OPINION:
As the 2024 Presidential race kicks into gear, so does polling season. It seems every organization has its own pollster and its own statistics. Major newspapers, broadcast networks, and even social media influencers must find that poll numbers get attention because all seem to use them. Would-be presidential candidates use polling, too, in an effort to gauge not only support for their candidacy but also what issues may resonate with voters.
Just because there are a lot of polls does not mean all are necessarily done scientifically, accurately or with rational questions. Two pollsters, TIPP and Rasmussen, have stood out over the past decade or more as the most accurate on federal issues. Many of the biggest names in the news have proven to be the least accurate prognosticators. You may recall in 2016, Reuters/Ipsos had Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 5%. So did the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The oft-cited Monmouth University poll had Mrs. Clinton winning by 6%.
Sometimes how a question is worded impacts the outcome. So rather than try and decipher the good polls from the bad and figure out the odd wording of certain questions, I will take this time to suggest my own poll of what I’m convinced Americans are actually thinking about and care about.
Let’s start with a couple of timely questions, asked as plainly as I can possibly make them.
Do you think the United States should release $6 billion dollars to get Iran to free five hostages? If America does give Iran access to $6 billion, does it encourage them and other American haters to kidnap/ detain more Americans in the future?
I’m willing to bet most folks with a 6th-grade education or more understand the concept of cause and effect. If someone is rewarded for a behavior, he will likely repeat that behavior in hopes of further reward. So it is with Iran. Free up $6 billion as part of a deal to get five people home, and guess what? You’ve just taught Iran there is a benefit to taking American hostages.
Next, let’s ask a couple of questions on the topic that seems to have gotten more ink (or pixels, as the case may be) than any other this year, gender issues. Should the United States military be spending its time, effort, resources and money on gender pronouns? Should high school boys be able to shower with high school girls, even if the girls object?
It’s tough to get 75% of people to agree about anything nowadays, but the last question would surely have an overwhelming majority of people agree. Transgender issues are often presented as if those choosing the odd alternative are perpetual victims, and no one else should be given any consideration. Find me a Dad who thinks his 16-year-old daughter should be naked in a locker room with teen boys, and I’ll show you a deadbeat Dad.
Americans are traditionally fiercely independent, which makes my fifth question all that much more interesting. If you are convinced that the sky is falling and climate change is going to destroy us all, God bless you for wanting to stop that train, but should the government be meddling with the center of American coolness, the automobile? Do you want the government to require car companies to switch to electric cars?
President Biden is pushing a policy that would have the effect of forcing American automakers to sell more than half of their cars as electric cars by the year 2030, and more than 67% of their cars sold by 2032 would be electric, regardless of whether the public wants it or not. What happened to a free market economy where the consumer could decide what he or she wanted? Joe Biden knows better than you do what you really need.
Never mind the fact that there is no meaningful electric car charging network in place. Never mind that long-distance trips will increase dramatically because of charge times. Never mind that electric battery vehicles underperform in extreme heat or extreme cold. Never mind that there is no disposal plan for all those batteries after they have lived their life. Joe Biden has determined it is for the best.
Speaking of Joe Biden, a straightforward question about his mental health seems like something most Americans, regardless of political party, should weigh in on. My poll question number looks like this: Do you think Joe Biden is a national security threat?
Actually, this one was asked recently in an online I&I/TIPP Poll. It asked 1,351 adults around the country: “How concerned are you that Biden’s age and mental capacity pose a national security threat?” Please keep in mind that I have already mentioned TIPP has a track record that arguably makes it the most accurate pollster in the country. This particular poll had a margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points.
The numbers were astounding. Seventy percent of all respondents said they were either “very concerned” (44%) or “somewhat concerned” (25%) about Joe Biden’s mental capacity and the threat it poses to national security. Yet he polls pretty much dead even with Donald Trump in a one-on-one match-up for 2024. If there were ever a time a third-party candidate wanted to give it a shot, it would seem this may be it.
Let’s finish up with a few easy, straightforward questions: Do you think our borders are secure? Do you think it matters? Do you think taxpayers should pay off student loans for the people who took out the loans and agreed to pay them back?
The border question couldn’t be more plain. Either you think America is secure, or you don’t. I would venture most don’t see border security as a great strength, but the second half might cause more of a split. Does it matter?
The student loan question, when floated as some version of “do you think student loans should be forgiven?” usually earns support. I would be willing to bet when people realize the loans don’t simply disappear but that you and I would be paying for them instead of the doctors and lawyers that took them out, that support will drop quite a bit.
Another simple and straightforward question: Do you think Republicans promoting an impeachment investigation are playing politics or genuinely think Joe Biden is/was corrupt?
Another TIPP poll found that fully 63% of voters say Biden breached the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which obliges people to declare foreign interests when he served as vice president and his son worked with the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma, but many still think Republicans in the House are simply trying to get revenge for the Trump impeachments.
Speaking of Mr. Trump, our final question: Do you think the charges against Donald Trump are playing politics, or do you think the DOJ and the Georgia State Attorney genuinely think Trump broke the law?
A significant chunk of the American public has a strong distaste for the 45th President, but even among his haters, many think the array of charges is politically motivated.
Maybe a look at these questions and the results of each might adjust the temperature, temperament and general direction of Washington.
Doubtful, of course, but maybe.
- Tim Constantine is a columnist with The Washington Times.
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