Jahan Dotson’s ‘breakout year’ still waiting to break out

ASHBURN — Jahan Dotson, appearing on a podcast last June, predicted big things were in store for him in the fall. The Washington Commanders wide receiver expressed annoyance that national analysts had seemingly overlooked him when discussing players who seemed to be on the verge of a breakout season.

“I’m never mentioned,” he said. 

Dotson compared the conversations — the slights — to the narrative surrounding him before the draft when he felt that he was the forgotten man in a loaded wide receiver class. So, Dotson, who actually was picked higher at No. 16 than experts projected, proved people wrong in his 2022 rookie season with an impressive seven-touchdown campaign.

He was ready to surprise the skeptics again this season. 

“Honestly, I feel like this is my breakout year,” Dotson told the 2nd Wind Podcast. “This is what I’ve been working hard for, and I’ve got to make them feel me.” 

Through three weeks, Dotson has barely been felt. 

As the Commanders prepare for Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles, getting more out of Dotson — and the rest of the wide receiver corps — would be helpful for an offense that took a beating during Washington’s blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills.

In three games, Dotson has caught 10 passes for 83 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s one more catch than at this point last year, but his yardage is down from 109 yards and scoring has disappeared after last year’s three touchdowns through Week 3. Those numbers were en route to a campaign that featured 35 receptions for 523 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games. 

Dotson’s dip in production isn’t entirely on him. A receiver is only as good as the quarterback willing to throw him the ball. And signal-caller Sam Howell hasn’t looked Dotson’s way as often as Carson Wentz did last year, with the second-year wideout seeing a slight dip in targets (16 in ‘23 from 18 in ‘22). The Commanders are also deploying a new scheme under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy that asks receivers to run different types of routes than last year.

But much of how Dotson’s season is perceived comes down to expectations. If people were expecting a breakout season, there’s naturally going to be some disappointment if that doesn’t happen. 

Then again, there’s still plenty of season left.  

“That’s just me having confidence in myself, obviously,” Dotson said Wednesday of his summer comments. “I have all the confidence in the world in myself. When it’s my time, I feel like it’s my time. Sometimes, you just got to wait your turn. 

“When that opportunity comes, you’ve got to be ready for it. That’s what I’m preparing for every single day, no matter when it’s going to be, whether it’s Week 4 or Week 15.”

Standing near his locker, Dotson didn’t express any frustration over how his season has started. Though all receivers want the ball, he acknowledged, Dotson said he’s not focusing too much on his production. Fellow wideout Terry McLaurin, who has 13 catches for 126 yards, said Dotson has done a good job of staying patient and understanding that receivers sometimes have slow starts. 

“He knows there are going to be ebbs and flows,” McLaurin said. “I’ve definitely been there, too. But it can change really fast.” 

The main difference in Dotson’s start is the way that he’s been targeted — and the routes he has to run. As a rookie, the Penn State product established himself as a standout red zone threat with his precise route running and sturdy hands. But according to NFL Savant, none of Dotson’s 16 targets this season have come in the red zone. Five of his seven touchdowns came in that area last year. 

When targeted, the ball travels significantly fewer yards through the air before it gets to Dotson. In 2022, Dotson’s average air yards per target was 14.7 — the fifth-most in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. This year, that number has fallen to 8.4 — an indication that Howell is throwing him the ball on shorter routes. And according to Pro Football Focus, Dotson hasn’t been targeted yet on a ball 20-plus yards down the field this season. Last year, those throws accounted for 30.4% of his targets. 

“It’s just a completely different offense from last year,” Doston said. “Last year, I got to be more of a red zone target for our offense and coach (Scott) Turner felt I was a big red zone threat.  This year, it’s a completely different offense. We’re just all adjusting to it. … How the offensive structure is built, everyone touches the ball.” 

That everyone touches the ball is a strength of the offense — when it’s rolling as planned. In Week 2, Washington set a franchise record with nine players having at least two receptions in a single game. 

But the lack of production from players like Dotson or McLaurin can be jarring when the unit is shut down like it was against the Bills. 

“I mean I just think overall I gotta do a better job of getting those guys the ball because they’re special players and we gotta just continue to spread the ball around,” Howell said.