Trump up big among Hispanics in GOP, but Biden dominates head-to-head matchup

Former President Donald Trump gets 50% of the support of Hispanic voters in a Republican primary but still trails President Biden by a wide margin in a general election matchup, according to a new poll released this week.

Noticias Univision, the Spanish-language network’s news division and the sponsor of the poll, also said the survey showed an increasingly complex voting calculus among Hispanics, with border security growing in importance, while immigrant rights slips as a voting issue.

Hispanic voters put controlling inflation and high prices at the top of their issues list, with 54% of voters citing it. But gun control surged to second place with 30% of voters listing it as a priority. Health care, affordable housing and climate change rounded out the top five.

The survey of 1,401 Hispanic voters was released just ahead of Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate, which Univision is co-hosting.

The poll took a deep dive into the GOP primary, finding Mr. Trump with a significant lead.

His 50% is trailed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 12%, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy with 9% and former Vice President Mike Pence with 6%.

Among all Hispanics, Mr. Trump holds a 36% favorability rating, which Noticias Univision said is better than he had when he left office in 2021. It’s also better than any of his fellow GOP candidates fared in the poll.

Still, in a head-to-head matchup with Mr. Biden, the current president collects 58% support to Mr. Trump’s 31%, with 11% undecided.

Curiously, when Univision asked voters about Mr. Biden versus an unnamed “Republican candidate,” the GOP pick did better than Mr. Trump, garnering 33% to Mr. Biden’s 57%.

In 2020, Mr. Trump collected 38% of the Hispanic vote, according to Pew’s validated voter study after the election.

As the 2024 race heats up, Noticias Univision said Democrats are in solid shape on the issues with Hispanics “supporting much of the White House agenda.”

That included support for banning semiautomatic “assault” rifles, imposing a minimum corporate tax and guaranteeing abortion access.

But Hispanics also said more border security is needed, and gave the GOP the edge on that question, 41% to 40% over Democrats.

Hispanics also supported granting citizenship rights to illegal immigrant “Dreamers” and opposed stripping birthright citizenship from children born to illegal immigrants in the future.

“The polling data suggests that Hispanics want a better-managed situation at the border — but not at the expense of the humanitarian treatment of migrants,” Univision concluded.

Overall, Hispanic voters gave Democrats an average of 55 out of 100 on a favorability scale. The GOP was rated at 44%.