U.S.-China rivalry reignites as new Thai government finds its footing

BANGKOK — China’s navy quietly sailed into the shallow, energy-rich Gulf of Thailand earlier this month for Blue Strike 2023, a joint naval exercise to increase Beijing’s influence with Thailand’s newly elected, military-backed civilian government, which is also a strategic U.S. treaty ally.

The new government and political era have familiar dynamics. Both China and the U.S. are seeking friends and influence as the civilian-led coalition government of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin settles into power after a decade of military dominance on the political scene.

Mr. Srettha is a wealthy real estate developer and an ally of polarizing former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a populist billionaire who was driven from office and eventually from the country by a military-led coup in 2006. With the restoration of civilian rule, Mr. Thaksin ended a decade of self-exile to return last month and face charges relating to his stormy tenure.

The new prime minister made his first political foray onto the international stage with an address Friday at the U.N. General Assembly in New York. He made contacts with top U.S. officials and representatives from Google, Microsoft, Tesla, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council.

Beijing has taken note. Chinese President Xi Jinping has invited the Thai prime minister to the Chinese capital for a three-day visit starting Oct. 8.

The U.S. and China are eyeing the new administration and its views on international investment, tourism, trade and weapons purchases. Although Mr. Srettha is a fresh face on the scene, his unwieldy 11-party coalition controversially includes a strong, military-linked party. The biggest winner of this spring’s election, the liberal Move Forward Party, was relegated to heading the opposition.

The new government has prioritized Thailand’s straggling economy, meaning foreign markets and investors will be courted assiduously.

“Thailand is like a sick person,” Mr. Srettha said on Sept. 11 in his first policy statement to the National Assembly. “Tourism and spending are recovering so slowly that there is the risk of economic recession.”

Washington and Beijing are scrutinizing the Thai military’s Sept. 1 list of promotions to look for any shifts in Thailand’s attempt to balance its relations with the two superpowers. The Biden administration could find friends in high places.

“The selection of Gen. Charoenchai Hinthao as army commander was a big win for military officials closer to the U.S.,” Paul Chambers, Naresuan University lecturer in Southeast Asian affairs, said in an interview. “The same can be said for the choice of Royal Thai Armed Forces Commander Gen. Songwit Noonpakdi and new Air Force Commander [Air Chief Marshal] Panpakdee Pattanakul, who favors U.S. F-16s and F-35s for Thailand.

“Only the Thai navy remains tilted toward China,” Mr. Chambers said.

The Pentagon is especially concerned about Bangkok’s military support for U.S. security interests amid rising clashes with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea and over the fate of Taiwan, which Beijing has vowed to eventually bring under its control.

“Thailand is trying to keep away from the U.S.-China differences about Taiwan,” Mr. Chambers said.

In 2003, President George W. Bush designated Thailand as a “non-NATO treaty ally.” The two nations’ militaries are closely linked after decades of training and experience.

Mr. Xi’s government has been exploiting fears that the U.S. is trying to force East Asia’s smaller nations to choose sides in a power game.

“Attempts to push for NATO-like [alliances] in the Asia-Pacific is a way of kidnapping regional countries and exaggerating conflicts and confrontations,” Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu said in June. Those alliances will “plunge the Asia-Pacific into a whirlpool of disputes and conflicts.”

“Against the backdrop of the Asia-Pacific currently facing some security challenges, China is willing to jointly maintain regional stability with Thailand and ensure lasting security in the region.”

China wants “more fruitful cooperation between the two militaries, especially between the two armies,” Mr. Li said.

Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former foreign minister, said, “Even though it is unlikely that we would see intentional U.S.-China military clashes in the region, conflicts may come about by accident when tensions are high.” He predicted that the Srettha government, like others in the region, would try to avoid offending either superpower.

“Thailand will try to maintain good relations with Washington and Beijing as much as possible …,” Mr. Kantathi said in an interview. “The Srettha government will likely continue the balanced hedging policy between China and the United States because such a policy enhances Thai business interests.”

Avoiding a tilt

The prime minister appears to agree.

“We have good relations with China and the United States,” Mr. Srettha told a recent forum. “We have to be neutral. Not leaning one way or the other.”

The continuing military influence inside the government could limit the prime minister’s powers. Mr. Srettha’s predecessor, Prayuth Chan-ocha, dominated the Thai political scene for nearly a decade after engineering another military coup in 2014. Mr. Prayuth did poorly in the May national election but emerged with unexpected clout and leverage in the lengthy, contentious coalition talks afterward.

“This is a coalition government comprising two main factions, one led by Thaksin Shinawatra and the other by Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, so it is likely that the meddling through of balancing relations with China, and with the USA, will likely continue,” another former foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, said in an interview.

Many see the seemingly agreeable Mr. Srettha as Mr. Thaksin’s puppet, but his experience in Bangkok’s luxury real estate market and international businesses may help him promote Thailand amid competition from investment-friendly, dynamic Southeast Asian neighbors.

“The U.S. is paying more attention to Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. Thailand is somewhat overlooked and ignored,” Mr. Kasit said.

“So it is up to the new Thai government to make itself heard.”

The good news for Washington, after decades of financial aid to Bangkok, is its favorable image among many Thai politicians.

“Not one Thai political party is anti-U.S.,” Mr. Kasit said.

China also has assets.

The Royal Thai Navy wants to purchase three Chinese submarines even though the U.S. is training Thai submariners.

“Thailand’s Beijing-leaning foreign policy began under [Mr. Thaksin] and has continued unabated under every Thai administration since,” Bangkok-based author Benjamin Zawacki said in an interview.

“Be mindful of the connection between the origin of Thailand’s initial pro-China leanings and who is now back in power,” Mr. Zawacki said.

China’s Sept. 3-10 annual Blue Strike joint naval exercise with Thailand reportedly included more than 2,500 personnel from both countries, a Chinese submarine, an amphibious dock landing ship, a guided-missile frigate and a supply ship.