Defense Department predicts China could hit U.S. with cyberattack

The Defense Department’s new cyber strategy warns that any hot conflict with China probably will result in digital attacks against the U.S. homeland.

To prevent combat, the U.S. intends to pair cyber operations with other tools to bolster the deterrence of digital attacks and avoid escalating tensions.

The People’s Republic of China routinely attempts hacks against the U.S. and allies to inform its preparations for war, according to the Defense Department. China’s plan for victory includes using its cyber capabilities to damage America’s ability to respond.

“In the event of conflict, the PRC likely intends to launch destructive cyberattacks against the U.S. homeland in order to hinder military mobilization, sow chaos, and divert attention and resources,” the Defense Department cyber strategy said. “It will also likely seek to disrupt key networks which enable Joint Force power projection in combat.”

Cyber professionals already have observed China engaged in activity to disrupt America’s ability to work with countries in Asia. In May, Microsoft said it discovered a stealthy China-sponsored cyber campaign focused on developing the capability to disrupt communications between the U.S. and the Asia region during future crises.

The unclassified summary of the Defense Department’s cyber strategy published in September said the U.S. government will use integrated deterrence to prevent any conflict from growing hot across the world.

“The department’s experiences have shown that cyber capabilities held in reserve or employed in isolation render little deterrent effect on their own,” the strategy said. “Instead, these military capabilities are most effective when used in concert with other instruments of national power, creating a deterrent greater than the sum of its parts.”

The U.S. government’s turn toward its allies and private industry partners to bolster cyber defenses represents a shift in the federal government’s thinking about fighting digital adversaries in a new era of competition with China and Russia.

“Distinct from previous iterations, the strategy commits to increasing our collective cyber resilience by building the cyber capability of allies and partners,” said Mieke Eoyang, deputy assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy, in a statement.

The strategy draws on lessons learned from how cyber has been used in Russia’s war in Ukraine, driving home the need for the U.S. to work closely with its allies, according to Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb.

NATO has a developed cyber defense and deterrence presence in Europe and counts 31 countries across the Continent and North America as members.

No such parallel organization of U.S. allies focused on cyber exists in Asia that would counter China. David Frederick, the National Security Agency’s China chief, said this month that the Pacific theater’s size and scale have presented challenges for his agency’s operations and support work.

Mr. Frederick said at an Intelligence and National Security Alliance event that the lack of a NATO-size coalition in Asia has made coordination across numerous time zones difficult, with the U.S. relying on one-on-one arrangements instead.

“The United States has a … growing number of multilateral engagements, but a lot of the alliance structure in the Pacific is bilateral, unlike NATO in Europe,” Mr. Frederick said. “And so that presents its own kind of challenges in terms of managing efforts and priorities.”

Mr. Frederick’s team is working on a new China strategy for the NSA to be completed this fall.

U.S. officials made numerous trips to Asia in recent months to stave off conflict. For example, Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, leader of the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, visited Singapore in March while America’s first cyberspace ambassador, Nathaniel C. Fick, traveled to the Indo-Pacific in April.

Last year, American officials conducted a cyber training exercise, Cyber Flag, in Virginia with 250 cyber professionals from eight countries focused on the Asian Pacific region.