Manchin makes tortured calculations about risking a reelection run in Trump country

A version of this story appeared in the On Background newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive On Background delivered directly to your inbox each Friday.

CHARLES TOWN, W. Va. — He’s a nuisance to the White House, unapologetically critical of his Democratic Party and increasingly alienated from voters in his home state that has turned bright red. 

And yet, Republicans know there are no assurances to ousting Sen. Joe Manchin III, despite his ranking as one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats in 2024.

But there’s no guarantee he’ll run. He squeaked through to reelection in 2018. Since then, former President Donald Trump dominated the state in 2020 with a nearly 40-point margin of victory.

Mr. Manchin, who insists he is an independent voice and not a “Washington Democrat,” also appears out of step with Democratic voters in his state.

“There are a whole lot of Democrats in this state that think he’s too conservative. But I think most of them understand that if it weren’t for that, he wouldn’t have a chance,” said John Doyle, president of the Jefferson County Democratic Association and a former longtime West Virginia state lawmaker. “As long as most Democrats believe he’s the best we’re gonna get, then they’ll support him. He then has free rein to try and persuade as many moderate Republicans as he can.”

Mr. Manchin’s 2018 election results in Jefferson County, located in the state’s panhandle roughly two hours northwest of Washington, closely resembled his narrow statewide victory. He won reelection in the state by less than 20,000 votes or just 3.3 percentage points.

This election cycle, Mr. Manchin’s seat could have far broader implications: deciding which party controls the chamber. Democrats’ one-seat majority means Republicans need a net gain of only one or two seats, depending on whether Democrats retain the White House and the vice president’s role as the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

Mr. Manchin says a decision on whether he’ll seek another six-year term will come later this year as he flirts with a third-party presidential run and vows an “unrelenting fight” against Mr. Biden’s landmark tax-and-climate law known as the Inflation Reduction Act. He also provided the key vote needed to pass the tax and climate bill without any GOP support.

His criticism of his party, a tilt back toward the ideological center and uncertainty about his political future have placed Mr. Manchin in the spotlight. That’s why it’s obvious he’ll run again, Mr. Doyle said.

“He’s just trying to demonstrate he believes that we got to get to the center,” Mr. Doyle said. “I agree with him about that.”

Russell Bissett, a 76-year-old West Virginia Republican who was selling Trump apparel at the recent Jefferson County Fair, said Mr. Manchin leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent could persuade him to vote for Mr. Manchin, despite the senator’s work on the Inflation Reduction Act. Mr. Manchin has said he’s “seriously thinking” about such a move.

“I might consider him. I like Manchin,” Mr. Bissett said. “I don’t know him well, but I met him. He seems like a really nice guy. I think he just got screwed [on the Inflation Reduction Act]. … He should have never believed Biden.”

Alan Engelberg, a retired physician, is among the West Virginia Democrats who feel Mr. Manchin is too conservative but is the party’s only hope for keeping the seat blue.

“If he’s going to be the Democratic nominee and we want to keep the Senate in the right place, I definitely would support him. We would do what we need to to help him,” Mr. Engelberg said. “I understand he wants to be as middle of the road as possible. I’m not that much of a middle-of-the-roader. I don’t know if he really understands what climate change is all about or what it’s doing.”

A wild card in the forthcoming race will also be the criminal cases against Mr. Trump. It could boost Republican candidates in ruby-red West Virginia, similar to the increased national support the ex-president has received in the GOP presidential primary, said Jefferson County Republican Executive Committee Chair Steven Roberts.

He said that a lot of Republican voters think the justice system has been weaponized against Republicans. “It’s basically inspiring a lot of backlash against the current administration,” Mr. Roberts said.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, the leading candidate for the Republican nomination for Senate, said Mr. Manchin presents a “formidable candidate for anybody.”

But with Mr. Manchin’s approval rating underwater, hypothetical matchups show him losing to Mr. Justice.

“I don’t think Joe Manchin will run against me. I think what Joe Manchin wants to do is to punch his ticket,” Mr. Justice told The Washington Times. “Joe Manchin wants to run for president as an independent. The fantasy tour won’t last long. He’ll go out looking like a centrist and can go on a book tour, become a CNN analyst, make a lot of money and fade off into the sunset.”

His only election loss came during the 1996 Democratic primary for governor, an office he finally won in 2004.

Mr. Manchin told The Times that he’s no closer to making a reelection decision but argued representing an increasingly red state “wouldn’t protect” his GOP opponents, including Mr. Justice. 

“I’ve had a red state for a long time. I’ll make that decision with time, but that wouldn’t prevent me [from running],” Mr. Manchin said. “It’s a wide-open race — period.”

Mr. Manchin reportedly sought recent advice about his future from various figures, including former President Bill Clinton, according to The Washington Post. The outlet said he was considering three main options, all of which suggest Mr. Manchin is likely to leave the Democratic Party: run for reelection as an independent, run for president as a No Labels third-party candidate or retire from politics.

Another potential indicator Mr. Manchin won’t retire: He’s raised a whopping $10.5 million and had nearly $10.8 million in cash on hand as of the end of June, according to campaign filings with the Federal Elections Commission. Without officially entering the race, Mr. Manchin has raised 5 to 10 times more than his GOP challengers who are actively campaigning.

Mr. Justice, a billionaire coal baron, will need to overcome his own vulnerabilities and defeat Rep. Alex Mooney in the primary before duking it out with a Democrat in the general election.

Mr. Justice endorsed Mr. Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus in 2021, putting him at odds with his party over the behemoth spending package. He didn’t vote for Mr. Trump in 2016, when he was a Democrat; and he’s created enemies in policy fights with state Republican lawmakers, resulting in roughly 30 state lawmakers endorsing Mr. Mooney for Senate.

Mr. Mooney accused Mr. Justice of being nothing more than a Democrat disguised as a Republican. Mr. Mooney is a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, and he’s backed by the Club for Growth and Trump allies such as Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

“This man is a tax and spend liberal. He’s, frankly, not much different than Joe Manchin. We want to get rid of Joe Manchin, not have a liberal Republican version of Joe Manchin,” Mr. Mooney told The Times. “Jim Justice didn’t even vote for President Trump in 2016. He ran as a Democrat. Trump won, and then he kind of led with Trump after that for pragmatic purposes.”

Mr. Justice called those assertions “just plain garbage.” He underwent a Trump-inspired party flip in 2017 at a rally with the former president and touted his close ties to the Trump family.

“I strongly believe that President Trump will endorse me,” Mr. Justice said. “In my world, he’s the king. He’s got plenty of time to decide what he wants to do in regard to me.”

Mr. Mooney has raised north of $2 million and had $1.5 million cash on hand at the end of June. Club for Growth and the Rand Paul-aligned Protect Freedom PAC are putting $13.5 million behind Mr. Mooney.

Mr. Justice has raised $935,000 and had less than $809,000 in the bank but will receive financial backing from Senate Republicans’ fundraising arm. He’s self-funded past campaigns but is pledging not to do so in the Senate race.

Past polls have indicated Mr. Manchin would lose to Mr. Justice and beat Mr. Mooney. Non-partisan election forecasters like Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball give a slight advantage to Republicans picking up the seat, while the Cook Political Report rates it a toss-up.

West Virginia state Sen. Patricia Rucker, who endorsed Mr. Mooney, emphasized Mr. Manchin won’t be easy to topple thanks to the bipartisan admiration he’s earned over his decades-long political career.

“If the Republican [nominee] is someone that voters trust, I think the Republican would beat Joe Manchin. If they don’t, then I think Joe Manchin has the chance to beat the Republican,” Ms. Rucker said. “The one thing you can say about Manchin — he’s not dishonest. He’s someone who says and does what he believes. He’s taken very big political risks, and we do appreciate that. But at the end of the day, some of his votes are not things that help West Virginia.”