OPINION:
Chinese President Xi Jinping missed last week’s Group of 20 summit in New Delhi.
Speculation is rife about his surprising absence. The move reflects the increasingly intense competition between the world’s two most populous countries for leadership in the Global South, on top of their already frosty relations amid trade tensions and a protracted border dispute.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and the G20 have all served as arenas for jockeying between China and India. Jealous of India’s influence, Mr. Xi would want to ensure that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn’t get everything he wants in hosting the G20 — arguably the world’s most important intergovernmental organization — and he believed his absence would serve that purpose.
Mr. Xi may have miscalculated. At the very least, it became an opportunity for the Global North to consciously and deliberately support India as the leader of the Global South. And in many ways, it already is.
Both China and India play significant roles in security and economic alliances such as the SCO and BRICS, which are widely seen as forums for challenging the U.S.-led Western political and economic order and seeking a multipolar geopolitical landscape.
Although Russia, a perennial challenger of the world order and aspirant to global hegemony, has been deeply involved in such international mechanisms, its importance lags far behind that of China and India due to its entanglement in its war in Ukraine and the damage to its international moral standing caused by its aggression against sovereign nations.
The competition between China and India for leadership in the Global South is the most important competition in the world today, apart from the competition between the United States and China. Its outcome will affect not only the future of the Global South, but also the future of the world order.
The developed democratic world, led by the United States, has already felt challenges from the Global South, especially with the recent expansion of the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to include six major developing countries, including the West’s adversary Iran.
This expansion has increased pressure on the developed world. But due to the almost irreconcilable contradictions in basic values and interests within the BRICS group and the lack of widely accepted rules for settling internal disputes, the Western world largely perceives it as incapable of becoming a significant.
But in the face of today’s global diplomatic, economic and security challenges, no single power bloc, such as the G7 or even the G20, seems capable of addressing them effectively on its own. The developed democracies (the Global North), the leading force in the current world order, cannot and should not dream of maintaining their global primacy through arrogance, complacency or isolationism.
Instead, the Global North should address the concerns of the world’s developing countries and support their political and economic development while building and expanding mutually beneficial economic relations and reforming itself to gradually merge into a rules-based, liberal, and more equitable international order.
And the cornerstone of this policy is not short-term interests but fundamental universal values.
That was precisely what the theme of the G20 Summit, “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam,” was intended to convey.
Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam — a Sanskrit phrase found in Hindu texts that can be loosely translated into English as “One Earth, One Family, One Future” — is a core philosophy of India.
Interestingly, China has objected to India’s inclusion of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam at the bottom of the G20 logo. China is the only participating country to object to the use of the phrase. What China objects to is not the slogan per se, but the very concept of universal values and rights that it implies.
This is precisely where the China-led and India-led Global South diverge in their development paths and the difference they would ultimately make.
The wise and visionary policymakers of the Global North must recognize this essential difference. India is the world’s largest democracy — and, despite serious flaws, it is fundamentally a liberal, democratic country.
One of India’s tremendous socioeconomic assets is its cultural and religious pluralism and diversity. India’s democratic institutions and free press are a model for other developing nations, demonstrating that economic development and democratic governance can coexist.
In contrast, China is the world’s most powerful enemy of democracy and rules-based liberal norms. As a recent Economist article titled “China’s Message to the Global South” notes, China is leading the global fight against universal values.
If President Biden’s autocracies-versus-democracies argument is genuine, the Global North must consciously adopt the most fateful strategy with respect to the Global South: helping to strengthen India as the leader of the developing world.
India’s balanced vision for BRICS seeks constructive collaboration among developing nations without antagonizing major world powers. This nuanced approach stands in stark contrast to China’s confrontational stance, which seeks to turn BRICS into an anti-Western bloc.
India’s diplomatic acumen, history of nonalignment, and commitment to multilateralism make it an ideal leader to promote global cooperation. In this context, India is rightly seen as an irreplaceable bridge between the Global South and developed democratic countries.
India’s leadership in BRICS is deeply rooted in developmental issues, which fits perfectly with the original goals of the coalition. This is in stark contrast to China, which seems more interested in using BRICS as a tool for geopolitical maneuvering than for the betterment of the Global South. India’s focus on sustainable development, poverty alleviation and technological cooperation aligns well with the goals of other developing nations in the coalition.
Moreover, from a security perspective, if the U.S. and other Western democracies are confident in their assessment that China is the greatest threat to world peace, then consciously supporting India as the leader of the Global South to contain China’s influence and counterbalance Chinese military power is the optimal strategy for the Global North in the face of China’s rapid economic, technological and military rise.
India has consistently demonstrated restraint and a commitment to peaceful coexistence, starkly contrasting China’s aggressive territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and its border disputes with neighboring countries. By supporting India, the West would be investing in a force for good that can ensure regional and, by extension, global stability.
India’s approach in BRICS serves as a counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness. This strategic positioning could benefit Western interests, especially as consensus within BRICS becomes more challenging due to the addition of new members with divergent interests.
Particularly in the realm of Indo-Pacific security, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the “Quad”) stands as a robust framework uniting Australia, India, Japan and the United States. Among these four nations, India, while often out of step on certain military issues, is poised to play an indispensable role in one of the most significant security challenges the Quad may face: a potential Chinese incursion into Taiwan.
India has the third-largest defense budget in the world and is on track to have the third-largest gross domestic product. By extending support to Taiwan and bolstering its international standing, India could significantly enhance U.S. deterrence efforts to prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. In this context, India’s pivotal role in safeguarding Taiwan is poised to become a linchpin in the Quad’s defense strategy.
While concerns have been raised about the potential negative impact of India’s leadership in the Global South on the unification of the world’s democracies — due in part to India’s morally neutral stance regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict — the real problem would arise if a totalitarian state such as China were to dominate the Global South.
The choice between India and China for leadership in BRICS and the Global South is not just a matter of preference but a global imperative. India’s democratic values, balanced approach, and commitment to development and peace make it an essential choice.
The West must recognize this and act accordingly to ensure a balanced, peaceful and sustainable global order. By favoring India, the West would not only be aligning itself with its own democratic values but also making a wise investment in the future of global stability and peace.
• Jianli Yang is the founder and president of Citizen Power Initiatives for China and the author of “It’s Time for a Values-Based ’Economic NATO.’” Sean Woo, former chief of staff of the U.S. Helsinki Commission, is president of the Center for Civic Culture Studies.
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