A long, strange week in Bangkok caps a long, strange odyssey for Thailand’s Thaksin

BANGKOK — President George W. Bush, on a visit to Bangkok in 2003, designated Thailand as a “non-NATO treaty ally” and congratulated Thaksin Shinawatra, the popular civilian prime minister in a country long led by military-dominated governments.

Three years later, a desperate, panicking Mr. Thaksin secretly alerted Mr. Bush about “a threat to democracy in Thailand” by “extraconstitutional tactics” just before a military coup toppled his regime. He then fled the country ahead of a slew of corruption allegations.

The long, strange trip of Thailand’s most enigmatic and polarizing political figure got a little longer and stranger after a whirlwind week last month that could reshape the political landscape after nearly a decade of stultifying military rule.

In the space of five days, Mr. Thaksin voluntarily ended 15 years of self-imposed exile, was promptly jailed for a long-standing eight-year sentence on financial corruption charges, was moved to a hospital a day later complaining of illness, appealed to King Maha Vajiralongkorn for judicial leniency, and had his sentence reduced to just a year with the possibility to apply for parole in three months.

“Thai-style democracy” is tricky, opaque and imaginative, but many here are reading the bewildering series of events as a kind of symbolic closure on the political schism that has hung over the country since the 2006 putsch that drove Mr. Thaksin from power and soon from the country.

Hours after the 74-year-old billionaire returned home and was arrested, the parliament ended a three-month standoff and elected Mr. Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party ally, the politically inexperienced real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin, 60, as prime minister.

In one sign of a truce in the country’s endemic power battles, Mr. Srettha secured his prime ministry by agreeing to include United Thai and Palang Pracharath in his 11-party coalition. The two political parties are led by military figures, including the outgoing prime minister and defense minister, key collaborators in the 2014 coup and the military-dominated government that came to power.

Mr. Srettha officially takes power when his already squabbling Cabinet choices are presented for King Vajiralongkorn to endorse, expected later this month. Mr. Thaksin, meanwhile, is undergoing what appears to be a striking personal and professional rehabilitation.

Mr. Thaksin is working alongside the military and conservatives who overthrew him to campaign against their new common adversary: the Move Forward Party and its fiercely outspoken leader, Pita Limjaroenrat. Mr. Pita is a popular, liberal politician who has challenged the power of the military and the royalist establishment.

Mr. Pita was on his way to becoming prime minister after winning the biggest share of votes in May’s national parliamentary elections. He campaigned to slash the military’s political powers, budget and lucrative commercial activities and to end the draft. He also wanted to weaken the royal defamation law, which imprisons people for up to 15 years for criticizing the monarchy. Critics say the law has been used to stifle politically dissenting voices.

Mr. Pita’s proposed coalition government could not secure enough support in the government-appointed Senate. He was relegated to the opposition while Mr. Srettha and Pheu Thai announced a government lineup more amenable to royalist and military conservatives. Mr. Thaksin’s blessing of the arrangement was considered critical.

“Everyone knows that Thaksin has returned to Thailand having a mission to fight politics against the Move Forward Party,” Rangsit University political science lecturer Wanwichit Boonprong said in an interview. The party “was viewed by conservatives as a more dangerous threat than Thaksin and Pheu Thai.”

“His return is like receiving a special signal for his Pheu Thai Party to take on an important mission, even if he is in prison for criminal cases. If there was a special mission order from Thaksin given to him, Mr. Srettha would most certainly be forced to accept it unconditionally,” Mr. Wanwichit said.

Kasit Piromya, a foreign minister in an anti-Thaksin government from 2008 to 2011, agreed.

“Inside the Pheu Thai Party, I believe Mr. Thaksin and his wife are in control,” Mr. Kasit said in an interview. “They are the owners of the party. Mr. Srettha is only a tool or a puppet.”

How all this will sit with Mr. Pita’s ardent and sizable youthful electoral base is an open question, he said.

“Thaksin and Srettha, and all the conservative elements, now have a formidable force to reckon with, namely, the Move Forward Party and the younger generation who want change,” Mr. Kasit said.

Key role

Mr. Thaksin’s role, if and when he finishes his jail time, will be key, analysts say.

“Formally, de jure, Srettha is in charge. De facto, it is Thaksin, except for economic policy,” Paul Chambers, Naresuan University lecturer in Southeast Asian affairs, said in an interview. “This was one of the demands that Srettha had to become a prime ministerial candidate. He wanted to gain control over, and lead, Thai economic policy.”

The week’s events appeared to be carefully choreographed. When Mr. Thaksin’s private jet arrived in Bangkok on Aug. 22, authorities allowed him to thank hundreds of supporters at the airport before taking him to the grim Bangkok Remand Prison.

Hours later, officials said, Mr. Thaksin was transferred across town to the Police General Hospital’s intermediate care unit to treat his heart and lung disease, high blood pressure and a herniated disc. Almost immediately, relatives and lawyers began visiting him at the hospital.

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, who is also acting justice minister, told The Associated Press that Mr. Thaksin was not given special treatment. He insisted that Mr. Thaksin would be treated as a normal convict and would be returned to prison to serve his term once his health issues cleared up. Mr. Wissanu will be out of his job when the Srettha government is sworn in, AP noted.

Thailand’s U.S.-trained military has dominated politics in this Buddhist-majority Southeast Asian nation through more than a dozen coups since World War II. Thai politics this century has largely been defined by the clash between the army and Mr. Thaksin, his political family’s dynastic heirs and their pro-Thaksin “Red Shirt” street supporters.

The military, led by army chief and outgoing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, staged a coup in 2014 against the government of Mr. Thaksin’s elected sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Ms. Yingluck remains an international fugitive dodging convictions on charges of her administration’s corruption.

She posted a video tearfully hugging her brother farewell in Singapore when he flew to Bangkok late last month but did not accompany him home.

Mr. Thaksin was the man the military loved to hate. He was frequently demonized after his 2001 landslide election victory as prime minister.

The junta justified its 2006 coup by citing the Thaksin government’s alleged financial corruption, disrespect for the monarchy and an anti-drug campaign that resulted in 2,500 extrajudicial deaths.

Today, Mr. Thaksin has a new enemy: “the very large and very popular Move Forward Party, which detests him now that Pheu Thai made a deal with military parties, and liberals within Pheu Thai itself, who are frustrated also that the deal occurred,” Mr. Chambers said.

In his role collaborating with the military, royalists and other conservatives against Mr. Pita’s reform campaigns, Mr. Thaksin will not be as strong as he was during his authoritarian prime ministry.

“He has to share power with the conservative and military establishment,” Mr. Kasit said. “He has to rebuild his power base, as many of his Red Shirt supporters have deserted him or become disillusioned with his compromise with the military establishment.”

The compromise allowed Mr. Srettha to nail down the Senate and House majority that Mr. Pita repeatedly failed to secure for his proposed government. Lawmakers last month voted 482-164, with 81 abstentions, to approve the Srettha government, well above the 376 votes needed.