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President Biden, in his prime-time address to the nation this month, called America the “arsenal of democracy,” evoking President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s message to a nation emerging from the Great Depression that it had the industrial base and know-how to arm Britain and other countries fighting Nazi Germany.
“Just as in World War II, today, patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom,” Mr. Biden said Oct. 19 in remarks from the Oval Office.
Like the days before the U.S. entered World War II, countries asking for America’s help are questioning the Pentagon’s ability to meet their needs.
Conflicts in Ukraine and Israel have required some logistical backing and filling with uncertain end dates for planners.
In January, the Pentagon dipped into a little-known stockpile earmarked for Israel to help Ukraine meet its urgent need for artillery ammunition to continue its nearly year-old fight against Russian invaders.
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The munitions were intended to support future U.S. and allied military needs in the Middle East, but Ukrainian troops were expending thousands of artillery rounds a day to claw back territory from Moscow.
Then came Oct. 7, when Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip launched a devastating rampage across southern Israel, killing more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians, while taking hundreds of others hostage. Now, the Defense Department is scrambling to direct the artillery ammunition back to Israel to support an expected ground invasion of Gaza.
Defense Department officials said Tuesday that increasing munitions for Israel would not compromise U.S. support for Ukraine or other potential global flashpoints, such as Taiwan.
Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said the U.S. has been working closely with the nation’s munitions industry to ramp up production of 155 mm artillery ammunition.
“We are confident that we have what we need to be able to support [Israel and Ukraine] while at the same time ensuring that our military readiness stays at the threshold that it needs to,” Gen. Ryder told reporters. “We will not sacrifice our own military readiness when it comes to defending the nation.”
Ukraine’s and Israel’s munitions requirements do not present much conflict for U.S. planners. The two allies are fighting different kinds of wars and have different needs, military analysts said.
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Israel wants precision-guided munitions and Tamir interceptor missiles for its Iron Dome air defense system, which Ukraine doesn’t have.
“Over time, there will be a growing overlap between what Ukraine needs and what Israel needs, but that will be manageable,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
The Defense Department acknowledges that Ukraine and Israel require steady supplies of 155 mm artillery ammunition. The need is especially dire for Ukraine, whose troops are burning through 6,000 to 8,000 artillery rounds every day, said retired Marine Corps Col. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
“The Ukrainians are using a lot of ammunition. I think there’s going to be a crunch point, particularly now that Israel seems to be getting 155 mm ammunition,” he said. “I wasn’t expecting [Israel] to need [155 mm ammunition] for at least a month. Countries usually have at least two weeks or a month of ammunition on hand.”
The U.S. defense industry has raced to expand its capacity to manufacture artillery shells, doubling its monthly production over the past six months to about 28,000 rounds. It is on pace to reach 57,000 monthly by the spring and 100,000 per month by fiscal year 2025, Mr. Bowman said.
“What happens in 2025 is not going to help Israel and Ukraine anytime soon,” Mr. Bowman said. “But because Israel’s demands are not going to be anywhere close to Ukraine’s demands, and because of the increased production capacity, I believe this can be managed.”
Long-standing concerns
The depth of the Pentagon’s arsenal and the ability of America’s defense base to rebuild stressed inventories have been constant concerns for military analysts since long before the Israel-Hamas war.
Maiya Clark, a senior researcher for The Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, wrote in an analysis for The Washington Times in February that “the U.S. has fewer munitions than you might think — and that’s a problem.”
Ms. Clark noted that the early months of the Ukraine war after Russia’s February 2022 invasion rapidly drew down key Pentagon weapons categories. She said U.S. defense contractors were not in a position to make up the shortfall.
“The U.S. began sending military aid to Ukraine early last February,” Ms. Clark wrote at the time. “By April, our stocks of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles had been depleted by a third.”
Still in question is what will happen in the north of Israel, where Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters are threatening to launch a major fight if Israel Defense Forces troops move into Gaza.
“Obviously, that would increase Israel’s needs for all kinds of things — including 155 mm ammunition,” Mr. Bowman said. “Israel is going to need air defense capacity and precision-guided munitions.”
Political dysfunction in Washington is also playing a role. Mr. Biden’s speech included an appeal for a $106 billion package with emergency aid for Ukraine and Israel and funding for the U.S. border with Mexico. Congress has not moved on the request because of a House Republican struggle to elect a speaker and resume legislative business.
Mr. Cancian said he believes the Pentagon is shipping Ukraine all of the 155 mm ammunition produced domestically every month. He said the U.S. military needs about 100,000 artillery rounds per year for training and is likely dipping into its stock to remain supplied.
“If the war [in Israel] goes on for a while, then it’s going to be a different story,” he said. “After a couple of weeks, they’re going to start needing more items: drones, counterdrone technology [and] ground-launched precision munitions.”
Some countries that weren’t inclined to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia may be willing to provide artillery ammunition to Israel while the U.S. juggles support for Israel and Ukraine, helps Taiwan fend off encroachment from China and conducts a major military modernization program, Mr. Bowman said.
NATO’s most senior military commander warned European officials at the Warsaw Security Forum this month that ammunition supplies are drying up as alliance nations send military aid to Ukraine.
“We’ve started to give away [ammunition] from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe, and therefore, the bottom of the barrel is now visible,” said Adm. Rob Bauer of the Royal Netherlands Navy. “We need the [defense] industry to ramp up production at a much higher tempo, and we need large volumes.”
Mr. Cancian said it made sense to dip into the U.S. ammunition stockpile in Israel to help Ukraine with its existential fight against Russia. The munitions hadn’t been used in years, and Kyiv was frantically beating back a massive onslaught.
“I think it was the right thing to do. It’s just that the world didn’t cooperate,” Mr. Cancian said.
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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