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House Republicans’ razor-thin majority is slipping away in courtrooms while they argue about a new speaker as redistricting lawsuits in a half-dozen states threaten to make it easier for Democrats to win back control in 2024.
A handful of lawsuits challenging congressional district maps could give Democrats an advantage in as many as 10 House races, enough to easily overtake the Republicans’ five-seat advantage.
Republicans also are poised to pick up seats thanks to redistricting court battles, particularly in North Carolina. It could make the outcomes in all the cases close to a wash for both parties, some analysts say.
Other analysts say the net gain could favor Democrats under a scenario that would make it more difficult for Republicans to keep control of the House if court decisions are handed down and implemented in time for the November 2024 elections.
The impact could be significant, said Erin Covey, an analyst at the nonpartisan Inside Elections.
“Republicans only have a five-seat majority right now, so every single case in all of these states could make a decisive impact on their ability to hold the House next year,” she said. “All of these battles definitely matter.”
Court cases in New York, Florida, Georgia and Louisiana could shave off Republicans’ narrow advantage if the redistricting decisions favor Democrats.
John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which fights Republican gerrymandering, said up to eight states could put into place new congressional maps before the 2024 elections.
“Given Republicans’ slim five-seat majority, that means redistricting will determine who can win the House majority in 2024,” Mr. Bisognano said.
Many of the court cases involve Democratic challenges to Republican gerrymandering. Both major parties try to gain political advantage when carving out voting districts.
A three-judge panel in Alabama this month created a district likely to produce an additional Democratic-leaning congressional seat in 2024. In New York, Democrats are fighting to redraw competitive district maps that could help them flip up to a half-dozen seats. A hearing is set for next month in the state’s court of appeals.
In Georgia, a federal court ruling is expected this fall in a lawsuit challenging Republican-drawn congressional maps that could give Democrats an additional House seat.
Legal cases in Florida and Louisiana are challenging district maps drawn by Republicans.
House Republicans are flailing without a speaker for a third week, and intraparty discord is almost certain to reverberate into the 2024 elections.
The lack of a speaker has paralyzed the House and prevented consideration of critical legislation to fund the government and aid Israel in its war against the terrorist organization Hamas.
The Democrats’ House campaign arm highlighted in a news release “the most extreme, dysfunctional House Republican conference ever” and promoted their own party’s unity.
Republicans say the redistricting battles add to the threat to their control of the House.
“A lot of things could affect the outcome of the House majority,” said former Rep. John Faso, who represented New York’s 19th District from 2017 until 2019.
Mr. Faso and other New York Republicans are fighting Democratic efforts to throw out the state’s congressional district map drawn by a court-appointed expert before the 2022 elections.
The expert’s map made several districts far more competitive, and the new lines helped Republicans flip four congressional seats. Those Republican wins ultimately played a pivotal role in Republicans’ win of a narrow majority in the House that Democrats are eager to reverse.
Dave Wasserman, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, called New York “the linchpin of Democrats’ bid to retake the House in 2024.”
Democrats say the 2022 map was intended to be temporary and want to redraw it for 2024.
The state’s highest court is set to hear the case on Nov. 15.
“If we were to lose the case, then that would be an open invitation to the legislature to try to gerrymander the districts again,” Mr. Faso said.
In North Carolina, Republicans plan to take advantage of favorable court redistricting decisions.
State Republicans last week released a new congressional map for 2024 that likely would flip three or four Democratic-held seats.
The Republican-led legislature was able to draw lines favoring the party after an April decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court that threw out a ruling outlawing gerrymandered voting maps.
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
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