Pentagon warns risky and coercive China air encounters could trigger a war

China is engaged in a systematic program of military intimidation and coercion involving dangerous jet intercepts of U.S. and allied aircraft that could trigger a U.S.-China conflict, the Pentagon’s senior policymaker for Asia said Tuesday.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner told reporters the Chinese military is engaged in a coordinated campaign featuring “risky and coercive” actions by jet fighters that have made close passes to U.S. and allied aircraft flying in international airspace.

More than 180 incidents involving U.S. aircraft have taken place, mainly over the South China Sea and East China Sea, since 2021. The number over just the past two years is more than occurred during the entire decade prior to 2021.

The incidents have included what Mr. Ratner said were “reckless maneuvers” by Chinese Su-27 and J-16 jets flying very close to, or in front of, patrolling U.S. aircraft. In some cases, the Chinese jets released chaff or flares that could have damaged the engines of the U.S. aircraft.

When added to an additional number of dangerous intercepts involving allied aircraft, the total number of risky incidents is nearly 300, Mr. Ratner said.

“The bottom line is that in many cases, this type of operational behavior can cause accidents, and dangerous accidents can lead to inadvertent conflict,” he told reporters at the Pentagon.

Mr. Ratner’s remarks came as the Defense Department declassified 14 videos of the encounters dating to 2022, along with still photographs.

A Ukraine-Israel factor

Admiral John C. Aquilino, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, appeared alongside Mr. Ratner on Tuesday.

He told reporters his forces are watching for signs China could exploit the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel to take military action against Taiwan.

“Historically, certainly all nations look at what’s going on in the geopolitical space, in the military space, and I would expect there to be lessons learned,” Adm. Aquilino said when asked if China could use the current period to attack Taiwan.

Adm. Aquilino declined to discuss intelligence regarding any Chinese military activities related to such an attack.

The four-star admiral said Indo-Pacific Command forces are structured to deter Chinese attacks, and win a conflict if deterrence fails.

Deterrence and preparations for conflict “go on each and every day in Indo-Pacom and, and we would expect all nations to be watching these actions, and then determining how that best fits into their future [plans],” he said. “That said, my forces are ready today.”

Adm. Aquilino said no U.S. equipment or forces have been moved from the Pacific region to support U.S. military missions aiding Ukraine and Israel.

“The Indo Pacific Command has two aircraft carriers, right now at sea, as well, along with a large portion of the joint force executing deterrence missions in my theater,” he said.

Adm. Aquilino also said he has standing requests for talks with regional commanders in China, but the requests have been ignored.

With regard to the dangerous aerial encounters between People’s Liberation Army aircraft and U.S. and allied surveillance and maritime patrol aircraft, the admiral said he is most concerned about the potential for an aerial collision.

Such a mid-air collision between a Chinese jet and U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance plane in 2001 set off an international crisis.

“Those accidents could lead to miscalculation,” Adm. Aquilino said. “We must prevent these from happening in the theater.”

He added that not all of the 180 encounters involving U.S. aircraft were unsafe and unprofessional, but that all involved “really concerning behavior.”

“People’s lives are at risk,” the admiral said. “Flying off my wing at 15 feet for 45 minutes has too much of a chance to lead to an accident.”

Mr. Ratner said that in January an armed PLA jet fighter flew within 30 feet of a U.S. surveillance aircraft over the South China Sea. That incident followed another dangerous PLA intercept weeks before.

The activities are described in a forthcoming annual Pentagon report on the Chinese military. Mr. Ratner said the report describes a “centralized and concerted campaign to perform these risky behaviors in order to coerce a change in lawful U.S. operational activity, and that of U.S. allies and partners.”

Air, land and sea

Mr. Ratner said dangerous encounters between U.S. and Chinese assets are not limited to the skies, as Chinese forces are also engaged in coercive naval and land activities.

“We’re seeing this behavior on the water in the East China Sea, in the South China Sea; we’re seeing it against allies and partners, not just the United States; we’re seeing it on land against our Indian partners,” he said.

During a joint U.S. and Canadian warship transit through the Taiwan Strait, a PLA ship sailed directly in front of a U.S. ship, causing it to change course to avoid a collision.

China also used coast guard vessels aiming water hoses in an attempt to block Philippines vessels from resupplying a ground ship used as a base at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea’s Spratlys islands.

China has claimed its aerial activities are an attempt to stop close-in surveillance by the spy planes, despite the planes flying in international airspace.

Mr. Ratner emphasized that current U.S. policy that the flights are legal under international law will continue.

A Canadian CP-140 aircraft this week was intercepted dangerously close by a Chinese jet over the South China Sea, according to video released by the Canadian government.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the Canadian aircraft illegally entered Chinese airspace over what it calls the Diaoyu Islands.

The islands are Japan’s uninhabited Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea that Tokyo claims as its territory.

The videos released by the Pentagon show Chinese aircraft conducting close passes to U.S. aircraft over the South China and East China Seas, in one case flying as close as 15 feet.