President Biden is clinging to young voters and making inroads with seniors while former President Donald Trump is attracting middle-aged voters battling inflation and other stressors before retirement, according to early polls that show age is a key indicator of how Americans plan to vote in 2024.
The trend was on full display in an Emerson College Polling survey Monday that found Michigan voters aged 30 and younger favor Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump 51% to 30%.
Voters older than 70 also favor the Democratic incumbent by 13 points.
Yet Mr. Trump holds a clear lead, 48% to 41%, among Michigan voters ages 40 and 69, leaving the race a dead heat in the battleground state that offers 15 electoral votes and opted for Mr. Trump in 2016 before swinging to Mr. Biden in 2020.
“There is a clear age divide among Michigan’s young, middle-aged, and older voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Mr. Biden, 80, heads into 2024 saying he is confident in his ability to beat Mr. Trump again. But he’s battled low approval ratings and concerns about inflation and his advanced age, making the emerging race a dogfight for key voting blocs.
The Biden campaign is courting seniors by making Medicare, the government insurance program for Americans 65 and older, a central plank of the campaign.
The president recently selected 10 high-priced drugs for the first-ever round of price negotiations under the Medicare program. And he marked the start of Medicare open enrollment this weekend by noting his signature 2022 legislation will cap out-of-pocket spending for most enrollees at $3,500 in 2024 and $2,000 for all enrollees in 2025.
The Democratic ticket is courting young people by focusing on climate change, gun violence, and abortion rights — key issues for young voters and the central themes of a college tour that Vice President Kamala Harris is conducting in major swing states.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said support for Mr. Biden is not so much a clean “U-shape” as a “fishhook” with Mr. Biden finding mild support on the left, younger side before a drop in the middle-age categories and then a spike in support on the older side.
“This relative bookend support for President Biden reflects many retired seniors who trust Democrats more on issues they care about like healthcare costs and protecting social security. They tend to be more loyal voters,” he said.
Among young people, there is some support for Mr. Biden but key issues such as climate change, gun violence, mental health and college debt are “being overshadowed by an aging president and a faltering economy,” Mr. Paleologos said. “They are less loyal voters and could be wooed by an independent candidate closer to their age and enthusiasm.”
Generation X is generally defined as those born between 1965 and 1980, meaning they are in their 40s and 50s. Mr. Trump, 77, is showing an ability to win support from older members of this generation.
A Survey USA poll conducted this month found Mr. Biden holding a 2-point lead over Mr. Trump among seniors and leading his GOP rival, 46% to 41%, among voters ages 35 to 49. Voters ages 50-64 supported Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden 45% to 41%.
An Economist/YouGov in late September said persons ages 30-44 — millennials, for the most part — plan to favor the Democratic Party candidate for president, 44% to 29%, but the percentages flipped swiftly when crossing into the 45-64 age. This group said it would prefer the Republican Party candidate by 9 points.
The trend isn’t ironclad, with some polls showing Mr. Trump holding sway over older Americans or grabbing a larger share of voters under age 35.
The Michigan poll reaffirmed Mr. Trump’s strength among middle-aged voters who haven’t reached retirement age, and political observers said the figures match real-world circumstances.
“Those numbers tell me that Trump is the candidate of the midlife crisis,” said Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University. “There are uncertainties in the lives of those between 45 and 60. Marriages of two decades are collapsing, there are uncertainties — especially among midlife people — in tech jobs that they will tossed aside by a bright teenager, maybe one from India. [They were] pro-civil rights in their youth but they are now rethinking it in light of diversity policies that favor minorities at their expense. These Americans are in the youth of old age and they feel vulnerable and look for a champion in Trump.”
Mr. Paleologos found a similar trend.
“In the middle of the age categories, you have voters who are being hammered by inflation as they work extra hard to pay for their family costs each week while trying to raise their children and take care of their aging parents,” he said. “They are mega-stretched and mega-stressed.”
The Michigan poll was bundled with Emerson polls from Minnesota and Colorado in which Mr. Biden generally holds an edge over Mr. Trump, though the margins are much tighter than Democrats would like as Mr. Trump battles a series of civil and criminal cases.
Mr. Biden had planned to visit Pueblo, Colorado, on Monday to tour CS Wind, a large wind tower manufacturer. The company said it is expanding operations and creating hundreds of jobs as a “direct result” of Mr. Biden’s signature tax-and-climate legislation from 2022, according to the White House.
Mr. Biden postponed the trip and will sit in national security meetings in Washington to focus on the Israeli-Hamas war.
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
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