President Biden is in a dead heat with former President Donald Trump in Michigan and holds narrow leads over his GOP rival in Minnesota and Colorado in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, according to a poll on Monday that focuses on key battlegrounds.
The Emerson College Polling Survey shows a race in which Mr. Biden generally holds an edge over Mr. Trump, the clear Republican front-runner. Yet the numbers are much tighter than Democrats would like as the ex-president battles a series of civil and criminal cases.
This is particularly true in Colorado, where Mr. Biden has a 4-percentage-point lead over Mr Trump despite having won by a much larger margin in 2020.
“Biden’s lead over Trump is significantly lower than his nearly 14-point win over Trump in 2020 — potentially driven by independent voters who are moving towards Trump: 40% support Trump and 37% support Biden,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Still, a significant portion of independent voters, 23%, plan on voting for someone else or are undecided with over a year to go until Election Day.”
Mr. Biden had planned to visit Colorado on Monday to tour CS Wind, a large wind tower manufacturer, in Pueblo. The company said it is expanding operations and creating hundreds of jobs as a “direct result” of Mr. Biden’s signature tax and climate legislation from 2022, according to the White House.
However, Mr. Biden postponed the trip and will sit in national security meetings in Washington instead as he contends with the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East.
Mr. Biden, 80, heads into 2024 feeling confident about his ability to beat Mr. Trump, but he has battled low approval ratings and concerns about price inflation and his age.
The Emerson poll shows Mr. Biden consistently rating lower than Democratic governors in battleground states, including 10 points behind Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and 8 points behind Colorado Gov. Jared Polis.
Mr. Biden recently leaned into Michigan issues by supporting United Auto Workers who were striking for better pay from major car makers. The emerging 2024 race is tight, with 44% of Michigan voters supporting Mr. Biden, 43% supporting Mr. Trump, 8% supporting someone else and 5% undecided.
Mr. Kimball said the majority of those who support the UAW union plan to vote for Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump, 62% to 29%, while the majority of those who support the auto companies support Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden, 59% to 25%.
Mr. Biden tends to lead among young Michigan voters and those over 70 while Mr. Trump has a solid lead among voters between ages 40 and 69, 48% to 41%.
In Minnesota, which has opted for Democratic candidates in recent presidential cycles, 40% of voters support Mr. Biden, 38% support Mr. Trump, 14% support someone else and 8% are undecided.
Trump supporters may be driven in part by police relations in the state, where George Floyd died in 2020 after a police officer kneeled on his neck during an arrest. His death sparked a nationwide debate over police tactics and relations between communities and law enforcement.
“A majority of those voting for Donald Trump in 2024, 52%, think relationships between the police and their community have gotten worse in the past few years, while the plurality of those voting for Joe Biden, 44%, think they have stayed the same,” Mr. Kimball noted.
The Emerson polls were conducted Oct. 1-4 among 442 registered voters in Colorado, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points; 477 registered voters in Minnesota, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points; and 468 registered voters in Michigan, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
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