Strengthened by adversity: House GOP says speaker’s election chaos aided incumbents in swing seats

House GOP campaign groups released numbers showing them in a strong position in the upcoming 2024 campaign cycle, and say Republicans’ wrangling over a new speaker hasn’t hurt incumbents.

According to the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP’s super PAC, a survey they conducted in four Biden-won GOP-held districts over the last week shows Republicans lead on the generic ballot in all four districts.

CLF’s Blue State Project seeks to protect GOP incumbents in swing districts, many of whom are running for their sophomore terms, and to pick up new seats.

Republican Reps. Mike Garcia of California, Jen Kiggans of Virginia, Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler of New York are defending their seats in these districts.

In 2020, President Biden captured these districts on average by 6 percentage points.

Republicans are leading on the generic ballot in 2023 in these districts, according to the Oct. 18-25 CLF survey. An average named ballot in these New York and California districts show the incumbent Republican leading with +9%, while an average generic ballot has the GOP incumbent ahead by +6%.

The numbers come just two weeks after the GOP unanimously elected a new speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana. His election followed weeks of party infighting, and Republicans now face a looming government shutdown deadline, as well as opposition from Senate Republican leaders over a House proposal to separate Israel and Ukraine emergency military aid.

CLF President Dan Conston says the Republican incumbents in front-line districts are “cultivating their own individual brands, well ahead of the generic ’Republican in Congress’ brand.”

“They are built to win even if the political environment isn’t as strong as it is today. Democrats have insisted that recent House events will endanger Republicans next November,” he said. “However, when we posed the question to voters, they agreed by wide margins that their member is working to end the chaos in Washington.”

The CLF memo distinguishes swing voters in blue states from swing voters in swing states, saying that with these voters in Democrat-led states, CLF focuses “on the failures of far-left governance in these states” and “reaching swing voters fed up with soaring costs and out-of-control crime.”

The surveys released by the CLF show each named GOP incumbent has a double-digit positive net image versus a generic “Republicans in Congress.” Mr. Garcia has a 16% edge, Mr. LaLota has 19%, while Mr. Lawler has 29% and Ms. Kiggans picked up 15%.

The survey also showed positive net numbers of between 17% and 21% that each “GOP member is working to end chaos in Congress.”

Additionally, Mr. Conston praised former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California for setting down an “excellent foundation “with cash-flush incumbents and a third-straight stellar class of recruits.”

Democrats are trying to throw cold water on the House Republicans’ rosy 2024 election forecasts, and plan to recapture the House after losing the majority in 2022.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign noted that ahead of the 2022 midterm election, analysts, pundits, and Republicans themselves predicted a “red tsunami” that failed to materialize.

The DCCC said House Republicans, instead, only delivered a “disorganized, drama-filled, razor-thin GOP majority” last year, referring to the recent ouster of Mr. McCarthy as speaker, and the three-week fight among Republicans to replace him.

House Republicans have admitted that they are “hopelessly divided,” with some saying that they “don’t deserve the majority,” and that the GOP is “much more made for being in the minority,” the Democrats’ campaign arm said.

The DCCC accused Republicans of pushing an agenda that includes restricting abortion rights and “launching sham investigations rooted in conspiracy theories.”

Abortion will be on the ballot in November 2024, Democrats say. Several key states, including Arizona, Florida and New York are likely to have statewide initiatives to address the issue to bring Democratic voters to the polls.

This includes penalties against doctors who perform abortion procedures and federal restrictions on abortion medication mifepristone. Democrats say the pro-life stance of Mr. Johnson also will play a role.

“Come November 2024, voters will ensure that the MAGA House speaker next January will hand Hakeem Jeffries the gavel and House Democrats a governing majority after nonstop GOP-manufactured chaos, crisis, and confusion,” DCCC spokesperson Courtney Rice said.

Both Republicans and Democrats claim to have the upper hand going into next year’s campaign cycle.

Republicans say they are in the “strongest financial position in its history,” and that GOP front-liners are outraising their Democratic counterparts.

The average targeted Republican has nearly $1.5 million cash on hand, while the 33 battleground GOP incumbents have raised a combined $19.1 million, compared to the $14.7 million from 31 Democratic front-liners, the CLF memo said.

The National Republican Campaign Committee, the House GOP campaign arm, reported that for three straight fundraising quarters this year, targeted House GOP incumbents outraised targeted Democrats — unprecedented in recent cycles, giving Republicans a more than $566,000 cash-on-hand advantage over targeted House Democrats.

The DCCC, however, says that the Republican fundraising operation “has faltered” and that House Democrats have outpaced the NRCC in terms of fundraising every quarter this off-year — with $44 million cash on hand compared to the NRCC’s $36 million.

“Small-dollar, grassroots donors continue to highlight the enthusiasm gap for House Democrats. In the third quarter, for example, the DCCC outpaced the NRCC by 91% in small-dollar donations,” the Democrats said.