OPINION:
On Jan. 29, 2002, four months after the 9/11 attacks, President George W. Bush delivered his first State of the Union address. In that speech, he labeled Iran, Iraq and North Korea an “axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.”
The world has changed greatly, and the “axis of evil” evolved considerably since Mr. Bush delivered that speech. Iraq, now effectively an Iranian satrapy, is no longer a direct threat to world peace. North Korea was then and is now a Chinese dependent that can do little without China’s permission.
But Iran — with the probability it will soon have nuclear weapons and have the missile with which it can deliver them, as well as its control of terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah — is a much greater threat than it was in 2002.
China and Russia are now allying themselves with Iran and apparently pursuing a mutually aggressive path.
We need to think about their alignment with Iran in the context of their own “no limits alliance” that Russia and China declared in February 2022, weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
China is and has been the principal purchaser of Iranian oil, reportedly buying 87% of Iranian oil exports in September.
On Oct. 30, at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Kyrgyzstan, meeting with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, Chinese Premier Li Qiang proclaimed his nation’s “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Iran. Mr. Qiang said, “China is ready to work with Iran to … enrich the connotation of the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership and bring more benefits to the two peoples.”
Days before that, China sent six warships to the Middle East to counterbalance the deterrent force of the two U.S. carrier battle groups near Israel.
Beijing has not condemned the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. On Oct. 23, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in separate calls to Israeli and Palestinian leaders, asked the Israelis to protect the safety of civilians and told the Palestinian leaders of China’s deep sympathy for the Palestinian people. On Oct. 24, Mr. Yi reportedly called for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war and a return to peace talks on a “two-state” solution to the Palestinians’ issues.
China has clearly chosen to side with Iran in the Israel-Hamas war and will prove a valuable ally to the world’s principal state sponsor of terrorism. So will Russia.
Iran has been supplying Russia with “suicide drones” for use in Ukraine and is reportedly building a manufacturing plant for the drones in Russia.
On Oct. 26, delegations from Hamas and Iran visited Moscow to confer with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. It’s not clear whether all three met together or Russia met separately with each.
The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed its meeting with Hamas and also a meeting with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. According to Hamas, “The talks focused on the recent Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and the strategies to halt Israeli crimes, which are backed by the U.S. and many Western nations.” The Russian ministry said the Hamas meeting was focused on the release of Hamas’ hostages. Neither description can be believed.
The Russian meetings were reportedly focused on greater cooperation with Iran’s missile program. President Biden paved the way for that last month by letting the U.N. sanctions on Iran’s missile program lapse.
On that basis, we have to conclude that the new “Axis of Evil” has defined itself: Russia, China and Iran. They are on course to combine Russian and Chinese imperialism with Iran’s religious fanaticism to create an axis of evil far more dangerous than Mr. Bush’s original.
We can’t yet know how much farther this alliance will go, but the danger is terribly clear.
Russian and probably Chinese support for Iran’s missile program will quickly enable Iran to dominate the Middle East and threaten both Europe and the U.S. Those nations’ support for Iran’s nuclear weapons program will probably be included, creating a nuclear-armed Iran almost immediately with the ability to deliver those arms by missile.
In April 2022, Mr. Biden assured the Israelis that Iran would never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. But this past March, then-Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley told the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee that the United States “remains committed, as a matter of policy, that Iran will not have a fielded nuclear weapon.”
That was more than a quibble about our policy on a nuclear-armed Iran. There’s a massive difference between a policy denying Iran any nuclear weapons and a policy saying that they cannot deploy such weapons.
So what is Mr. Biden’s policy about a nuclear-armed Iran? His tiptoeing around Iran in his statements on the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel creates the impression that he is still committed to reviving the 2015 nuclear weapons agreement with Iran.
Mr. Biden has a choice. He could aim U.S. diplomacy and sanctions — and military preparedness — at the new axis of evil or let it drift into a nuclear-armed Iran. The smart money is on the drift.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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