Virginia’s legislative elections on Tuesday will test Republicans’ post-Roe push for abortion limits.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Republicans running for seats in the state’s newly drawn legislative districts have rallied around a 15-week abortion ban to challenge Democrats’ charge that they want to outlaw the procedure altogether.
“This year’s elections in Virginia are particularly important because it is the first opportunity to see whether Republicans have an effective message with the 15-week abortion ban proposal,” said Stephen Farnsworth, director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. “Republicans have been suffering politically ever since the Supreme Court revised Roe v. Wade, and Republicans in Virginia have largely campaigned on the 15-week ban as an alternative to being fully pro-life.
“Will that work? We will know after Tuesday,” he said. “If it does work, expect Republicans across the country next year to sound like Virginia politicians this year.”
Democrats are working overtime to make sure the Republicans’ counterpunch is another miss on abortion.
Heather Williams, interim president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, framed the election’s stakes in stark terms.
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“Virginians will go to the ballot box on Tuesday and wake up Wednesday knowing whether or not their right to an abortion is protected,” Ms. Williams told The Washington Times. “It’s pretty simple.”
Mr. Youngkin, who is not up for reelection but has taken a hands-on approach to help other Republicans win control of the General Assembly, says Democrats are lying about the Republicans’ stance on abortion. He says it is Democrats who are embracing “extreme abortion policies” that are out of step with the views of most Virginians.
Mr. Youngkin has championed a 15-week abortion ban that includes exceptions for cases of rape or incest or for protecting the life of the mother.
Republican candidates in competitive races have followed the governor’s lead.
“I believe this is going to be a decision between no limits and reasonable limits, and it is one I think we will win,” Mr. Youngkin said during a recent appearance on Fox News’ “The Ingraham Angle.”
Democrats’ post-Roe messaging has paid off in nationwide elections. On Tuesday, they hope it will help them defend their slim Senate majority and flip the Republican-led House of Delegates.
The abortion message is at the center of a broader warning that if Republicans capture total control of Richmond, they will target “fundamental rights” and try to restrict access to voting, ban books, prevent “common-sense” gun laws and stop people from marrying the person they love.
“Does Virginia become the next Florida and Republicans have a trifecta, or do we come into a place where Virginia has a stopgap to these really horrific Republican policies?” Ms. Williams said.
Republicans also are focusing on the economy, jobs, schools and parental empowerment.
“We have demonstrated you can reduce taxes, you can back the blue, you can support parents and put them at the head of the table, you can raise expectations in schools, and we have created 230,000 jobs in 22 months that puts us near the top of the nation, and that is what is on the ballot,” Mr. Youngkin said. “The other side, all they have to sell is fear, and we are talking about hope for the future, and hope beats fear every day of the week.”
Mr. Farnsworth said Virginia voters tend to have outsized influence on the national political conversation because of off-year elections. Also, of the states holding elections on Tuesday, Virginia is the most evenly divided between the two major political parties.
“Both parties want the bragging rights of securing wins in Virginia as a leading political indicator going into ’24,” he said. “That is why so much money is being spent in Virginia. Neither party wants to leave anything on the table.”
The election is also billed as a referendum on Mr. Youngkin’s first two years in office and a chance to elevate his national profile.
Mr. Younkin, the former head of a private equity firm, was credited with helping Republicans flip control of the House of Delegates during his rise in the 2021 election. He wants to build on that success by flipping control of the Democratic-led Senate, which thwarted parts of his legislative agenda.
Mr. Youngkin has welcomed the chance to step into the spotlight. He has emphasized early voting.
“These races are incredibly tight, and we need to get everybody out to vote,” he said. “We need to make sure Republicans get off the sidelines.”
Republicans’ most likely path to flipping control of the state Senate hinges on winning the race between Russet Perry, a Democrat, and Juan Pablo Segura, a Republican, in the 31st District, which includes parts of Loudoun and Fauquier counties.
Money has flooded into the race.
Ms. Russet, a former CIA agent, has raised more than $6 million, and Mr. Segura, the founder of a health care company and doughnut business, has pulled in $5 million, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan group that tracks spending.
Republicans are also looking for a win in the newly drawn Senate District 16 in the Richmond suburbs, where Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, a doctor, is running against state Delegate Schuyler VanValkenburg, a teacher.
“Barring some big upset elsewhere, Republicans need to win at least one of these races to win what would amount to a 20-20 Senate edge,” said J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Democrats, meanwhile, have some other targets beyond these seats, but winning both would likely be sufficient for them to get to a 21-19 Senate majority even if they lose some other closely contested races elsewhere.”
They said the fate of the House would be decided in a series of races in the outer suburbs of Northern Virginia, the Richmond area and Virginia Beach.
“Tuesday’s results will show if Virginians — or at least the voters in the marginal districts — are comfortable giving his Republicans total control in an otherwise blue state,” they said. “This is ultimately impressionistic, but this year doesn’t seem to have the ‘feel’ of 2021 in Virginia when Youngkin and Republicans won the statewide offices and flipped the state House.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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