OPINION:
A typical American household must spend $11,434 more each year to maintain the standard of living they enjoyed in January 2021, according to a new report. Stated differently, Republicans win if the 2024 election is a referendum on the economy.
The analysis cited by Republican members of the Senate Joint Economic Committee examines government data such as the consumer price index to determine the impact of inflation state by state. You don’t need to be an economist to understand the challenges working people face these days.
Defenders of President Biden point to higher wages but ignore the reality that wages have not kept pace with inflation. A new survey by Bankrate shows 60% of working Americans say their income has lagged inflation over the past 12 months. That number is up from 55% last year.
The survey also found that more than half of the workers who did get a pay raise or moved to a higher-paying job could still not keep pace with inflation. From 2021 until now, the price of consumer items has gone up by 16.7%, while wage growth has been around 12.8%.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the typical hourly worker made $10.96 in real earnings per hour in October 2022. That wage grew by only 0.8% to $11.05 in October 2023. At the same time, inflation rose 3.2%.
Since January 2021, average hourly pay for workers has increased by 13.6%, but inflation has more than eaten up the wage increases. This is particularly damning for middle- and low-income households, as the report shows food, transportation, housing and energy costs account for almost 80% of every dollar in added spending.
In other words, “Bidenomics” is a tax on working Americans. Even if they get a raise or a job with higher wages, their take-home pay is less because of higher costs, particularly for essential items.
Defenders of Mr. Biden and his policies argue that he is fine, that the economy is improving and that voters will pick him over the likely Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. The polls do not support that theory.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows that Mr. Trump would defeat Mr. Biden in five of six swing states. Mr. Trump leads in polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, but by only 2 points. The polling matches what I hear in my home state.
On “Meet the Press Now” this week, I said that if the 2024 election is a referendum on the economy, President Biden loses. One of my fellow panelists said the economy was fine. That may be the case for people who do television shows in New York and Washington, but not for the rest of the nation.
In Wisconsin, a typical family is paying nearly $900 more per month just to live at the level they were in January 2021, when Mr. Biden took office. These numbers are having a major impact on hardworking people in my state and across the country.
Many who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 because they did not like Mr. Trump’s tone and thought Mr. Biden would be a reasonable leader are questioning that decision. Some might shift their vote to Mr. Trump. Others might skip voting for a president altogether. If so, the outcome could change in a state where the last two elections for president were decided by less than 25,000 votes.
Defenders of the president point to recent wins in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia. In each of those states, liberals had a major financial advantage going into Election Day. In contrast, every Republican governor up for reelection has won since President Biden took office in January 2021. On top of that, new Republican governors have been elected in that time in Virginia and Louisiana.
The key to Republican success is to make 2024 a referendum on the economy. Don’t take the bait from the radical left or biased media. Stay focused on the issues that matter most to the voters. That means beginning and ending with the economy.
When I first ran for governor, we were facing an economic crisis. Everywhere I went, I talked about my plan to get the economy going again. You could ask me what my mothers’ maiden name was, and I would say that it is Fitch, and every Fitch I know cares about my plan to get people working again in Wisconsin.
Republicans running for the White House, state legislature, courthouse, and everything else on the ballot can win if they stay focused, lay out a compelling plan, and make 2024 a referendum on the economy.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin.
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