China defense report links high-altitude spy balloons to hypersonic missile program

China’s high-altitude balloon program is linked to the military’s hypersonic missile program, and a new command for both systems is prepared to conduct “merciless” attacks in a conflict with the United States, according to a Chinese defense research report.

The report by a group of researchers at the National University of Defense Technology states that the military set up a command for hypersonic missiles and high-altitude balloons, such as the suspected surveillance balloon shot down in February off the South Carolina coast by an Air Force jet fighter after traversing much of the continental U.S.

The report, “Near Space Operations Command,” made public during a Beijing conference on command and control in October, said the new operations command will direct hypersonic missiles against heavily protected targets, including communications equipment and hubs in the heartland of an adversary.

The command also operates “a large number” of spy balloons, solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicles and other support equipment, the report said.

“Hypersonic weapons can attack rocket launch sites, [destroying] the enemy’s ability to fire anti-satellite missiles on our civilian satellite networks,” the report said. “These attacks must be precise, overwhelming and merciless. This could change the pace of battles and bring a major impact to how a war would end.”

China’s high-altitude balloons are under the control of the People’s Liberation Army, according to defense officials, and likely operated by the Strategic Support Force, a separate military branch in charge of military spying, cyberattacks, and electronic and psychological warfare. The balloons and autonomous systems operate at low speeds and can stay at high altitudes for weeks or months and provide surveillance and communications relay points.

The China defense report describes hypersonic missiles as effective weapons that can strike targets minutes after launch and can maneuver to avoid anti-missile defenses. The Chinese authors acknowledged, however, that the missiles can pose challenges for political and international relations.

China is a world leader in hypersonic missiles, which can be armed with either nuclear or conventional warheads, according to a recent annual report by the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

Its first operational hypersonic is the DF-17 missile topped with a hypersonic glide vehicle. The DF-41 has a hypersonic last stage that traveled nearly 25,000 miles in space before hitting a surface target in a 2021 test.

China is also developing the Starry Sky-2, a hypersonic missile with warheads capable of penetrating current missile defenses.

Beijing military planners could also use the missiles to target civilian infrastructure, such as launchpads for SpaceX rockets in the United States, the China defense technology report said. The near-space combat force is in the early stages of rapid development, but it contains units that are not fully operational and lack standardized combat operations.

“The understanding of near-space combat command needs to be deepened,” the report said. “It is necessary to adjust the hierarchy of command and control powers, selection of command methods, implementation of executive orders and support for command communication.”

The report, posted on the Chinese research database CNKI.net, was first disclosed by the South China Morning Post.

Contested zone

“Near space” is a zone of conflict that will determine the outcomes of future wars, according to Chinese strategists, but the legality of the concept is not sharply contested.

“Near space has become a new battleground in modern warfare,” the People’s Liberation Army Daily, a state-run newspaper affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army, wrote in a recent editorial.

The concept is far from universally accepted. 

Michael Listner, founder and principal of Space Law and Policy Solutions, said China stepped up promoting its narrative of near space during the spy balloon incident, which sent bilateral relations with Washington plummeting. “Legally, there is no such creature as ‘near space,’” he said, calling the Chinese argument “very dangerous.”

“The stratospheric region above a sovereign nation is still sovereign airspace. But it appears the PRC is initiating a lawfare operation to create a legal ambiguity to justify not only balloon flights but hypersonic weapons as well,” he said.

A report by the U.S. military’s Indo-Pacific Command’s joint operational law team argues that Beijing has been promoting the term “near space” in multiple publications to “foment a gray zone in which to execute unlawful surveillance under a false veneer of legitimacy.”

“Gray zone” is a military term used to describe low-level warfare.

“There is no ‘near space’ in international law — only airspace and outer space, and [high-altitude balloons] fly in airspace,” the U.S. legal analysis said.

Earlier this year, China denied that the balloon that traveled across the United States was engaged in electronic espionage, describing it as a research balloon that had been blown off course. Beijing protested angrily when the craft was shot down by U.S. military jets.

The Biden administration recovered much of the electronic equipment on the powered balloon. So far, no details about the surveillance gear have been released publicly under the administration’s new policy seeking to lower tensions with China.

Peter Garretson, a space expert with the American Foreign Policy Council, said China is seeking to redefine near space, a concept that in the past was used to describe sovereign airspace where flight by propeller and fixed-wing aircraft was difficult. Previously, the domain was still considered sovereign territory and not unrestricted space that any nation could enter.

“It has been a common legal understanding that until you are in outer space, you are in sovereign airspace,” Mr. Garretson said. “This is yet another example of China’s all-domain press to redefine rules and definitions to their advantage.

“It is — like many of China’s salami-slice tactics — a way to condition the world to their relentless and imperial encroachment and to justify acts of aggression such as their balloon incursion of multiple nations’ sovereign airspace.”

The latest Chinese report on the near-space command, however, suggests the spy balloon program, which has been detected operating over 40 nations, is gathering information for use by hypersonic missiles, which travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver while skimming just below outer space.

People’s Liberation Army surveillance balloons traveling in the stratosphere can gather valuable intelligence on wind, temperature and other conditions that would aid hypersonic missile attacks.

A review of the CNKI.net database reveals that China has published hundreds of reports on near space, including its use for weapons. Beijing analysts define the near-space domain as the zone 12 miles to 62 miles above the Earth’s surface, below what is officially and legally considered outer space. The air in that middle zone is considered too thin for aircraft and too dense to support orbiting satellites.

‘Tension in the air’

The Chinese report suggests that some operational and chain-of-command kinks need to be worked out in the organizational chart for the near-space command. There is “often tension in the air” between the commanders and troops working there, according to the report’s authors.

“Senior officials can very likely issue some tactical orders that are not within the scope of their responsibilities, causing lower-level officials or combatants (i.e., weapon equipment operators) to be unsure of what to do, and this can negatively affect their actions,” it said.

The authors recommend that commanders acquire a deeper understanding of world affairs, national policies and strategic guidelines.

During a conflict, senior PLA leaders should be able to delegate some authority to near-space commanders to improve decision-making and action time, the report said.

It said China’s enemies would be familiar with the command and use all means possible to destroy it in a conflict.

“The command headquarters and control stations of the near-space force will be the key targets of enemy reconnaissance and strikes,” the report said. “The competition around the destruction and anti-destruction of these targets will be extremely intense.”

According to the report, the near-space command would take full control of hypersonic weapons from other PLA branches, such as the Rocket Force, to conduct rapid strikes on strategic enemy targets.

“Such coordination can be challenging. It will require the near-space command to quickly come up with a comprehensive action plan with detailed orders,” the report said.