A version of this story appeared in the On Background newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive On Background delivered directly to your inbox each Friday.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent bid for president is exposing the electorate’s deep-rooted desire to have someone not named Joseph R. Biden or Donald Trump on the ballot.
The sentiment has shined through in numerous polls that show Mr. Kennedy siphoning away a solid chunk of votes that otherwise would be divvied up between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.
“Kennedy represents this sense that neither party truly represents me, that government ought to be reinvented, that we need a new and different approach,” said Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute. “Voters who are dissatisfied with Biden and Trump, dissatisfied with the party system, dissatisfied with what they perceive as inaction and general quagmire in Congress, they say, ‘Sure we want someone who is going to do it differently.’”
For that reason, Mr. Levy said the sole thing the Biden and Trump camps may agree on in the 2024 race is “that Kennedy could be a problem.”
Indeed, Mr. Kennedy threatens to siphon votes from both sides of the Biden-Trump equation.
The attempts to write off Mr. Kennedy — who is most well-known for being the scion of a political dynasty and a vaccine skeptic — ran face-first into polls showing his quixotic candidacy has a fan base.
A recent New York Times/Siena battleground poll found roughly a quarter of registered voters tapping him as their preferred pick.
Mr. Kennedy held a slight edge over Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump with voters in the 18-29 age bracket and was running even with them in the 30 to 44 age group.
Mr. Kennedy also pulled close to 30% of Black voters and 40% of independent voters.
The findings were hard to write off as a fluke after Quinnipiac University showed Mr. Kennedy capturing 22% of the vote in a three-way race against Mr. Biden (39%) and Mr. Trump (36%).
Mr. Kennedy captured 36% of the independent vote, outperforming Mr. Trump’s 31% and Mr. Biden’s 30%.
Mr. Kennedy, in both surveys, peeled away more support from Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden.
That was also the case in an NPR/Marist poll released last month that found Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were locked in a tight hypothetical head-to-head matchup, but that Mr. Biden opens a 7-point lead over Mr. Trump in a three-way race featuring Kennedy.
“Kennedy’s presence erodes Trump’s lead among independents and cuts into his support among Republicans,” the poll analysis said.
A Harvard-Harris poll, however, told a more troubling story for the Biden camp.
Mr. Trump’s lead over Mr. Biden climbed a couple of percentage points when Mr. Kennedy was in the race.
“Nobody really is thrilled about either of the people I am running against,” Mr. Kennedy said in an interview with the Dallas-Fort Worth ABC affiliate. “I would say those are the two weakest candidates for president from major parties in recent decades. So I feel very good about my chances.”
The Biden and Trump campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.
Mr. Kennedy said he is confident his support will grow once he starts airing TV ads, which he says will help counter the negative press he has received.
The son of Robert F. Kennedy and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy, Mr. Kennedy’s family has kept its distance and accused him of peddling conspiracy theories and seeking personal fame.
He has perhaps been best known for his strident opposition to vaccines, which predates the COVID-19 pandemic.
That stance, along with his criticism of military adventurism and vow to secure the southern border, has elevated him in the eyes of the populist wing of the Republican Party.
He also champions liberal ideas such as raising the federal minimum wage to $15, providing 3% mortgage rates to help people afford homes, and getting “large corporations out of the single-family home business.”
He wants to curb oil drilling, strengthen the EPA to combat “corporate influence” and end the war on drugs.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.