OPINION:
The political pundits who keep getting every election wrong claim the few elections in 2023 revolved around the issue of abortion.
This time around, they may be correct. Exit polls show the shock and awe campaign Democrats ran against Republicans — even those like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who was proposing a very European limit of 15 weeks for an abortion — had an effect on voters (even though much of it was pure disinformation).
Never mind that. The genius politicos took one look at the elections this month and concluded that 2024 will be all about abortion.
They could not be more wrong. The 2024 elections will be about kitchen table issues — you know, the kind families across America discuss almost nightly as they try to navigate their lives with soaring inflation and real incomes falling.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor this week said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services — dropped to 3.2% for the 12 months that ended in October, down from 3.7% in September.
That sounds like good news, right? Wrong. That’s just the short term. Real inflation is far higher, into the double digits on some items. The annual Thanksgiving holiday is a wonderful time to judge just how the economy is going because we cook pretty much the same meal every 365 days.
The cost of an average Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will cost 30% more this year than in 2020, the American Farm Bureau (AFB) found in its annual Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Survey.
“The American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Survey found that the average cost of a ’classic’ Thanksgiving dinner for ten in 2020 was about $46.90, while that same meal will cost $61.17 on average this year,” The Sconi reported. “This represents a price increase of just over 30%.”
“Similarly, the AFB found that the ’expanded’ Thanksgiving dinner for 10, which includes ham and additional sides, cost $60.11 in 2020 and will cost $84.75 this year—an increase of almost 41%,” the news site reported.
Back to the CPI. Compared to October 2020, when America was under a COVID-induced lockdown, prices are up a scorching 18.2%. But even that tells only part of the story. The U.S. Inflation Calculator, which tracks variations in food staples based on the monthly CPI, finds that the price of a dozen grade-A eggs rose a mind-numbing 47% over the past three years to $2.07 from $1.41.
A pound of coffee — up to $6.18 from $4.52 in October 2020. White bread — up 50 cents to $2. Ground chuck, bacon, sirloin steak and chicken — up more than 22%.
So while the government — and President Biden — are out there month after month saying inflation isn’t too bad at just three-something percent, we all know it’s far worse than that (and don’t get me started on “shrinkflation” — a box of Triscuits now gives you like 22 crackers for $3.49).
It’s not just food. Rents have soared more than 20% during the past three years, according to apartment search engine Rent.com, which found the median monthly asking rent in the U.S. last month was $2,011. In October 2020, right before Biden won the election, it was $1,667.
Monthly mortgage payments were even worse. In 2020, the average monthly mortgage payment on a single-family home was $1,621, according to American Community Survey data. But the National Association of Realtors last month reported that was $2,317 at the end of 2022 — a whopping 42.9% increase.
Gassing up your car has been equally painful. The average price of a gallon of unleaded was $3.35 this week, according to AAA. That’s 36% more than the $2.14 average price-per-gallon back in October 2020 (when, it might be well to note, Donald Trump was still president).
How are Americans handling all of this? By getting a second job, of course (we’re Americans, we do what’s gotta’ be done). The Labor Department reported earlier this month that some 8.4 million people hold multiple jobs – the highest level since July 2019, before the pandemic hit.
Back to the 2024 election. Abortion will be an issue, sure. But it’s the economy, stupid. That’s what will drive overworked Americans to the polls. Yes, single-issue voters will be out there to cast their ballots for the environment and clamping down on gas stoves, but the price of box of Corn Flakes crosses all political ideologies.
We just want the cost of living to go down, and whoever Americans think will deliver that will be moving into the White House on Jan. 20 next year.
• Joseph Curl covered the White House and politics for a decade for The Washington Times. He can be reached at josephcurl@gmail.com and on Twitter @josephcurl.
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