The 2024 Republican nominating race is playing out in a far different way from the 2016 contest when Donald Trump emerged from a bloated field of presidential contenders.
The field this time is winnowing much faster, increasing the likelihood of a two-candidate contest between Mr. Trump and an alternative.
Tom Rath, a New Hampshire-based Republican Party strategist, said the shrinking of the field in many ways reflects Mr. Trump’s political strength.
“Trump, at that point in the race in 2016, was somewhat untested as a political figure,” he said. “There was a tendency to maybe underrate his potential strength, which he proved he had.”
Now, Mr. Trump “is a known commodity and a favorite to the point of being a prohibitive favorite,” Mr. Rath said.
The early winnowing of the field also offers a glimmer of hope to Mr. Trump’s opponents in the Republican Party who fear a repeat of 2020 and believe the party would be better off rallying around a fresh face.
“If Trump is our nominee, this is going to be a referendum on whether Donald Trump should be president or not,” said Henry Barbour, a member of the Republican National Committee from Mississippi. “If anyone new is the Republican as the nominee, this will be a referendum on whether Joe Biden should continue to be president or not.
“So it is clear if we want to win the White House, new leadership in the Republican Party is going to be the best way to win,” he said.
Republican Party donor Eric Levine switched his support to Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations, after Sen. Tim Scott dropped out of the race. He said Mr. Trump “cannot win” a general election because of his legal baggage and ties to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
“The polls that matter right now are Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and in those, we see Nikki Haley rising and Donald Trump either plateauing or dipping somewhat and Ron DeSantis flatlining,” Mr. Levine said on Fox News. “If we get into a one-on-one competition, Nikki Haley will beat Donald Trump.”
Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said Mr. Levine’s projection is wishful thinking.
“There is no alternative to President Trump,” Mr. Cheung said. “He is the one. He has dominating leads in every single poll, and there is nothing any other candidate can do about it.”
Around this point in the race eight years ago, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal pulled the plug on his campaign, following in the footsteps of Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and Scott Walker of Wisconsin.
Still, Republicans had 14 more contenders.
Mr. Trump and eight others — including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and renowned pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson — were set to participate in the fifth prime-time debate in Las Vegas. Four more were poised for the “kid’s table” debate.
Polls showed Mr. Trump locked in a tight battle with Mr. Carson for the top spot in Iowa and with an 11-point lead over Mr. Carson in New Hampshire.
As it stands in the 2024 race, seven Republican presidential contenders remain.
Half of them — Mr. Trump, Mr. DeSantis, Ms. Haley and biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — have qualified for the fourth presidential debate, scheduled for Dec. 6 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Mr. Trump has a 30-point lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. Mr. Trump is so far ahead in the polls that he has skipped the Republican debates and called on the RNC to scrap others.
The shrinking field is also attributed to the RNC’s new qualification rules for debates. The rules were designed to avoid a repeat of 2016 when the sheer number of candidates and the limited incentives to leave the race made for a messy affair.
The qualifications for the debate stage get successively tougher.
Former Vice President Mike Pence became the first major candidate to drop out of the race late last month. He was poised to miss the cut for the second debate.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina did qualify but ended his bid in acknowledgment that his candidacy had fizzled.
To make the stage next month, candidates must garner at least 6% in two approved national polls, or 6% in one poll from two early-voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Participants must also pull in at least 80,000 unique donors, with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory, in 20 or more states.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has focused his campaign on the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire, says he has cleared the donor threshold but has not met the polling requirements.
Mr. Rath said the biggest difference between 2024 and 2016 could be Mr. Trump’s legal baggage and whether a guilty verdict could upend his air of inevitability.
“Something like that, which I don’t remember having been part of other races, is the one thing that keeps this race somewhat still in play,” he said.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.