Taiwanese opposition figures fail to unite against ruling party

SEOUL, South Korea – A potentially game-changing linkup between two Taiwanese opposition parties to challenge the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has foundered — for now.

The alliance could have instantly made the forces favoring improved ties with China the front-runner in the coming vote, significantly impacting Taiwan’s future. During the eight-year rule of the DPP in Taipei, cross-strait relations have sharply deteriorated and Chinese military intimidation has escalated.

Voters on the democratic island, which lies in the shadow of China and is a critical hub in the global high-tech supply chain, go to the polls on Jan. 13 to elect their next president. President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP, now completing her second four-year term, is constitutionally unable to run for a third.

The DPP’s presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, leads polls with around 32% of voter support. He is seen as a hard-liner toward China.

The two opposition parties seeking to win the presidency are considered more accommodating toward Beijing. Mr. Lai’s leading opponents are each polling at around 22%, suggesting a Lai victory unless they join forces.

Opposition hopes soared after the announcement of a plan Wednesday for Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) to agree to a joint campaign united behind a single candidate. The preliminary announcement of the alliance and the prospect of reduced friction between Beijing and Taipei sent the New Taiwan dollar to its highest price in a year in foreign currency markets.

According to Taipei media Taiwan News, the two opposition leaders could not agree Saturday on using polls to select the more promising presidential candidate.

Hopefuls must register their candidacies by Friday, giving Mr. Ko and Mr. Hou just days to find a compromise.

As the opposition unity drive foundered, Mr. Lau’s campaign steamed ahead. The DPP is expected to announce Monday that Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s popular diplomatic envoy to Washington, would join the party ticket as a vice presidential candidate.

U.S. united on Taiwan, Taiwanese divided

With Washington deeply concerned that China will attempt to take over the democratic island, Taiwan is a linchpin of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

On the security front, U.S. forces and their allies have established defenses in the northern Philippines and Japan’s southern islands to prevent China’s navy from blockading or surrounding Taiwan.

On the economic security front, Taiwan is a critical hub in the supply chain for cutting-edge semiconductors. Washington has identified chips as the key component to maintain the high ground over China in the competition for technological superiority.

In Washington, a strong posture against China is among the few political positions that Democrats and Republicans widely share.

Taiwan’s population, however, is divided. Critics of Ms. Tsai and Mr. Lai say they have gone too far in provoking Beijing.

“Lai’s support comes primarily from the more radical wing of the DPP, which favors a more insistent approach to Taiwan’s self-determination and national sovereignty,” according to the Asia Society Policy Institute. The KMT’s Mr. Hou has called Mr. Lai’s stance on China relations “reckless.”

The TPP’s Mr. Ko is seen as more middle of the road but has proposed building a bridge from one of Taiwan’s outlying islands to the nearby Chinese mainland.

China isn’t the only issue in the campaign. Voters are focused on a smorgasbord of domestic issues: stagnant wage growth, a sluggish economy, energy security and affordable housing for the younger generation.

Defending its record in these areas is more difficult for the two-term government. Mr. Koh is especially popular with younger voters, who consider the DPP the establishment and are put off by the even more establishmentarian KMT, whose roots date back to the first government of Chiang Kai-shek.

For the Biden administration and countries across the region also feeling the pressure of a more assertive China, the Taiwanese vote is attracting attention because of relations across the flashpoint Taiwan Strait. Chinese strategy toward Taiwan is hotly debated.

Multiple U.S. security figures, citing the buildup of Chinese naval and air forces, say China is amassing the capabilities and the will to attack the island. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly told his commanders to build up the People’s Liberation Army to be strong enough to carry out a military operation against Taiwan by 2027.

Critics point to aggressive maneuvers by Chinese naval and air assets around Taiwan, which have increased massively since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, infuriated Beijing with a visit to the island in 2022.

Others suggest that Beijing, which has not fought a hot war since 1979, has a regional “salami-slicing” strategy from the Himalayas to the South and East China seas. That strategy focuses on minimalist, gradual gains — more hybrid war than hot war.

At sea, it deploys undergunned vessels such as the coast guard and “maritime militias,” rather than its battle fleet, into tense waters. In the air, it probes and pilots aggressively but does not shoot.

Western arms executives have told The Washington Times of their frustration with Taipei, which they say is unwilling to do what is necessary to defend itself.

They also cite Taiwan’s short military conscription period — just one year — and its refusal to create a regular militia. Militias were critical to the defense of northern Ukraine in 2022.

“Any complacency or nonchalance on the part of the Taiwanese is maybe because they are reassured,” said Alexander Neill, a regional defense expert with the Pacific Forum. “Underpinning this is the Taiwan Relations Act: The U.S. is mandated to provide sufficient capability to defend Taiwan.”

At times, to the consternation of his aides, President Biden has stated repeatedly that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of Chinese military action. Yet Washington has customarily been reluctant to have Taiwan acquire top-line military hardware.

“The DPP were constantly lobbying for new F-16 variants, and they complain about getting U.S. castoffs,” Mr. Neill said. “But as soon as Taiwan starts developing something that looks like a good offensive capability, the U.S. gets unnerved.”

For the Taiwanese, it’s a dilemma.

“Some say we should not become a chess piece in the hands of America, but in reality, we need support as we are not powerful like Israel,” said one Taiwanese, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not have permission to speak to media. “Because of the U.S. trade war with China, we have to choose a side.”

China’s harsh crackdown on Hong Kong in 2019 shocked Taiwanese, but memories are short and youths do not necessarily share the older generation’s distrust of Beijing.

“The Hong Kong situation changed the game. It made us feel more at risk,” said the source. “But this mindset is now evaporating.”