OPINION:
The great Prussian general and military strategist Carl von Clausewitz once described war as “the realm of uncertainty” where “chance makes everything more uncertain and interferes with the course of events.”
Wars invariably bring unintended and unexpected consequences. The U.S. and the Soviet Union emerged from the ashes of the Second World War as global superpowers. Just a few decades later, Leonid Brezhnev’s fateful decision to invade and occupy Afghanistan represented one of the last nails in the Soviet Union’s coffin.
And so it is for KGB operative-turned-President Vladimir Putin, whose barbaric and unprovoked war on Ukraine has created a seismic shift in the balance of power between the world’s democracies and dictatorships. The Kremlin is now deeply aligned with and dependent on a troika of dictatorships — China, Iran and North Korea — that are all hostile to the U.S. and our allies. The Russian war machine is in desperate need of drones from Iran, artillery shells from North Korea and buyers from China for its oil and natural gas reserves.
Mr. Putin’s shaky hold on power, more precarious than ever because of his failed gamble in Ukraine, has handed China, Iran and North Korea new leverage to demand more concessions from the Kremlin in exchange for their support. “Free cheese,” as the Russians are fond of saying, “can only be found in a mousetrap.”
Last month, Russia did Iran’s bidding by extending diplomatic status to Hamas senior leader Mousa Abu Marzouk, who joined a delegation headed by Iran’s deputy foreign minister for a state visit to Moscow.
Russia is reportedly on the verge of sending its sophisticated SA-22 air defense system to Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy terrorist group in Lebanon, and has reportedly provided Iran with advanced military equipment, including helicopters and air defense. Iranian pilots have been training on the Russia Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet, in anticipation of receiving the aircraft. Russia and Iran have also discussed producing drones together at sites inside Russia.
Demonstrating his deepening alliance with the Hermit Kingdom, Mr. Putin held a summit with Kim Jong Un in Russia’s far east in September. Rather than reprise the moderately productive role Russia played in the now-defunct Six-Party Talks, Russia today is actively helping Pyongyang evade sanctions and providing Mr. Kim’s military with dual-use satellite technology that could speed up the development of more long-range nuclear weapons capable of hitting the U.S.
In March, Chinese President Xi Jinping also made a highly productive visit to Russia designed to ensure continued access to cheap Russian oil and gas, support for China’s aggressive military provocations against Taiwan, and diplomatic backup for the preposterous claim that Beijing is a “near Arctic state,” with a legitimate say in what happens at the frozen top of the world. With Mr. Putin in a weakened state, Moscow has also accepted without protest or counteraction China’s steady economic and military encroachment on Russia’s traditional sphere of influence in Central Asia.
Mr. Putin has also undermined global security by pulling Russia out of international nuclear arms control agreements, including the New START pact, the last remaining such agreement between the U.S. and Russia, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Mr. Putin also withdrew from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
The Russian president might not have planned it this way, because he clearly expected Ukraine’s government to topple quickly when his forces showed up in early 2022. Now Mr. Putin has emerged as the midwife for this century’s axis of tyranny, an intertwined and interdependent “Killer Collective,” to borrow a phrase from the bestselling author and former CIA officer Barry Eisler. Together, these four rogue states constitute a wickedly challenging and exponentially growing threat to U.S. national security. They may be long-term strategic rivals, but their partnership will endure for at least as long as Mr. Putin is trapped in his losing war in Ukraine.
And that’s just one more reason why it’s imperative that Ukraine get all the support it needs to defeat Russia. China, Iran and North Korea need to swallow some serious buyer’s remorse over their decision to take up with Russia.
NATO, under U.S. leadership, must ensure Ukraine triumphs and recovers all the territory Russia illegally annexed by force. The U.S. is spending a tiny fraction (roughly 5%) of its defense budget in an effort to cut the Russian army down to size.
Ukraine is on the front lines defending Europe and the rights of free people everywhere. The Biden administration can thank Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his courageous nation for awakening the West and NATO from their post-Cold War slumber.
But let’s also be clear about the horrific consequences to the global economy and our national security if we fail to take advantage of this last best chance to defeat the Kremlin and break apart this century’s axis of tyranny.
• Daniel N. Hoffman is a retired clandestine services officer and former chief of station with the Central Intelligence Agency. His combined 30 years of government service included high-level overseas and domestic positions at the CIA. He has been a Fox News contributor since May 2018. Follow him on X @DanielHoffmanDC.
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