The decision by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III not to seek reelection in 2024 amplifies the intense spotlight already on two other red-state Democrats: Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and Montana’s Jon Tester.
Mr. Manchin’s seat will almost certainly fall to Republicans, resulting in the GOP needing to flip just one more to regain the Senate — or none if they win the White House.
Mr. Manchin’s exit saves both parties millions in campaign spending — money they can now divert to other battleground states. But Democrats would have been forced to spend far more in a state that went for former President Donald Trump by nearly 40 points.
Republicans can now retake the seat virtually for free.
With a near-certain automatic loss in West Virginia, the consolation prize for Senate Democrats is more cash to spend on the other five endangered incumbents in Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan.
“Obviously, if we were in West Virginia, we’d be spending money in West Virginia,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters of Michigan. “Those resources can be redeployed to other races.”
Mr. Manchin’s retirement announcement instantly made Mr. Tester the most vulnerable Senate Democrat. He’s also pitted against his seatmate from Montana, who is the head of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.
“I won the most expensive race on a per-vote basis in the history of Montana,” said Montana Sen. Steve Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “I think we figured out a few things there.”
Mr. Daines won reelection in 2020 by 10 points against Democrat Steve Bullock in a race that was the state’s most expensive yet with a whopping $100 million spent by both parties.
Mr. Tester won reelection in 2018 against Rep. Matt Rosendale, who’s also considering a rematch, by 3.5 points.
Mr. Trump carried Montana in 2020 by more than 16 points, buoying Republicans’ hopes for a Senate victory in a cycle that coincides with a general election.
Tim Sheehy, the GOP front-runner against Mr. Tester, “is now the most important man in the country” for Senate Republicans, an adviser familiar with GOP campaign strategy said.
Mr. Tester and Mr. Brown, who were both first elected in 2007 and are seeking a fourth six-year term, downplayed the impact of Mr. Manchin’s retirement.
“I don’t think [the focus] could increase any more than it already was,” Mr. Tester said of his race.
“There’s plenty of focus on mine,” Mr. Brown said. “I don’t concern myself with what outside groups are doing.”
Like West Virginia, all statewide elected officials in Montana and Ohio are Republicans, aside from Mr. Tester and Mr. Brown.
Mr. Brown in 2018 won reelection by nearly 7 points, but Ohio has become increasingly red. Mr. Trump won the state by 8 points in 2016 and 2020, and Republican Sen. J.D. Vance beat then-Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in 2022 by almost 7 points.
• Ramsey Touchberry can be reached at rtouchberry@washingtontimes.com.
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