The wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East shattered illusions.
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, now in its 21st month, dispelled the notion that major land wars between European states were a thing of the past. Hamas’ savage attack on Israel on Oct. 7, followed by Israel’s massive retaliation in the tiny Gaza strip, destroyed the idea that Israel’s strategy of deterrence could be sustained indefinitely. Moreover, both conflicts are offering hourly reminders that civilians pay the heaviest price when their governments choose war instead of peace.
In this episode of History As It Happens, military historian Andrew Roberts discusses his new book, co-written with Gen. David Petraeus, “Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine.” Mr. Roberts applies his argument about the importance of strategic leadership to the conflicts in Ukraine, a mostly conventional war involving huge numbers of infantry, and Gaza, where the Israeli Defense Forces are facing a guerrilla force in a densely populated urban environment.
About Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr. Roberts says “the defensive capabilities tend to outweigh the offensive even more heavily than they did in 1939 to 1945. The anti-tank weaponry, for example, is far more advanced than it was in the Second World War. And, of course, Russia needed to have complete air domination and the Russians did not have that.”
Most important, however, is that Russian President Vladimir Putin got the big strategic ideas — the overall strategic situation — completely wrong, Mr. Roberts said. He invaded Ukraine without any moral justification while believing the Russian army would be greeted as a liberating force. Successful leadership means communicating, implementing, and refining “the big ideas” once the war begins. In Mr. Roberts’ view, Mr. Putin has failed in those areas, too
Mr. Roberts also contends that Israel may not have enough time diplomatically or politically to eliminate Hamas, a task that could take many months in the face of growing international pressure for a ceasefire to spare civilian lives. More than 10,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. And there is the considerable problem of what to do if and when Hamas is defeated.
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