Southern Baptists erase decades of membership growth, fall to 1978 level

The Southern Baptist Convention said Tuesday its membership fell by 457,371 last year, the largest single-year numerical shortfall in over a century and erasing decades of growth.

Statistics reveal the 13.2 million-member denomination is still America’s largest Protestant group, although it’s seen declines of 3% in the past three years. The new figure is equal to the 13,196,979 reported in 1978, the denomination said.

Religious demographer Ryan Burge told The Washington Times that much of the decline can be chalked up to “the ‘nones’ and the ‘nons,’” meaning those who now declare themselves religiously unaffiliated and those who belong to non-denominational churches, a category that has seen huge leaps in recent years.

The non-denominational churches, he said, offer many of the same elements of SBC congregations — conservative theology and morals — but minus the denominational baggage, making them appealing to younger church-goers. The growing ranks of the religious unaffiliated, which he said includes 40% of the Generation Z cohort, means there’s also a smaller pool for churches to draw from. 

“I also think that the SBC has been an institution, and institutions in America are not doing well,” said Mr. Burge, an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University. “Trust in institutions is declining every day — not just religion, but banks, big business, unions, politicians, you name it.”

SBC membership peaked at 16.3 million in 2006, according to numbers recorded by the independent Association of Religion Data Archives. Membership declines began in 2008, data from SBC publishing arm Lifeway Christian Resources indicates.

There were 47,198 Southern Baptists congregations in 2022, down 416 from a year earlier, a 0.87% decrease.

Some good news surfaced in the annual statistical survey: Baptisms were up by over 16% in 2022 to a total of 180,177.

Mr. Burge said that the increase is “the positive thing” in the annual statistical report, a factor that might “turn” the downward membership curve in future years.

“It’s not about the church today,” he said of the 16% hike in baptisms. “It’s about what the church will be in five or 10 or 15 years when those [baptized] who are young people stay part of the church. If they’re baptized, the likelihood is higher than if they weren’t,” he said.

There was a 5.46% increase in in-person worship attendance and a 4% growth in small-group attendance. Donations to Southern Baptist congregations increased by 2% to $9.9 billion, the Annual Church Profile, a product of LCR and state Baptist conventions, revealed.

“In a season where pennies are having to be pinched and spending is strategic, church members are demonstrating an increased dependence upon their faith in God,” said Willie D. McLaurin, interim leader of the SBC Executive Committee.

According to Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research, which announced the numbers, the statistics don’t indicate a sudden exodus as much as updated reporting from local churches.

“Much of the downward movement we are seeing in membership reflects people who stopped participating in an individual congregation years ago, and the recordkeeping is finally catching up,” Mr. McConnell said in a statement.

“Membership totals for a congregation immediately reflect additions as well as subtractions due to death or someone removing themselves from membership,” he said. “But many congregations are slow to remove others who no longer are participating.”

Mr. Burge, the demographer, said it’s too early to tell whether the 2022 revelation of decades of sexual abuse in some SBC congregations will accelerate the membership exodus, although he said “it didn’t help matters.”

Christa Brown, a one-time Southern Baptist who said her pastor raped her when she was 16 years old, believes it is a factor.

“The SBC’s decline began just after 2006, which was the year I did my first sidewalk press conference outside SBC headquarters in Nashville,” Ms. Brown told The Washington Times via email.

She said media exposure and wrangling within the denomination over creating a database of verified sexual predators worsened the situation.

“The SBC is still not actually implementing meaningful reform and still not reckoning with its egregious wrongs,” she said. “And a faith group that so devalues the safety of children is a faith group that doesn’t deserve to have children in the pews.”

The geographic distribution of Southern Baptist members varies widely, the 2022 report indicates. The Maryland-Delaware Baptist Convention reports 72,259 members, while Virginia’s two Baptist conventions show a combined total of 517,401 members.

The relationship between the District of Columbia Baptist Convention and the national SBC ended in 2018. As a result, churches that wished to remain with the SBC affiliated with neighboring state conventions or directly with the national organization, making District-specific numbers unavailable.

While the national organization reports a membership decline, weekly attendance is up, with an average of 3.8 million attending each weekend last year, 5% more than the 3.6 million reported for 2021.

Southern Baptist congregations in six states averaged more than 200,000 in-person worshippers each weekend of 2022: Texas (438,865), Georgia (378,520), Florida (362,808), North Carolina (310,722), Tennessee (262,249) and Alabama (207,232). In four conventions — Iowa, Pennsylvania-South Jersey, New England and Dakota — weekly attendance was greater than members on the rolls in each area.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the age at which Christa Brown said she was raped by a Southern Baptist pastor.