A fresh face and a familiar name raise election jitters in Thailand

BANGKOK — Thai voters have seen this movie before and hope the latest sequel doesn’t end the same way as the previous installments.

A dynastic daughter of the billionaire Shinawatra family leads opinion polls to become prime minister of this longtime U.S. ally in nationwide elections Sunday. Many Thais fear the result could reignite her family’s long-standing feud with the coup-empowered, politicized, U.S.-trained military that has long meddled in the country’s electoral system.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party’s surging popularity spurred warnings by Thai media, politicians, academics and others that the military might ignore the majority will or launch yet another coup against a member of the extended Shinawatra clan. Ms. Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the popular but divisive former prime minister who was ousted in a military coup in 2006. She is also the niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, another prime minister whose government met a similar fate eight years later.

Ms. Paetongtarn, 36 and politically inexperienced, promises to give every Thai adult $10,000 and make recreational cannabis illegal again. She entered the campaign’s home stretch just after giving birth to a baby boy on May 1. She insisted motherhood would not hinder her ability to lead an effective government.

“I believe good things come along with children,” she told reporters in Bangkok two days after the delivery while sitting beside her husband, Pidok Sooksawas, at a hospital news conference. “I believe that children are my secret power to work and to lead everyday life.”

The stakes are high for Thailand and for the region. China is making a serious play for influence in a challenge to Bangkok’s traditionally close ties to the U.S. Meanwhile, international and local investors, businesses and others hope a stable, elected civilian government will repair Thailand’s crippled democracy and replace unqualified military appointees in government ministries.

If the polls are right, the result could spell the end of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s dominance of the national political scene. The former army chief effectively seized power nearly a decade ago and then rewrote the constitution and the electoral system to ensure his grip on power. Mr. Prayuth and his recently created United Thai Nation Party are trailing badly in opinion polls. He is likely not the military establishment’s preferred candidate.

The central campaign theme has been a potential revival of the long, treacherous political blood feud between the Shinawatra clan and the military. The family’s dynastic grip over a large swath of mostly working-class and poor voters worries many Thais, not just the military.

Thaksin Shinawatra on Tuesday again made explicit what many of his opponents fear. In a Twitter post, he said he hopes to return to Thailand after 17 years in exile if his daughter wins the election. He said he is prepared to face the legal charges against him for a chance to see his grandchildren.

“Please excuse me. It’s been nearly 17 years that I have to be away from my family. I’m already old,” he tweeted.

Mr. Prayuth ruled at the head of a junta of generals for several years. He banned political activity, arrested civilian opponents and took other harsh measures before moderating somewhat after the 2019 general election.

“There should be no coup again,” he recently told reporters. “If any serious conflict occurs again, I don’t know how to solve it because I have nothing to do with it now.”

Analyst Andrew Nachemson, writing in ForeignPolicy.com, summed up the dilemma for Thai voters by saying, “A too-resounding victory for Pheu Thai will threaten Thailand’s conservative establishment, made up of both military leaders and monarchists, and raise the risk of another coup.”

Constitutional challenges

The new constitution that Mr. Prayuth pushed through the National Assembly in 2017 presents another complication for Ms. Paetongtarn’s path to power. Voters choose candidates to fill the parliament’s 500-member House of Representatives, but the government controls appointments to the 250-seat Senate. The 750 legislators then vote together on a new government, giving the military and its allies a strong base of support before the first ballot is even cast.

The Constitutional Court may also dissolve any party found guilty of committing an election infraction, engaging in conflict of interest or other illegalities before, during or after the election — even if a new civilian government takes office.

“I would expect that the Constitutional Court might find an excuse to force Thaksin’s daughter out of office before any military coup might occur,” said Paul Chambers, a social science lecturer and specialist on Thai politics at Naresuan University’s Southeast Asia center. Protest over a “judicial coup” could give the military an excuse to intervene once again, Mr. Chambers said in an interview.

Fears of a coup will increase exponentially if a victorious Ms. Paetongtarn allows her convicted father and his sister to return from abroad. Both left the country after losing power, faced with legal action and possible jail time over alleged fraud and corruption while in office. Both contend that the charges and convictions were politically motivated.

Allowing the Shinawatra siblings to return could reignite unrest, analysts warn, especially in the case of the populist Thaksin Shinawatra. Clashes between supporters and opponents of the 73-year-old populist billionaire, a former police official and telecommunications tycoon first elected as prime minister in 2001, have killed hundreds in Bangkok’s streets.

Many perceive Ms. Paetongtarn as a placeholder for her father. After fleeing Thailand, Mr. Thaksin still inspires supporters with online messages of defiance.

Critics accuse the Shinawatras, especially Mr. Thaksin, of attempting to loot and destroy the country whenever they govern. Supporters point to Mr. Thaksin’s program to help the poor, including public health care, expanded credit, scholarships and other populist policies funded by taxes.

Thailand’s multiparty system adds another level of complexity to the political equation. No party is likely to claim an outright governing majority, and multiple post-election coalitions are possible.

Those who favor an even more thorough challenge to the military’s political power have been flocking to the smaller, more liberal Move Forward Party and its outspoken leader, Pita Limjaroenrat. The MFP, a successor to a party that was dissolved by the government in 2020, has a strong following among younger voters with a platform of “decentralizing the country, de-monopolizing the country and demilitarizing the country.”

Mr. Pita’s swelling popularity is based partly on his stance that “ruled out any partnership with the military, thus enabling his party to get the nod from many undecided voters,” Bangkok Post columnist and assistant news editor Chairith Yonpiam wrote this month. His party is vying with the Bhumjaithai (Thai Pride) Party of Anutin Charnvirakul, a former health minister best known in Thailand and the West for pushing the legalization and commercialization of the country’s recreational marijuana industry.

Mr. Anutin offered to join any coalition, military or civilian, that will keep marijuana legal for adults. Ms. Paetongtarn says cannabis should again be made illegal except for medical purposes and dispensed only through selected clinics.

Ms. Paetongtarn’s vow to reverse Mr. Anutin’s cannabis liberalization, which enabled recreational use, evokes memories of her father’s violent anti-drug campaign in 2003. Mr. Thaksin’s harsh policies have been linked to allegations of extrajudicial killings of more than 2,500 suspected illegal dealers and suspected drug abusers.

Critics say Ms. Paetongtarn’s stance against recreational marijuana would devastate Thailand’s rapidly expanding public cannabis retail market.

Prayuth’s struggles

Mr. Prayuth’s lackluster showing is one of the election’s more striking developments. Many former supporters say they are weary of his mercurial leadership and public tantrums against Thai media. He once joked, “We’ll probably just execute” journalists, and he once threw a banana peel at Thai reporters.

He is also hobbled by a political expiration date. The Constitutional Court recently ruled that Mr. Prayuth, who has held power since 2014, is term-limited to just two more years in office.

Former army chief Prawit Wongsuwan, Mr. Prayuth’s deputy prime minister from 2008 to 2011, has stepped in as the military’s most viable candidate on Sunday. Breaking away from Mr. Prayuth’s party, Mr. Prawit set up the small Palang Pracharath Party. After the election, Mr. Prawit and Mr. Prayuth may combine their House support with other small pro-military parties, plus the Senate’s 250 appointees.

A military-dominated “minority government” is possible, although many say such a result could ignite public protests.

Still, the new electoral system effectively requires Ms. Paetongtarn’s party to win or assemble an “extreme majority” of 376 seats in the 500-seat House to offset the military’s bloc in the Senate, Mr. Chambers said. In the 2019 vote, the newly formed Pheu Thai Party captured 136 votes, but Mr. Prayuth relied on a compliant Senate to easily win the vote for prime minister.

Younger voters could play outsized roles in the outcome. Many are ready to move past the military government but are unhappy with Ms. Paetongtarn’s anti-cannabis stance.

“I will vote Pheu Thai, not because I like Thaksin, but just to change this government,” said one exasperated transportation worker. “During the past eight years, prices of food and gasoline and everything has increased too much.

Ms. Paetongtarn has been coy about plans for her father if elected. She told one recent rally, “I am my dad’s daughter always and forever, but I make my own decisions.”

• This article is based in part on wire service reports.