House Republicans’ border security bill would stop at least 600,000 illegal immigrants from settling in the U.S., according to a new analysis Tuesday that said the bill will make a dent, albeit a limited one, in the flow of people rushing the border under President Biden.
Most of the decrease would come from stopping illegal immigrant children, the Congressional Budget Office said in its analysis of the bill.
The legislation would also prevent 4 million people from being caught and released over the next decade under Homeland Security’s “parole” power. CBO said some of those people would likely not come at all, but it hesitated to guess at the overall numbers, citing a lack of data to make a guess.
CBO, the official scorekeeper for Congress, also said the bill will cut billions of dollars off the government’s costs for medical care, food stamps and education because fewer people will be claiming those services.
But it will also sap billions from the tax rolls as migrants aren’t in the legal workforce paying payroll taxes, CBO said.
The bill is due for a vote in the House on Thursday.
Its goal is to roll back Biden administration policies that unleashed an unprecedented flood of illegal immigrants encountered jumping the border.
The legislation would restart border wall construction, add more Border Patrol agents, reel in the administration’s expansive and legally iffy use of “parole” to welcome unauthorized migrants, tighten the rules on claiming asylum and push to end the practice of catch-and-release.
It would also mandate businesses use E-Verify, a system that checks to make sure new hires are authorized to work in the U.S.
The bill would make it easier for the U.S. to deny entry to illegal immigrant juveniles who show up at the border without a parent — known in government-speak as Unaccompanied Alien Children.
The legislation also tightens asylum rules by specifying that general conditions of crime or gang violence in a home country can’t be valid claims for refuge, on par with religious or political persecution. And the GOP bill would erect a hurdle to migrants who flee their homes and travel through another country to reach the U.S.
CBO projected that the bill would cut asylum approvals over the next 10 years from 500,000 down to 300,000.
It would also reduce the number of UACs released into the U.S. by 550,000 over the upcoming decade.
On parole, CBO said under current policies it expects 4.5 million more people to be admitted over the next decade. The GOP bill would cut that down to about a half-million parolees.
Parole is a tentative permission to be in the U.S. for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant benefit to the U.S. Analysts say it was meant for cases where someone needed emergency medical care or the government needs that person to serve as a witness or help in an investigation.
Under Mr. Biden, it has become a way to admit a massive number of otherwise unauthorized migrants. CBO said some 1.5 million have been paroled into the U.S. over the last 18 months.
Migrants are supposed to leave the U.S. when their parole is up — generally after two years. But analysts doubt many of the new arrivals under Mr. Biden will go.
The GOP bill would ratchet back the reasons parole can be granted, leading to a decrease of 4 million people getting parole.
CBO said it’s tough to guess how many wouldn’t come at all, and how many would still come and attempt to enter illegally.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.
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