Risk of war with China over Taiwan is real, intel leaders warn

Threats from China and the potential of a war over Taiwan pose real dangers for the U.S., two top intelligence officials said during an annual briefing to Congress on Thursday.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee she worried a miscalculation or escalation of a minor confrontation could trigger a war — based on Chinese leaders’ pessimism about the future of relations with the U.S. and Beijing’s policy of cutting off communications in a crisis.

Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers that at least four dates beginning in 2025 have been put forth for when Chinese President Xi Jinping may order military action against Taiwan. Beijing considers the island part of its sovereign territory and has vowed to reclaim it.

The threats from China, including space warfare attacks on satellites and cyberattacks on critical U.S. infrastructure in a future conflict, dominated the annual survey of global threats that intelligence officials give to Congress. The Senate panel was also holding a closed-door briefing with the witnesses later Thursday.

Other threats laid out by the DNI and DIA leader included the growing risk of a direct conflict with Russia over the Ukraine war; North Korea’s growing nuclear arms and missile programs; and Iran’s increasing potential to build nuclear arms.

On China, Ms. Haines said American intelligence analysts assess that Mr. Xi and the ruling Chinese Communist Party will continue efforts over the next year to make China the preeminent player in East Asia and a major global power.

“What is perhaps most concerning is that the CCP is increasingly convinced that it can only fulfill Xi’s vision at the expense of U.S. power and influence, and through tools of coercion using demonstrations of strength, as well as economic and political coercion to compel governments to acquiesce to its preferences, including its land, sea, and air claims in the region and its assertions of sovereignty over Taiwan,” Ms. Haines said.

Tensions between the nations remain high following Mr. Xi’s direct accusations in March that the U.S. is seeking to suppress Chinese development.

Ms. Haines said the remarks were the most public and direct criticism the Chinese leader made against the U.S. and reflect Beijing’s growing pessimism about the prospect of genuine cooperation with Washington.

Ms. Haines acknowledged she was “absolutely worried” about an “unnecessary war” being caused by miscommunications or an escalation of a minor incident into a major confrontation.

“We need to be as vigilant as we possibly can in order to help our policymakers, our decision-makers, all of you have a better understanding of what’s actually happening so that there isn’t that kind of unintended escalation or miscalculation,” she said.

One problem is that China’s leaders tend to “clamp down” on communications with the United States in a crisis, as took place in February following the U.S. downing of a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that flew over the continental U.S., she said.

Lt. Gen. Berrier said Mr. Xi has increased his aggressive rhetoric regarding efforts to take over Taiwan.

U.S. military commanders have said a buildup of forces and provocative exercises around Taiwan shows Beijing is preparing for military action against the democratic-ruled island.

Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the Indo-Pacific command, testified to Congress last week that Mr. Xi ordered his military to be ready for an attack by 2027, while Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, commander of the Air Mobility, stated in a memorandum disclosed in January that “my gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”

Lt. Gen. Berrier said there are varying predictions for potential military action, from 2025 to as late as 2049.

“I think the bottom line is [Mr. Xi] has told his military to be ready — for what, we are not sure; when, we are not sure,” he said, noting that DIA is closely watching for signs of Chinese military preparations.

Ms. Haines said U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Mr. Xi would prefer to take control of Taiwan without military action.

“But the reality is he has directed his military to provide him with the military option to essentially take it without concern of our intervention,” she said.

President Biden has said several times that the United States would intervene militarily if China attacks. The State Department has said that position is not a new U.S. policy.

Both intelligence officials said a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan would have a harsh impact on the U.S. and global economy, including the disruption of the supply of advanced microchips, 90% of which are produced in Taiwan.

The costs of a Taiwan war could range between $600 billion and $1 trillion, Ms. Haines said.

’Myriad’ problems

The 40-page annual threat assessment report made public during the hearing said China’s rulers increasingly regard U.S. diplomatic, economic, military, and technological policies toward Beijing “as part of a broader U.S. effort to prevent China’s rise and undermine CCP rule,” the report said.

“Beijing is increasingly combining growing military power with its economic, technological, and diplomatic influence to strengthen CCP rule, secure what it views as its sovereign territory and regional preeminence, and pursue global influence,” the report said.

China also is facing “myriad” and growing domestic and international problems such as an aging population, high levels of corporate debt, economic inequality, and growing resistance to China’s heavy-handed tactics in Taiwan and other countries, the report said.

Ms. Haines testified that in the South China Sea and other regional areas the People’s Liberation Army is combining three types of forces as it seeks control over international waterways, including a maritime militia, coast guard and PLA naval forces.

The report also highlights China’s use of influence operations to promote its authoritarian system in replacing U.S. and Western democratic systems. The programs include a global development initiative, global security initiative and the “Belt and Road Initiative,” a developing world infrastructure financing program.

Militarily, the report identifies efforts by China to speed up advanced weaponry and capabilities needed for battling the United States in a future conflict, including large numbers of advanced missiles.

“The PLA Rocket Force’s short-, medium-, and intermediate-range conventional systems probably already can hold U.S. forces and bases in the region at risk,” the report said.

The PLA also is expanding overseas military bases beyond its single facility in Djibouti with new bases in Cambodia, Equatorial Guinea and United Arab Emirates.

On the nuclear arms front, the Chinese military is reorienting its nuclear forces for “strategic rivalry with the United States,” the report said. The buildup includes hundreds of new ground-based missiles in western China and imports of large amounts of nuclear material from Russia for warheads.

The nuclear expansion is driven by Chinese fears of a U.S. nuclear first strike based on American strategic weapons modernization and concerns about advanced PLA conventional weapons developments, the report said.

“Beijing is not interested in agreements that restrict its plans and will not agree to negotiations that lock in U.S. or Russian advantages,” the report said. Beijing’s heightened confidence in its nuclear deterrent is likely to bolster its resolve and intensify conventional conflicts.”

For space warfare, the PLA is deploying new land-based and space-based anti-satellite weaponry, including electronic warfare systems, directed energy arms and ASAT missiles. Beijing also is seeking to control key global supply chains that could be used to threaten and cut off foreign nations in a crisis.

China’s control of access to strategic minerals poses a “major vulnerability” to the United States, the analysis said. China will control 65% of the worth lithium-ion battery market in two years and is dominant in all parts of the supply chain for batteries. China also controls 40% of the world’s active pharmaceutical ingredients — key ingredients in medicinal drugs.

The report also warned that Beijing’s cyber capabilities are a significant danger.

“If Beijing feared that a major conflict with the United States were imminent, it almost certainly would consider undertaking aggressive cyber operations against U.S. homeland critical infrastructure and military assets worldwide,” the report said. The attacks would seek to disrupt critical U.S. infrastructure services such as oil and gas pipelines, and rail systems.

Ms. Haines and Lt. Gen. Berrier voiced concerns about the budding alliance between China and Russia. The ties were growing before the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and have accelerated as the war has dragged on.

Ms. Haines said Russia has become increasingly dependent on China, while Beijing regards Russia as a “little brother” over which it can exercise greater leverage.

Lt. Gen. Berrier said joint Chinese-Russian military exercises have increased mainly in conducting bomber flights and naval operations.

Sen. Eric Schmitt, Missouri Republican, asked Ms. Haines about reports that several thousand Chinese nationals recently crossed the southern U.S. border into the United States, an 800% boost from previous years.

“I don’t have a full answer to that,” she said, noting that some intelligence analysis has been done on the issue and promising a later response.

The analysis indicated that Chinese illegal immigration has increased sharply and then declined slightly. It is unclear what the trajectory will be for the influx in the future, she said.

“It is very concerning if this is an intentional effort by the CCP to send assets across our southern border,” Mr. Schmitt said. “I think the American people deserve to know what’s happening, and I don’t think we do.”

The problem could increase with the pending expiration of a regulation tied to the COVID-19 pandemic that helped U.S. authorities quickly send back migrants, he noted.