The reelection prospects of Sen. Joseph Manchin III are looking shaky in West Virginia.
Eastern Carolina ECU Center for Survey Research released a survey Tuesday showing the incumbent Democrat trailing Republican Gov. Jim Justice by double digits in a hypothetical Senate race.
Mr. Justice had a 54% to 32% lead over Mr. Manchin among registered voters in the state, according to the poll that showed the remaining 13% undecided.
Mr. Manchin’s seat is one of the best pickup opportunities for Republicans in the 2024 election where Democrats will be defending their slim 51-49 majority.
Mr. Manchin, 75, a two-term senator and former West Virginia governor, has been coy about his political plans. He said he could put off an announcement about his future until the end of the year.
His name also has been bandied about as a possible third-party presidential contender, a move Democrats fear could decrease the odds of President Biden winning reelection.
Mr. Justice jumped in the race last month, giving the Senate GOP a prized recruit in a deep red state that former President Donald Trump carried over Mr. Biden by 39 points in 2020.
Rep. Alex Mooney, West Virginia Republican, is also running for the party’s nomination for the Senate.
Mr. Manchin’s reelection hopes look better in a hypothetical showdown with Mr. Mooney. The poll showed Mr. Mooney at 41% and Mr. Manchin at 40%, with 18% undecided.
“Although it is still early, Jim Justice is the clear favorite to win in West Virginia’s 2024 U.S. Senate election,” said Peter Francia, director of the ECU Center for Survey Research. “He is a popular Republican governor challenging an unpopular Democratic incumbent in a heavily Republican state.”
Indeed, Mr. Justice is more well-liked than Mr. Manchin.
In the survey, 57% of respondents said they approve of the way Mr. Justice does his job, and 29% disapprove. It is a different story with Mr. Manchin, as 33% approve of the way he does his job, and 59% disapprove.
Mr. Justice, 72, ran as a Democrat in his successful bid for governor in 2016. After assuming office, he changed his party affiliation back to Republican in a surprise appearance with Mr. Trump in West Virginia.
Democrats are defending 23 seats in the Senate and Republicans are defending 11.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election tracker, rates Mr. Manchin’s race as a “tossup” along with Sen. Sherrod Brown’s seat in Ohio and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat in Arizona.
Ms. Sinema changed her party affiliation from Democrat to independent late last year but still caucuses with Democrats.
The ECU Center for Survey Research poll was conducted May 22-23. It included 957 registered voters in West Virginia and had a margin of error of 3.7%.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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