A win away from the NBA Finals, the eighth-seeded Miami Heat have caught almost everyone by surprise. Perhaps no one more so than the Boston Celtics, who are on the verged of getting swept entering Tuesday’s Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat, after all, were not a team in the regular season that looked anywhere near this good. Miami also was three minutes away, too, from missing the postseason entirely — trailing the Chicago Bulls in the final of the play-in tournament before storming back.
But now Miami’s success has people wondering a different question: If an eighth seed can now make the NBA Finals, is the regular season officially meaningless?
Not exactly.
Sure, critics of the NBA have long lamented the length of the NBA’s 82-game season. Those critics, for what it’s worth, also appear to include many teams — who increasingly rest stars to prevent injury in an era of load management. And some may point to the NBA’s declining television ratings in the regular season — which fell from an average of 1.61 million to 1.59 million viewers per game this past year, according to Sports Media Watch — as further evidence that the season is too long to pay consistent attention toward.
But meaningless? Don’t tell the Heat that. To them, their agonizing, up-and-down campaign that resulted in a 44-38 record was a big reason why they were able to finally find a rhythm come playoff time. They wouldn’t be in this position without it, they say.
“We’ve found the value in the grind of the regular season and a grind in the struggle,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said earlier this month. “I’ve said that repeatedly: We’ve found a beauty in that struggle.
“But without that struggle, where we didn’t have to find different solutions to win, and different guys stepping up so that they had the confidence for these kinds of moments — if we didn’t have a regular season, then you’d have zero chance to be able to do that in the playoffs.”
The Heat, if they beat Boston, would become only the second eighth-seed to make the NBA Finals. The last team to do so was the 1999 New York Knicks — a group that got there in a lockout-shortened season and lost to the San Antonio Spurs.
But that Knicks team didn’t devalue the regular season. And the Heat’s success arguably doesn’t diminish it, either. For one, Miami’s path isn’t easily replicable. Yes, the Heat have a true superstar in Jimmy Butler — and superstars always help come the postseason. Still, superstars don’t automatically prevail. The Phoenix Suns acquired Kevin Durant at the trade deadline to pair him with co-star Devin Booker. They lost anyway, in six games to the Denver Nuggets in the second round.
The Heat are in this position in part because they have been here before. Last year, Miami reached the Eastern Conference finals as a No. 1 seed. In 2020, the team made it to the finals in the NBA bubble. The Heat, even with a sluggish regular season, were able to draw on experience to help them again. Elsewhere, the Heat have found and developed undrafted gems like Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson to build depth. That has been crucial to Miami’s success and wouldn’t be possible without much-needed regular-season reps.
Those who have argued that the NBA’s regular season lacks meaning have also pointed to the playoff success of the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are just the second team to make the conference finals as a seventh seed since 1987. Like the Heat, the Lakers’ regular season campaign was a mess — though Los Angeles found stability once it retooled its roster at the trade deadline.
But there, the Lakers entered Monday’s Game 4 down 3-0 to the Nuggets, the West’s No.1 seed that used the regular season to build continuity. The Nuggets, keeping with tradition, have looked like a one-seed typically does — relying on stars in two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and guard Jamal Murray and crafty, talented role players.
Though there have been upsets in these playoffs — the Heat took down the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and fifth-seeded New York Knicks, while the Lakers beat both the two-seeded Memphis Grizzlies and the defending champion Golden State Warriors — that may speak more to the league’s newfound competitive balance.
Only two teams have won at least 55 games in the last two seasons. In 2012-13 and 2014-15, by comparison, there were six teams with 55-plus wins.
The regular season might not be meaningless. It’s just different now. The Heat can attest to that.
• Matthew Paras can be reached at mparas@washingtontimes.com.
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