OPINION:
The United States needs detente with China in the Pacific — lest the new Cold War morph into a kinetic conflict over Taiwan and control of the maritime commerce through the vital South China Sea.
That requires looking past China’s rhetoric about accomplishing broad technological dominance and dominating the world by midcentury and focusing on its legitimate economic concerns and military capabilities.
China won’t indefinitely accept a subordinate status to the West across leading-edge technologies. Already, it is out in front, for example, in battery technology. But it will always need the West.
Neither China, the United States, the European Union nor Japan enjoys the size of markets to support the economies of scale in research and development and production or monopoly of bright minds to accomplish across-the-board technological dominance. Consider the length, complexity and multinational character of semiconductor supply chains.
At the same time, China’s economy is too dependent on trade and its navy too large and not adequately challenged by the U.S. fleet to be confined within the First Island Chain running from Kuril Islands through Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and anchored at Vietnam.
Apart from its essential status as the manufacturer of more than 90% of the world’s most advanced computer chips, capturing Taiwan would give the Chinese navy a base of operations to push the overstretched U.S. Navy into subordinate status.
China would control the lanes of commerce from South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia, Australia and India to Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast.
A deal that maintains Taiwan’s de facto independent status is essential to American interests. Deterring an invasion will require arming Taiwan with the most sophisticated weapons and not permitting Beijing to become more confident about invading by allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine.
The losses that Russian forces are taking in Ukraine should give Chinese President Xi Jinping both pause and optimism. Even if Russia manages to hold on to a piece of Ukraine in addition to Crimea, the myth that President Vladimir Putin has built a competent, modern army has been shattered.
NATO has been stiffened and expanded.
The long-term prospects for the Russian economy, with so many talented young people leaving and it unable to sell its oil and natural gas to advanced industrialized countries or freely access Western technology, are poor.
Western sanctions and Ukrainian valor have forced Russia into vassal status to China unless Mr. Putin can pull a rabbit out of his hat to accomplish victory.
Mr. Putin may be able to outlast the Europeans. In America, the prospects for continued support in Congress — or with an isolationist attractive to the Trump wing of the GOP potentially winning the presidency — are terribly uncertain.
President Biden could recognize that losing in Ukraine would embolden Mr. Xi to cross the Strait of Taiwan. The most certain path to a diplomatic solution with Russia that includes for Ukraine secure borders, a rebuilt and sustainable economy and a repatriation of its citizens kidnapped to Russia is to provide Kyiv with the arms to strike supply routes, kill military leaders and destroy infrastructure in Russia. Those are no more likely than a popular revolt or coup in Russia to replace Mr. Putin with someone more reasonable.
Hence, time is on Mr. Putin’s side.
Given Mr. Xi’s obsession with Taiwan, he may conclude the same would apply if he invaded. The losses would be tough, but he may calculate that American isolationists would abandon their Asian allies as they did in Afghanistan.
With Americans tightening the noose on China’s access to U.S. technology and lobbying South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the Netherlands and the rest of Europe to do the same, Mr. Xi must cultivate Europe to accomplish continued access to Western know-how and broad enough foreign markets.
Leaders in France, Germany and Brussels may believe Europe needs the Chinese market to prosper, but Beijing suffers a terrible image problem in Europe and throughout the West.
Pew’s tracking poll indicate significant majorities in Germany, France, Italy and most of Europe view China unfavorably.
Russia is sufficiently drained that it needs China’s support to continue the war, but China needs good relations with Europe — and a better image there to secure those. Mr. Xi should see advantage in pressuring Mr. Putin to deal.
At the conclusion of recent meetings with Mr. Xi, French President Emmanuel Macron said, “I know I can count on you to bring Russia back to reason and everybody to the negotiating table.”
His critics notwithstanding, he may be spot on.
With the war in Ukraine resolved, the United States could pivot more resources to the Pacific and be in a stronger position to negotiate to deescalate tensions with China.
The shape of a deal would be terribly difficult — neither side is about to give up Taiwan — but both sides could accept naval parity and agree to curb their arms race.
• Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.