OPINION:
China and Russia are rapidly replacing the U.S. as preferential partners across the global south.
Although many of our historic allies feign friendship, they are working to undermine our interests in the region by cozying up to our adversaries. The United Arab Emirates, once viewed as a dependable U.S. ally, has not only distanced itself from the U.S. but is also adopting policies that reflect an emerging hostility to U.S. interests in the region.
The UAE worked with us at the height of the “war on terror” because it was threatened by the same radicals we were targeting. With the emergence of Russia and China as existential threats to our national security and interests in the UAE’s neighborhood, it is far from clear that the UAE is willing to stand with us against these two adversaries. In fact, its recent actions facilitating a massive increase in Russian and Chinese influence in the region force one to wonder whether the U.S. should continue to treat the UAE as a friend and ally.
China and Russia may represent existential threats to global security, but our friend the UAE is embracing them. While neither could replace the U.S. as an external security guarantor in the Persian Gulf, the developing cooperation with Moscow and Beijing is redrawing channels of security cooperation to the detriment of U.S. involvement in the region. While all nations are free to pursue their own interests and seek new partners and allies as their interests change, the UAE is acting as if there will be no consequences as it abandons its old ally in Washington.
Under President Mohamed bin Zayed, the UAE has, even while attempting to maintain its older quasi-Western orientation, accelerated the move away from the U.S. and warned that a new cold war between China and the U.S. would force it to choose a side. This essential announcement that it has yet to choose between Washington and Beijing was reported in response to the U.S. demand that Abu Dhabi cease construction of a Chinese military base in the Persian Gulf.
U.S. objections to the UAE’s willingness to assist Beijing establish a beachhead in the region led to what now appears to have been but a pause rather than a cancellation of the project, as it has been recently reported that construction of the Chinese military base has resumed. This has gone even further, with the UAE unilaterally declaring its withdrawal from the U.S.-led Combined Maritime Force that directs maritime security across the Persian Gulf. If this is not an indication of the distance in our relations with the UAE and their detachment from U.S.-led security interests, then the U.S. remains blind to the UAE’s break in the alliance.
This not only elevates immediate threats to U.S. national security interests in the Persian Gulf but also reflects the UAE’s increasing willingness to ignore U.S. interests by jumping in bed with Moscow and Beijing. The initial decision by UAE leaders to allow construction of the base might have been viewed as a mistake, but resuming construction in the face of U.S. objections is anything but.
The UAE’s growing hostility should come as no surprise. Abu Dhabi has violated the U.N. arms embargo on Libya, supported the genocidal Assad regime’s readmittance to the Arab League, and has been judged by the U.S. military inspector general to have funded Moscow’s Wagner operations across Africa.
The UAE is also actively providing commercial access for Russian firms by helping Moscow circumvent sanctions, and if recent leaks are to be believed, formed an alliance with Russian state security to target U.K. and U.S. intelligence agencies. The UAE’s growing partnership with Russia represents an immediate threat to U.S. interests in the region, European security, and the international rule of law.
Recent National Intelligence Council reports underscore the critical need to reassess the U.S. relationship with the UAE. The good faith generated in Washington by the UAE in the past has given way to an emerging hostility that demands a reassessment of whether Abu Dhabi can be treated as a friendly partner any longer.
Washington cannot stand idly by as the UAE sidles up to China and Russia.
A silent U.S. will be seen as an enabler as the region slips into hostile hands. This has already begun as other African nations are succumbing to Moscow and Beijing. South Africa recently held joint military drills with China and Russia, and Egypt is delivering arms and ammunition to Moscow.
The UAE’s recent willingness to thumb its nose at Washington without apparent cost means others are likely to follow suit. We can arrest this erosion of influence in the region only by letting our supposed friends and allies know that friendship is a two-way street.
• Matthew Hedges is an academic focusing on authoritarianism. While conducting fieldwork research for his doctorate in the UAE, he was detained, charge with espionage, tortured and sentenced to life imprisonment. He has testified to Britain’s House of Lords, the Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office, European Parliament, U.S. House of Representatives and the United Nations.
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