OPINION:
Voters in Wisconsin are making news again. A poll released on Wednesday by Marquette University Law School shows a close race in the Republican primary and a competitive race in November 2024.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters in Wisconsin, 31% support former President Donald Trump, 30% support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 6% support former Vice President Mike Pence, 5% support Sen. Tim Scott, and 21% say they are undecided.
This is the first significant poll that shows anyone within striking distance of the former president.
Most post-polls show Mr. Trump winning by large margins if the primary elections were held today. And I would certainly not be surprised if he becomes the nominee in 2024.
Still, it is interesting to see a close race in Wisconsin, a key state in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections. Mr. Trump carried the Badger State in his first campaign, while President Biden barely flipped it in 2020.
My home state will play a major role in determining the winner in 2024.
The Marquette Law School poll of likely voters conducted from Oct. 24 to Nov. 3, 2022, had Sen. Ron Johnson, Wisconsin Republican, at 50% of the vote. In the end, he received 50.4%. His opponent, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, received 49.4% of the vote; the poll had him at 48%.
Poll director Charles Franklin has consistently been one of the most accurate public pollsters in the nation. Remember, polls are just a snapshot in time and can be influenced by current events.
For the recent poll, 913 registered voters were interviewed from June 8 to 13. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The results will certainly change in the coming months.
An initial glance at the poll’s results suggests momentum for the DeSantis campaign. The results of the general election question, however, raise red flags for each of the major Republican contenders.
According to respondents, if the election were held today, 49% of registered voters would cast a ballot for President Biden, with 47% for Mr. DeSantis. In a battle between the current and former president, 52% would vote for Mr. Biden, with 43% for Mr. Trump.
Yet only 45% approve of how Mr. Biden is doing his job, with 53% expressing disapproval. This is part of an ongoing challenge for conservatives across the country.
Many Democratic-leaning voters disapprove of the Democratic candidate’s job performance but still refuse to vote for a Republican. Sen. John Fetterman is a sad example of this phenomenon.
Much of that is driven by younger voters. In 2022, 18- to 29-year-old voters helped counter what early polling suggested would be a massive “red wave” in the midterm elections.
These younger voters went with the radical candidates by 40 points or more in key battleground states such as Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Making inroads with these younger voters will require more than clever digital ads or student coalitions. We have to counter years of liberal indoctrination.
This is why I am honored to serve as the president of Young America’s Foundation. We have a plan to help save America by reaching more students at younger ages and with an even better message defending our conservative values.
Looking ahead, conservatives need to have a strong presence on every college campus. We need to go beyond college and high school to reach middle school students as well as support the parents of elementary school students.
And we have to find ways to connect with young people where they are — on their devices.
I am excited about our plans at the foundation to make nearly 4,000 visits to campuses across America each year. It is rewarding to see the impact on younger students when the truth is revealed to them. And our growth on social media is amazing.
We just announced that our YouTube channel, YAFTV, exceeded 1 billion views. On top of that, we have more than 1.3 million subscribers. We are the top conservative group working with young people in this area.
According to our research, YouTube is the No. 1 way young people receive their information. Our goal is to continue our growth as we bypass the dominance of liberal media on young people.
Which gets us back to Wisconsin. The latest Marquette Law School poll suggests a tight in Republican primary race and an uphill battle in the general election.
It is worth taking note of what happens in my state, as my fellow voters and I will likely determine who takes the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2025.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin from 2011 to 2019.
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