Putin on borrowed time

OPINION:

With the collapse of the Wagner Group mutiny, speculation on Russia’s future is shaping up to be a political satire rather than anything based on the country’s historical patterns.

There is a comparison straight out of Russian history that is worth looking at: the Russo-Japanese War and the 1906 revolution that followed it.

In 1900, the czar had absolute power, but a revolt ended it. Russian President Vladimir Putin entered 2022 with essentially absolute power on par with that of the czar 120 years before.

Both wars had at their core Russian aggression; both had disastrous military results.

The mutiny by Wagner is similar to the mutinies of 1906, when there were stark differences between wealthy elites and huge poor populations. This bodes poorly for Mr. Putin.

What’s the lesson here? Russia is fractured and socially unstable. The war against Ukraine is a disaster for Mr. Putin, who lacks the resources to address military needs and fix societal cracks.

And like the czar, he simply does not understand the unrest. The truth is that he let advisers convince him that Ukraine was rotten to the core and easy pickings.

The failure has destabilized Russia, and the continued bleeding will only make it worse.

Unless oil revenue jumps soon, Mr. Putin is on borrowed time.

JAMES BARENDS

Wayne, Pennsylvania