Ukraine’s highly touted counteroffensive to regain territory seized by Russian invaders showed little progress in its initial days, but that was before the near coup in Moscow and the possible removal from the battlefield of thousands of Wagner Group mercenaries, the backbone of Russian ground operations over the past year.
Ukrainian troops have been slowed by many factors, including scores of land mines planted by Russians along the 600-mile front in the country’s east, but military analysts generally agree that the recent upheaval presents an opportunity for Kyiv — if only to seize on the Russian military’s shaky morale and willingness to fight.
“The best things the Ukrainians have going for themselves is their courageous military and Russia’s self-inflicted wounds, of which there are many at this point,” said Daniel Hoffman, a former senior CIA officer who served as the agency’s Moscow station chief. He writes a regular opinion column for The Washington Times.
Even before the short-lived but intense mutiny by Wagner Group commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian troop “morale already was low,” Mr. Hoffman said in an interview Tuesday.
“This is now going to be a forever kind of hit to the Russian army,” he said. “The fact that Ukrainian forces are in the fight and killing Russians means Russian troop morale is only going to get worse.”
Still, Mr. Hoffman cautioned against jumping to the conclusion that Ukrainian forces are on the verge of making dramatic territorial gains in the country’s east. In addition to being slowed by land mines, he said, Ukrainian forces continue to operate without close air support or substantial long-range artillery as they probe dug-in Russian fortifications.
“You can be defensive without these things, but it’s hard to be on the offensive, and it’s ultimately hard to predict what’s going to happen over the coming days and weeks,” Mr. Hoffman said. “We’ll see if Ukrainian forces get a massive territorial gain.”
Despite concern over the prospect of an escalation in Ukraine, other analysts say the moment is ripe for Ukrainian forces to strike.
“The recent turn of events in Russia could not come at a better time for Ukraine,” said John “Buss” Barranco, the 2021-2022 senior U.S. Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
“Ukraine’s best chance for a successful counteroffensive is to attack deep behind the current Russian front line and force the Russians to fall back from their 600 miles of layered defense-in-depth fighting positions to prevent Ukraine from cutting Russia off from its supply lines,” he said in comments circulated by the think tank.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested Monday that Kyiv is eager to seize on the chaos within the Russian security establishment, although he provided no details.
Ukrainian security officials exuded confidence but remained guarded about making proclamations about the fate of the counteroffensive.
“Of course, whenever an opportunity arises and exposes a vulnerability of the enemy, that opportunity will be used,” Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, told NBC News from Kyiv. “But I don’t think it’s helpful for us to look at the events [in Moscow] as some unique opportunity for anything. For us, it is important to stay focused on our military objectives.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz became the latest Western leader to weigh in on the evolving crisis for Mr. Putin. He told German broadcaster ARD, “I do believe he is weakened as this shows that the autocratic power structures have cracks in them and he is not as firmly in the saddle as he always asserts.”
Like President Biden and other Western leaders, Mr. Scholz was cautious about predicting Mr. Putin’s fate and not wanting to fuel Russian accusations that the West played a hand in the uprising. “Whether [the Ukraine war] has become easier or harder through these events is not really clear,” he said.
Watching and waiting
Neither the Russian army nor Ukrainian military forces showed any indication of major tactical shifts along the front lines, but speculation swirled Tuesday as details emerged about the deal Mr. Putin struck with Mr. Prigozhin to end the mercenary group’s insurrection.
Ukrainian officials note that the bulk of an infusion of trained troops has not entered the battle in the east. In an interview with the Financial Times, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said the modest gains so far, including the recapture of several villages and about 50 square miles of territory, should not be seen as the “main event” of the counteroffensive.
Although major uncertainty remains over the future role of Wagner fighters in Ukraine and other hot spots around the world, Mr. Prigozhin was reported Tuesday to have arrived safely in Belarus with an unknown number of his estimated 25,000 fighters.
In a speech Tuesday, Mr. Putin publicly acknowledged for the first time that the group was exclusively financed by the Kremlin and received $1 billion over a one-year period in 2022 and 2023.
In Ukraine, Russian forces gave a visible and bloody sign that the war was continuing. The death toll from a Russian missile strike Tuesday evening on a crowded pizza parlor in the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk rose to 11. More than 60 others were wounded, Ukrainian officials said. More drone and missile attacks were reported on Ukrainian cities.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a Russian television interviewer Wednesday that the weekend uprising would not affect Moscow’s pursuit of its military goals in Ukraine.
“As we overcame the attempted mutiny, we haven’t made the slightest concessions with respect to the goals of the special military operation and haven’t lost any positions on the battlefield …,” Mr. Lavrov told Channel One, according to a report by the official Tass news agency. “It’s impossible to give up the goals that have been set.”
Mr. Putin tried to project a show of strength and normalcy with a surprise evening stroll Wednesday amid pedestrians in the Russian Dagestan region. Russian television cameras captured the president greeting a smiling, enthusiastic group of onlookers during the walk.
Scrambling in the Kremlin
The Kremlin showed signs of scrambling to take control of the Wagner Group’s fighters and reshape their role in Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that it would take control of the mercenaries’ heavy weaponry. Mr. Putin’s pressure on Wagner Group fighters to register with the regular Russian army is thought to be one of the primary reasons Mr. Prigozhin staged his stunning rebellion.
An analysis by the Institute for the Study of War said Mr. Putin sought in his remarks Tuesday to “persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the Russian military and continue fighting against Ukraine.”
“The Kremlin indicated that Russia aims to retain Wagner forces in order to sustain its operations in Ukraine and other international engagements,” the think tank’s analysis said. “Putin could have arrested the Wagner commanders for treason but instead offered to forgive and integrate Wagner forces — which indicates his need for trained and effective manpower.”
The developments may inspire the U.S. and NATO to increase weapons deliveries to Ukrainian forces while keeping a wary eye on the sudden presence of so many Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus — just north of Ukraine and on the borders of NATO states in Eastern Europe.
The Biden administration announced Tuesday that it would send up to $500 million in fresh military aid to Kyiv, including an infusion of missiles for air defense systems and more than 50 heavily armored vehicles.
The aid is aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s counteroffensive, according to The Associated Press, which noted that the development marks the 41st time since the Russian invasion began in February 2022 that the U.S. has provided military weapons and equipment through presidential drawdown authority. The program allows the Pentagon to quickly take items from its stocks and deliver them to Ukraine.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the Western alliance is closely watching the military fallout from the Russian events of recent days.
While it is “too early to make any final judgment about the consequences” of the abortive coup, Mr. Stoltenberg told reporters in The Hague this week, “what is absolutely clear is that we have sent a clear message to Moscow and to Minsk that NATO is there to protect every ally and every inch of NATO territory.”
• Guy Taylor can be reached at gtaylor@washingtontimes.com.
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