The House version of a major defense authorization bill now working its way through Congress would order Pentagon planners to study the feasibility of imposing a U.S. naval blockade of China to prevent oil shipments from reaching the country in the event of a future conflict.
A section of the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, added by the House Armed Services Committee during a markup session last week, would give Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin six months to produce a report to Congress on how the military can conduct one or more naval blockades on shipments of fossil fuels bound for China during a war.
The legislation, considered one of the few annual must-pass measures on Capitol Hill, faces hurdles in Congress before final passage but nonetheless is a clear sign that lawmakers believe the risk of a military clash with China is increasing. It is also an indication many in Congress think the Pentagon should be doing more to prepare for conflict.
Tensions remain high between the United States and China over Taiwan. Military leaders have warned Congress in recent testimony that President Xi Jinping has ordered the Chinese military to be ready to attempt a takeover of Taiwan in four years.
As part of the study, the Pentagon would be required to report on how China might satisfy its energy and fuel needs after the blockade is imposed. The study, proposed by Rep. Ronny Jackson, Texas Republican, and narrowly approved over Democratic opposition by the full House Armed Services Committee last week, would also outline the type of naval forces to be used in the blockade and how China could circumvent the blockade using alternate air and land routes.
House lawmakers also want the Pentagon to explore the impact of blockading key waterways currently used by China for oil shipments, mainly from the Middle East, including the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait and the Sunda Strait, located between the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra, as well as trade routes through the South China and East China Seas.
China produces only modest amounts of fuel oil domestically and is heavily reliant on foreign imports. Five countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and Oman — supplied more than 60% of China’s crude oil imports last year.
Beijing has stepped up imports of discounted Russian crude oil since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The oil purchases have helped bolster the Russian economy hit hard by Western sanctions over the invasion.
Chinese crude oil imports average around 10.8 million per day and oil shipments to China are expected to increase 6.2% this year to 540 million tons, according to the state-run China National Petroleum Corp, Reuters reported.
China could use existing stockpiles of fossil fuels to meet its needs, as well as rationing fuel and using existing or planned cross-border oil and gas pipelines.
The report sought by House lawmakers would be produced in an unclassified form and could include a confidential annex if necessary under the House version of the NDAA bill.
Defense sources say war with China is expected to include Chinese cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure designed to shut down U.S. electrical grids.
In response, the United States military plans to strike known Chinese energy plants with missiles and electronic attacks, with the goal of producing a similar shutdown of electric grids. A subsequent naval blockade could then be imposed to further limit Chinese energy production.
Sean Mirski, a foreign policy analyst, wrote in a 2013 article in the Journal of Strategic Studies that U.S. naval forces, mainly submarines and warships backed by air power, could impose an effective blockade on China. But the U.S. and allied blockade would need support from Russia — something no longer expected given the recent warming of ties between Moscow and Beijing.
A U.S. and allied naval blockade would require a mix of close and distant naval encirclement.
“By prosecuting a naval blockade, the United States would leverage China’s intense dependence on foreign trade — particularly oil — to debilitate the Chinese state,” Mr. Mirski stated. “If enacted, a blockade could exact a ruinous cost on the Chinese economy and state.”
But Gabriel Collins, another naval expert, said that a blockade of oil to China in a war would not produce strategic effects.
“While the U.S. military almost certainly can execute the blockade mission against the People’s Republic of China, adverse political and economic dynamics likely would turn tactical success into a strategic outcome that, at best, would be muddled,” Mr. Collins said in the journal Naval War College Review in 2018.
The legislation is contained in the House version of the authorization bill. The Senate version now being debated does not contain a similar provision. Both bills must first pass the full House and Senate before going to conference to reconcile differences between the two versions.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
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