China’s ties to Putin, Kremlin shaken by mercenary uprising

China’s leadership is closely watching recent events in Russia, concerned that a similar military revolt may erupt in Beijing, a senior White House official said Monday.

China’s communist government on Monday voiced support for Russia following the weekend military action by the Wagner Group, the shadowy private military force run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, in what analysts say reflects concerns China could lose a key ally in its battle against the democratic West.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning reaffirmed Beijing’s backing for Russian President Vladimir Putin following the revolt involving an estimated 25,000 Russian-funded mercenaries. “The Wagner Group incident is Russia’s internal affair,” Ms. Mao told reporters in Beijing.

The incident is widely viewed as the first major military challenge to Mr. Putin’s 23-year rule.

But with China’s support came a clear undercurrent of unease.

“Recent developments in Russia have been unsettling to the Chinese leadership,” said Kurt Campbell, the White House China policy czar, told a Monday session at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He declined to comment further on the impact of the failed uprising by the Wagner private military group.

Ms. Mao insisted Beijing’s strategic partnership with Russia remains sound and stated that “China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity, and we believe in Russia’s ability to do so.”

The two nations remained in close communications during the crisis, she said. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko traveled to Beijing for meetings last weekend. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a short statement that Foreign Ministry Qin Gang and Mr. Rudenko shared views on relations and regional issues of common concern.

The Russian Foreign Ministry, in its readout of the meeting, said China backed efforts by Russian leaders to stabilize the country “in connection to the events of June 24” — a reference to the Wagner revolt which included an aborted armed march on Moscow.

Chinese state-controlled outlets revealed divergent views on the uprising as countries around the world struggled to make sense of the weekend’s chaos and Mr. Putin’s hold on power.

Hu Xijin, former editor of the Chinese Communist Party-affiliated Global Times, wrote in a social media post that the uprising was a sign that Russian political stability is now in question following Mr. Prigozhin’s actions.

“His armed rebellion has made the Russian political situation cross the tipping point. Regardless of his outcome, Russia cannot return to the country it was before the rebellion anymore,” Mr. Hu stated.

The post was quickly removed in a sign it did not reflect official Communist Party policy.

Russia-based reporters for the Xinhua official news service suggested that the crisis — whatever its origins — had largely passed: “Russia appears to have stabilized the situation after the country’s Wagner private military group was accused of attempting to launch an armed rebellion,” the news service said in its report Monday. “… Xinhua reporters found that the incident did not cause a major disorder in Russian society and people’s life in Moscow and beyond was barely affected.”

The Global Times, known to be among the outlets in China promoting hardline nationalist views, reported on Sunday that hopes of Western governments that Mr. Putin will lose power as a result of the crisis is “wishful thinking.”

Mr. Putin’s ability to resolve the uprising as Wagner forces moved to Moscow “shows the Kremlin maintains a strong capability of deterrence, which will further increase its authority,” the news outlet stated, citing Chinese analysts.

Containing China’s critics

Victor Mair, professor of Chinese language and literature at the University of Pennsylvania, said Chinese President Xi Jinping has tried to guard against powerful figures in China launching a similar military revolt. For example, Mr. Xi ousted regional Communist Party chief Bo Xilai in 2013. Mr. Bo had regional military units aligned with him.

“Xi and the [Communist Party] are terrified of something like the Wagner revolt happening in the PRC,” Mr. Mair said, using the acronym for People’s Republic of China.

Mr. Mair said so far there do not appear to be strong regional or other factionalism within the People’s Liberation Army as is the case in Russia. The military continues to support Mr. Xi, who chairs the party’s powerful Central Military Commission.

“Regardless of what happens to Putin in Russia, we can expect lively scenarios regarding Xi’s quest to maintain complete control of the party and the state during the coming months,” Mr. Mair said.

Chinese generals in the past were known to have won wars for emperors but then were viewed as threats to power.

On Chinese social media, the Wagner uprising was a major topic of discussion, sparking increased censorship by the government.

Recent events in Russia are providing a first test of the February 2022 agreement between Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi that has been dubbed the “no limits” alliance agreement. The pact was concluded shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts say a change of government in Russia would have a major impact on China, which shares a 2,600-mile border with Russia and provides an economic lifeline to Russia through energy imports and other trade. Mr. Xi regards Mr. Putin as a key ally in China’s push to overturn the U.S.-led international order and replace it with a Chinese-dominated authoritarian system.

Chinese state television did not broadcast initial images of Wagner forces in Russia taking over some military facilities.

When a deal was reached for Wagner forces to stand down, state media showed the withdrawal of armored vehicles.

Chinese social media discussion of the Russian uprising included mentions of a Chinese saying: “If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold,” according to reports from Asia.

One social media post linked to the PLA Strategic Support Force, which conducts intelligence and cyber operations, noted that Mao Zedong reorganized the army in 1927 to ensure complete party control. The post was viewed online as a reference to events in Russia, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Some posts on the Twitter-like platform Weibo made references to “qingjunce” — a Chinese phrase that means powerful officials stage a coup to oust evil or corrupt officials around an emperor.

Censors then moved to block all references to the phrase, an indication of government sensitivities to military uprising.