OPINION:
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina is running for President of the United States. He is competing with several others for the nomination of the Republican Party. Many in the mainstream media appear to believe it is a forgone conclusion that Donald J. Trump will be the GOP nominee and thus, give little attention to other candidates. This is not only media malpractice, it is a blatant mistake.
Senator Scott currently polls in the low single digits. He is not as well known as some of his fellow Republicans. Some particularly difficult news came this past week in the form of a Rasmussen Reports poll. Over the past several national elections, no one has been more accurate than Rasmussen. In 2016 when many news outlets had polls showing Hillary Clinton up by 8 or more percentage points, Rasmussen showed her with just under a two point lead nationwide. Clinton lost the election of course, but famously won the popular vote in the process. Her margin? Just under two percentage points. Rasmussen knows their stuff.
That’s why it is worth paying attention when they share information garnered from their polling efforts. Last week Rasmussen said that most Americans don’t believe Tim Scott can win his party’s nomination. The numbers broke down this way: Sixty-two percent (62%) don’t think it’s likely the black South Carolina senator will get the 2024 GOP nomination, including 32% who say it is Not At All Likely. Another 16% are not sure. Those numbers aren’t encouraging.
The one glimmer, the same poll found 21% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Scott is likely to end up being the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. That means one out of five voters think he is the man.
Is he though? A CNN poll released on Tuesday, June 20 found that only 4 percent of Republicans support Senator Scott. That’s a tough number to build from. Tough, but not impossible.
A look back in history may help us see if 4% is an insurmountable number. In 1995 the city of Jacksonville, Florida had a mayoral election. Jake Godbold had served as Mayor from 1978 to 1987. Tom Hazouri succeeded Godbold as Mayor, serving from 1987 to 1991. Both men decided they wanted another term at Jacksonville’s helm. Also running was a little known State Attorney named John Delaney. Early polls showed Delaney was merely an afterthought among voters, getting just 4% support.
Not only was Delaney poorly known, he was a registered Republican. No Republican had been elected to the Jacksonville Mayor’s seat since 1888. The deck was firmly stacked against him.
Week by week, however, Delaney delivered a strong, positive message to the people of Northeast Florida. Month by month he gained in the polls. Ultimately Delaney defeated the two past Mayors.
His story doesn’t end there. During his two terms in office Mayor Delaney led the way on new roads, bridges, water and sewer expansion, environmental clean up, land acquisition for parks, and four new downtown buildings. He also successfully made a Triple A baseball facility, a new Arena, a new county courthouse, and new central Library all a reality. Delaney was so popular that the guy who was once a candidate given no chance to win, was the only Mayoral candidate since Jacksonville’s birth in 1820 to run without opposition. He left office with approval ratings above 80%.
All of this is illustrative of what can happen when a top quality candidate has a positive message and communicates effectively to the people he wishes to serve.
Senator Tim Scott has a very upbeat message. He spends no time denigrating other candidates. Instead he talks about his inspiring life story. He offers how he would approach various challenges. He doesn’t shy away from faith in God. In short, he inspires.
The super PAC that is aligned with Scott has more than $22 million set aside, allowing media buys and other support that no other candidate can afford this early in the game.
In 1994 Delaney polled at 4%. In 2023 Scott is polling at 4%. Both focused on positive upbeat messages intended to bring people together. Delaney left office popular among both Republicans and Democrats and equally well liked by Blacks and Whites. Senator Scott is uniquely positioned in today’s polarized world to do the same.
In a news world saturated in the Trump drama of the day, it is easy to overlook other candidates. Don’t make that mistake. Don’t underestimate Senator Tim Scott.
- Tim Constantine is a columnist with The Washington Times.
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