Republicans suffered a political drubbing following the Supreme Court’s decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and one year later, the party is weighing how to talk to voters about the issue ahead of the 2024 election.
The results of the 2022 midterm elections and ample polling data have sent a warning to Republicans that the high court decision, and the spread of ultra-strict abortion bans in some red states, could sink their chances of winning critical seats in the House and Senate as well as the White House in 2024.
The Supreme Court’s ruling on June 24, 2022, overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion at the federal level. The landmark decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization is credited with helping to defeat Republicans last year in key House and Senate midterm races by driving up Democratic turnout and turning women and independent voters against GOP candidates.
As House and Senate Republicans look to 2024, they blame the political fallout on poor messaging.
“The Supreme Court made the right decision and it’s one that many of us have been working for, for many years,” Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Republican who is serving his fourth term, told The Washington Times. “But I don’t think everybody was prepared to talk about what the consequences would be. Of course, that means that the states would be making those decisions.”
The Supreme Court ruling sent decisions on abortion law back to the states, and a growing number of Republican-led states have imposed strict bans on the procedure, with some banning it entirely.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming Republican, said Republicans did a poor job explaining the impact of the decision to the public and they allowed Democrats to frame the GOP as a party in favor of a strict national ban.
“We’ve done a terrible job messaging,” Ms. Lummis told The Washington Times. “We handled it so poorly and the pro-choice people handled it so well, that I’m hopeful that now that a year has passed, people can see that it is truly back in the states’ hands, as opposed to a national prohibition.”
Ms. Lummis said she tells constituents her position — and the Supreme Court’s ruling — is that individual states, and not the federal government, should decide abortion law. Ms. Lummis also explains to voters her view that the issue goes beyond a woman’s reproductive rights.
“I think we need to emphasize that it’s about two lives,” she said. “It’s not just women’s rights.”
Wyoming lawmakers voted to ban abortion completely, but the law has been blocked in court so far.
Ms. Lummis said voters should understand that, under the Supreme Court ruling, “many states still offer it and they can see that this is really about each state’s core values.”
Sen. Todd Young, Indiana Republican who recently chaired the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, said he hasn’t struggled with his messaging on abortion in deep-red Indiana, where the legislature recently passed a law banning the procedure after 10 weeks.
Mr. Young said the party has fallen short in providing the money needed to care for pregnant women and the babies who are born as a result of the Supreme Court decision and subsequent state laws restricting abortion.
“If it requires conservatives to rethink their limited government philosophy so that we can enhance their pro-life policies, then so be it,” Mr. Young said. “We just have not seen this sort of response from many at the ground level.”
Democrats say the year-old Supreme Court decision remains a winning issue for their party ahead of 2024, and polls back up their prediction.
A Gallup poll released earlier this month found 61% of Americans think the high court’s decision last year to overturn federally protected abortion and return the matter to the states was “a bad thing.”
The poll also found the percentage of Americans who want abortion banned in all circumstances has dwindled to 13%, while a record-high 69% say abortion should be legal in the first trimester.
Sen. Richard J. Durbin, Illinois Democrat who serves as the minority whip, said the Supreme Court decision was cataclysmic for the GOP politically and will continue to benefit Democratic candidates as more Republican-led states restrict access to abortion.
“It’s realigning the American electorate,” Mr. Durbin said. “I am seeing people who were never that strongly on the side of pro-choice, feeling much different, now that they are seeing what is happening. I think it’s had an impact on women and on younger voters that is going to be a benefit to our party for some time.”
Several lawmakers told The Times the GOP can fight back by emphasizing the Democratic Party’s position on abortion, which polls show is also out of line with most Americans.
Democrats in Congress have backed legislation legalizing abortion under all circumstances up until birth, which is supported by only 10% of voters, according to most polls.
“I think what pro-life people have failed to do is explain the radical position that Democrats are taking,” Mr. Cornyn said. “Shame on us for not taking them to task on that.”
Ahead of the 2022 midterms, Sen. Lindsey Graham was blamed for hurting swing-district Republican candidates by introducing a bill that would impose a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks. Mr. Graham said he does not believe abortion law should be decided by the states and plans to introduce the bill again in the near future.
Polls have shown mixed support for a 15-week ban on abortion, although the recent Gallup poll found 55% of Americans felt abortion in the second trimester and beyond should be prohibited. The pro-life group Susan B. Anthony said it won’t back any presidential candidate who does not support a minimum 15-week ban.
Ms. Lummis said while she supports states deciding abortion law individually and not being forced to conform to a federal standard, Mr. Graham “has picked a reasonable pro-choice standard and so I can’t fault him for that.”
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
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