SEOUL, South Korea — Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese President Xi Jinping declared themselves satisfied Monday after two days of fence-mending talks in Beijing, but other conversations in China’s neighborhood are giving Mr. Xi greater cause for concern.
The defense chiefs of India and Vietnam — two states that have fought wars against China and have unsettled territorial disputes with Beijing — are holding talks in New Delhi.
Defense cooperation deals are expected to be inked this week when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi summits with President Biden during a state visit in Washington on Thursday.
Last week, the national security chiefs of Japan, the Philippines and the U.S. huddled in Tokyo to lay out blueprints for what appears to be the region’s third U.S.-led trilateral defense partnership to confront Chinese challenges.
China’s territorial disputes include a sometimes violent clash with India in the high Himalayas. Various parleys cannot be reassuring as Beijing battles multiple states over territorial claims to the South China Sea, remains in a frozen conflict with Japan over islands in the East China Sea and faces an existential dispute over the future of Taiwan.
That might explain Beijing’s decision to allow Mr. Blinken to visit for long-delayed talks, but it’s also a sign that Chinese behaviors are alienating the region, one analyst said. According to this reading, China’s actions are sparking a predictable reaction.
SEE ALSO: South Korea faces China down in diplomatic escalation
“The trend over the past few years is that China is perceived as being forward-leaning, but its assertiveness is making people wary and encouraging coalition-building,” said Daniel Pinkston, an international relations professor at Troy University. “The Chinese are not oblivious to what is going on, so maybe there is a sense of overreach. Maybe they have hit a wall.”
Eyes on China
A high-level delegation led by Gen. Phan Van Giang, the Vietnamese defense minister, is paying an official visit to India this week at the invitation of Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh.
India is a democracy and a member of the nonbinding Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” along with Australia, Japan and the U.S. Vietnam remains a one-party communist regime, but both nations are nonaligned and both depend substantially on weapons from Russia.
Both also have reasons to look askance at China.
India, which fought a border war with China in 1962, is jostling with Chinese troops over the hazy boundary in the Himalayas.
SEE ALSO: Olive branch? Blinken offers Biden’s conciliation to China
Vietnam fought a border war with China in 1979 and is at odds with Chinese forces trying to enforce aggressive sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.
“The visit of Minister Phan Van Giang and the Vietnamese delegation has contributed to the further development of bilateral defense cooperation — an important and strategic pillar of the Vietnam-India comprehensive strategic partnership,” Vietnam’s state-controlled press reported.
Indian press outlets reported that the two countries had agreed on military-to-military exchanges, high-level visits, training programs, bilateral drills and maritime cooperation.
India administers the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and controls access to the northwestern entrance to the Malacca Strait, a shipping channel vital to China and other East Asian states. Southeast Asian nations dominate the strait’s southeastern entrance.
“In the last few years, India has been supplying missiles and other weapons for the Vietnamese navy, so from that perspective, a kind of alliance is emerging with China as a factor in mind,” said Lakhvinder Singh, an Indian academic who heads the Asia Institute’s peace studies program.
India, whose navy includes two aircraft carriers, two nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and 16 conventional submarines, is equipped to be a power player in the Bay of Bengal and beyond.
Mr. Singh emphasized that New Delhi is not targeting a specific country in its buildup but added, “No other country in the region can take the responsibility we have. We have the population, economic resources and military resources to make a balance of power and ensure rule of law.”
As part of Mr. Modi’s state visit, Mr. Biden and his aides will likely try to wean India off its reliance on Russian arms. Anticipated deals, according to Reuters, include approval for General Electric to manufacture engines for Indian fighter jets, a purchase agreement for SeaGuardian drones made by General Atomics worth $3 billion, and removal of U.S. law and regulations that prevent smoother trade in defense and high technology.
A trio of trilateral partnerships
Nations are aligning against China even when the U.S. is not there to prod them.
The national defense advisers of Japan, South Korea and the Philippines held their first-ever joint dialogue in Tokyo on Friday. The three discussed trilateral naval drills and the transfer of Japanese naval gear to Manila. On Thursday, Japanese and U.S. advisers met with their South Korean counterparts for strategic talks.
Australia, Britain and the U.S. are proceeding with their AUKUS framework, and the nascent Tokyo-Manila-Washington network is another of the three-way regional partnerships.
From China’s perspective, a favorable political environment has enabled Washington to forge a chain of defensive relationships that dominate key naval chokepoints north and south of Taiwan and could frustrate Beijing’s regional ambitions before they can get going in earnest.
In Manila, the pro-U.S. government of Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos has granted the Pentagon rotational basing rights in Palawan and Luzon. Palawan faces Chinese air-sea bases in the South China Sea. Luzon offers the ideal springboard to interdict Chinese naval traffic through the strategic Luzon Strait between the Philippines and nearby Taiwan.
In Seoul, conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol has moved swiftly to upgrade his security alliance with the United States and repair relations with Japan, offering Washington its long-sought dream of a trilateral security net east of China. Mr. Yoon’s administration reacted with unusual vigor to a diplomatic dust-up when the Chinese ambassador to Seoul effectively warned South Korea against allying too closely with Washington.
In Japan, conservative Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is implementing multiple long-term policies to build up the country’s military forces, increase their long-range effectiveness to project power and give Tokyo more options in any conflict with China over the contested Japan-administered Senkaku Islands or Taiwan.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.