Blinken’s China visit to carry burden of blame for tensions

Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to China on Friday for a fence-mending visit amid historically high friction between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan, brazen international spying attempts, and China’s security and economic clashes with the U.S. and its allies across Asia.

Although the Biden administration has cautiously stepped up direct contacts with China’s communist regime, officials say the trip is unlikely to produce a major easing of tensions.

The trip was originally slated for February but was scrapped after a Chinese surveillance balloon was spotted traversing the continental United States before the Pentagon shot it down. Administration officials say Mr. Blinken aims to keep lines of communication open between the world’s two most prominent powers and establish what U.S. officials describe as “guardrails” to keep the relationship from deteriorating.

“We’re not going to Beijing with the intent of having some sort of breakthrough or transformation in the way that we deal with one another,” Daniel J. Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told reporters on Wednesday.

“We’re coming to Beijing with a realistic, confident approach and a sincere desire to manage our competition in the most responsible way possible,” he said.

Mr. Blinken is not traveling with a strong reservoir of political support. China has been the focus of intense, often bipartisan criticism on Capitol Hill, and the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee said Wednesday that Mr. Blinken and President Biden should look for ways to be tougher on China.

“The Biden administration is holding back U.S. national security actions to chase fruitless talks with the [Chinese Communist Party],” said a statement by Rep. Michael McCaul, Texas Republican. “While diplomacy is an important tool, it cannot come at the expense of our national security. Secretary Blinken must move forward sanctions and export controls and prioritize the protection of American interests during discussions with [Chinese] officials.”

Chinese officials have said they welcome renewed contacts with the U.S. but contend that the Biden administration is to blame for a surge in tensions in the bilateral relationship. The official Xinhua News Agency reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang told Mr. Blinken in a phone call early Wednesday that it was “crystal clear” who was responsible for the bad blood.

“It is hoped that the United States will work with China to effectively manage differences and promote exchanges and cooperation so as to stop the decline of bilateral relations and bring them back to the track of sound and stable development,” Mr. Qin said.

A productive visit by Mr. Blinken could clear the way for a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to a summit of Pacific Rim countries that Mr. Biden is set to host in San Francisco in November. After his Beijing stop, Mr. Blinken is scheduled to travel to London for a gathering on reconstruction aid for Ukraine.

‘No illusions’

Critics say the administration is pandering to a communist regime that employs anti-U.S. rhetoric and seeks to challenge American interests globally, but Mr. Biden’s top Asia adviser said he has no illusions about what one trip can do.

“We’re clear-eyed about [China],” Kurt Campbell, deputy assistant to the president and coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, said on the telephone press conference with Mr. Kritenbrink.

“We know efforts to shape or reform China over several decades have failed, and we expect China to be around and to be a major player on the world stage for the rest of our lifetimes,” Mr. Campbell said. “As the competition continues, [China] will take provocative steps — from the Taiwan Strait to Cuba — and we will push back.”

China has been operating a surveillance post on Cuba for more than three years to monitor events in the U.S. Lawmakers have harshly condemned the effort, and Beijing has accused Washington of misrepresenting and hyping the discovery to embarrass China.

U.S.-Chinese friction is hottest over the Washington-backed island democracy of Taiwan. Beijing views Taiwan as part of sovereign China and has vowed to bring it under Chinese control, using military force if necessary. Successive U.S. administrations have responded to China’s threats by increasing American naval activity around the Taiwan Strait and rallying other regional democracies to preserve the status quo for Taiwan.

China says it is the U.S. that has tried to change the status quo by steadily increasing military aid to Taiwan and rallying allies in the event of a military clash.

U.S. officials also have criticized China’s refusal to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine and have expressed concern about Beijing’s construction of military bases on disputed islands in the South China Sea. The U.S. government and private rights groups have condemned China’s crackdown on democratic and economic freedoms in Hong Kong and its harsh repression campaign against Uyghur Muslims.

Mr. Blinken will be the most senior U.S. official to visit China since Mr. Biden took office in 2021. Regional experts say his trip could build on lower-level and behind-the-scenes engagements during the months since the secretary of state’s February trip was canceled.

CIA Director William J. Burns traveled quietly to China in May while China’s commerce minister visited the United States. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held a lengthy May meeting in Vienna with Wang Yi, head of the Communist Party Central Committee’s Foreign Affairs Commission.

Analysts say the two sides could make progress if they agree to disagree on the hot-button issues.

“Blinken can build on the beginnings of a U.S.-China diplomatic thaw by making concrete progress on areas of mutual concern (like climate change, health security and global economic recovery) while working to unwind the escalating dynamics over Taiwan,” Michael Swaine, a senior fellow with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said in an email. “The trip also offers an opportunity for the Biden administration to assure many American allies and partners that the U.S. shares their interest in avoiding a hostile, zero-sum relationship with China and pursuing constructive cooperation where possible.”

Cautious on Taiwan

Administration critics are more circumspect, particularly about Taiwan.

Some expressed concern after a blunt assertion by Gen. Li Shangfu, Chinese defense minister, who said in a speech during the recent Shangri-La Dialogue defense conference in Singapore that Beijing will “make no promise to renounce the use of force” if necessary to make Taiwan part of China. Gen. Li declined a U.S. request to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Singapore about U.S. sanctions on him since the Trump administration.

Mr. Qin, the Chinese foreign minister, told Mr. Blinken in their pre-visit phone conversation that Washington must respect China’s position on Taiwan. In a preview of how Mr. Blinken’s trip may unfold, Mr. Qin urged the United States to stop meddling in China’s affairs and harming its security, according to the Reuters news agency.

A more low-key State Department summary of the call said Mr. Blinken stressed the need for communication “to avoid miscalculation and conflict” and told Mr. Qin that the U.S. would raise areas of concern and potential cooperation with China. The call might have been a way to lay down markers for both sides on the Taiwan issue before talks begin Sunday on other matters of concern.

Discussions also are expected to be tense on the issue of China’s status as the world’s leading source of the machinery to produce fentanyl — the deadly synthetic drug at the center of an opioid smuggling crisis along the U.S. southern border and abuse epidemic in several states.

U.S. lawmakers say the administration should do more to pressure China to crack down on illicit production.

Mr. Kritenbrink told reporters that fentanyl “is one of the most important issues” hanging over Mr. Blinken’s trip. “It will feature prominently,” he said. “And we are focused intently on making as much progress as we can because this is an absolutely critical and urgent issue for the United States.”

Mr. Campbell said the administration is pursuing “an approach to [China] that is competitive without veering into confrontation or conflict.”

“Intense competition requires intense diplomacy if we’re going to manage tensions,” he said. “That is the only way to clear up misperceptions, to signal, to communicate, and to work together where and when our interests align.

“Now is precisely the time for intense diplomacy,” Mr. Campbell said.