Military coup sets back U.S. missions for democracy; adversaries score new strategic opportunity

Chaos and political upheaval in Niger have opened a wide window of opportunity for U.S. adversaries and could jeopardize American counterterrorism missions across Africa, leaving the Biden administration with few good options as an unfolding military coup in Niamey catches the West off guard.

Although not well known or much followed in U.S. policy debates, the Texas-sized central African country has played an outsized role in the great-power strategic game for influence and allies on the continent. The apparent sidelining of elected President Mohamed Bazoum is an unquestionable setback for U.S. and other Western interests in the region.

Pro-military demonstrators reportedly shouted “Long live Russia” and other pro-Moscow slogans on the streets of the Nigerien capital on Sunday and Monday, underscoring the growing influence of U.S. adversaries on the continent. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group, has reportedly praised the apparent military coup that ousted Mr. Bazoum on Wednesday and has even offered assistance from his hired fighters to restore order in the country.

In the latest example of the deep rift between Mr. Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin has called for the release of Mr. Bazoum, who is under house arrest. It’s unclear whether Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner fighters have played any role in the coup.

Russia’s involvement aside, it’s little surprise that Niger seems to be backsliding away from democracy and toward a potential military dictatorship, analysts say. The U.S. has drone bases and more than 1,000 personnel in the country, but a lack of deep, meaningful engagement has contributed to the deteriorating situation, specialists say. They warn that Niger may be the latest domino to fall in a region where U.S. adversaries appear to have the upper hand and the momentum.

“The idea that Russian flags materialize organically on the streets of dusty African cities is naive. Rather, it appears once again the United States has been blindsided,” Michael Rubin, a former Defense Department official and now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in a recent analysis.

“The United States spends hundreds of billions of dollars on diplomacy, defense and intelligence and yet, across administrations, it only reacts after the fact rather than implements a proactive strategy across countries, regions, and continents,” he wrote. “There is no excuse. Russia’s march across the Sahel will be no less consequential for the coming decades as the Soviet march across Eastern Europe was in the wake of World War II.”

Until recently, Niger was one of the region’s few functioning democracies. Nigeriens marked their first peaceful power transfer from Mahamadou Issoufou to Mr. Bazoum in April 2021 after decades of military rule and numerous coups.

In Washington, the Biden administration is still holding out hope. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller on Monday again declined to label the situation a “coup,” although the Nigerien military appears to have forcibly placed a democratically elected president under arrest. Such a designation sets off a series of mandatory steps that could leave Washington without any ability to influence the course of events.

“With respect to any determination, I’d say we haven’t made a determination yet because it is still an ongoing, fluid situation,” Mr. Miller told reporters. “We are watching, monitoring the situation and trying to prevent President Bazoum from being removed from office.”

Mr. Miller stressed that the “hundreds of millions of dollars” in U.S. financial aid to Niger is “very much in the balance” and could be cut off if the elected government isn’t restored to power.

Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, who spearheaded the coup and is detaining Mr. Bazoum in his presidential compound, has shown no signs of relinquishing power in what would be the seventh military coup across the sub-Saharan belt of African countries in the past three years.

Gen. Tiani, 59, who headed Mr. Bazoum’s personal military guard unit, is using many of the justifications that military leaders in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have used. In particular, military leaders say civilian governments are not up to the task of fighting off violent jihadi groups operating widely in the region.

“We cannot continue with the same approaches proposed so far, as it risks witnessing the gradual and inevitable disappearance of our nation,” he said upon seizing power last week.

Far-reaching ramifications

The next several days will be crucial for Niger’s political future and the broader security picture in the region. The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, demanded over the weekend that the elected government be restored immediately.

“In the event the authority’s demands are not met within one week, [the bloc will] take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. Such measures may include the use of force,” the group said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the ECOWAS statement on Sunday and said the U.S. would cooperate with African allies on the next steps forward. It’s unclear whether the U.S. would back the direct military force of ECOWAS.

Either way, the implications for the U.S. could be enormous.

Niger, landlocked with one of the world’s poorest populations, has become an unlikely cornerstone for the U.S. war against jihadi groups on the continent, particularly Africa’s northern Sahel region, which has become arguably the global epicenter of extremism.

Niger’s role in U.S. counterterrorism efforts entered the public spotlight in October 2017, when four U.S. Green Berets and four Nigerien soldiers were killed in an extremist ambush. The U.S. forces deployed alongside their Nigerien counterparts in pursuit of a militant affiliated with the Islamic State.

Unable to locate the target, the forces began to return to their bases but were ambushed near the village of Tongo Tongo in what appeared to be a planned assault.

The incident sparked bewilderment and anger on Capitol Hill. Some prominent lawmakers said they weren’t even aware that the U.S. had troops in Niger.

In the years since, Niger’s importance to U.S. military operations has grown. Niger is home to two key U.S. drone bases and at least 1,000 American military personnel and military detachments from France, Italy and other European countries.

Africa’s Sahel region, which includes parts of southern Niger, has become one of the world’s most fertile breeding grounds for ISIS, al Qaeda, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen and other extremist groups.

Analysts warn that a full-blown military coup in Niger, like those in other Sahel nations in recent years, could fuel even more extremism.

“While much is still unknown about the political-military drama playing out in the capital and what positions the junta will take on critical issues, the junta risks repeating the same mistakes of its neighbors: a Sahelian military, playing on popular frustration with the government for its failure to contain jihadist violence, topples said government only to see jihadist violence escalate,” James Barnett, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, wrote in a recent analysis.