OPINION:
In April, we noted in a Washington Times opinion piece that the People’s Liberation Army had completed two of three major military dress rehearsals required for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
We argued the final major PLA rehearsal would likely occur in August, which the PLA would have demonstrated to General Secretary Xi Jinping and China’s Central Military Commission that they have met all the qualifications to conduct a successful invasion of the main island of Taiwan.
These exercises are the essential components of the Chinese Communist Party’s grand design to take Taiwan by force.
According to a July 23 Chinese press report, the Chinese navy has just conducted a “cross sea troop transport exercise” using the 23,000-ton civilian roll-on/roll-off (RO-RO) ship, the Chang Shan Dao, to transport multiple types of Chinese military vehicles, including “off-road tactical vehicles, wheeled infantry fighting vehicles, trucks and jeeps together with a large number of troops.”
Civilian RO-RO ships significantly enhance the Chinese navy’s amphibious lift capacity due to its possession of doors and ramps at both the bow and stern that enable combat vehicles, equipment, and troops to enter and exit the ship without having to turn around.
This increases the throughput of such material in a shorter time span. The use of these specialized ships will play a vital role in large amphibious landing missions.
This report suggests that the initial preparations for a large amphibious landing are underway. We have suggested and still maintain that in the fall, China will find an excuse to conduct the third and final dress rehearsal, thus certifying its military’s readiness to invade Taiwan.
The two earlier major exercises provided indications that Beijing was putting the pieces in place to conduct this final rehearsal.
To recap: In August 2022, the Chinese military conducted a rehearsal of a joint fire strike campaign. This past April, China conducted a joint anti-air raid campaign rehearsal under the rubric of exercise “Joint Sword 2023.”
This was the second major rehearsal for an invasion of Taiwan in the past 10 months. In each case, the CCP used the excuse of independence forces on Taiwan meeting with the speaker of the House of Representatives (Reps. Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy, respectively) as the impetus for these provocative acts, but that explanation is a cover for conducting these invasion rehearsal exercises.
In the Aug. 4-7, 2022 exercise, the Chinese military conducted its largest air-missile-maritime exercises around Taiwan witnessed thus far. This exercise tested China’s joint force operations by employing coordinated use of space, cyber, air, army and naval forces.
The main element of this “joint fire strike” rehearsal was the firing of 11 ballistic missiles surrounding Taiwan. While unprecedented, the firing of these ballistic missiles — the joint fire strike — is designed to isolate key military and political positions to minimize the ability of Taiwan to resist follow-on invasion forces.
The highlight of Joint Sword was the large number of Chinese combat aircraft (232) employed as part of China’s “joint anti-air raid” campaign, which is designed to first establish air superiority (a temporary control of airspace) and ultimately air supremacy over Taiwan.
With an unprecedented 134 aircraft crossing the centerline of the Taiwan Strait during the exercise, the Chinese navy’s Shandong aircraft carrier operated east of Taiwan, providing air control over the eastern shore of Taiwan.
Again, it is an unprecedented event and represents the second of three steps in China’s Taiwan invasion strategy. The final major element of the strategy to be exercised by China is the “joint island landing” campaign.
Once key targets in Taiwan are neutralized by the Joint Fire Strike Campaign and control of the air over Taiwan is achieved during the Joint Anti-Air Raid Campaign, the Chinese navy will then launch an amphibious invasion of the island that will include the use of a large number of civilian RO-RO ships, without fear of being repelled by Taiwanese or allied forces.
Given the reporting of the Chinese “cross sea troop transport exercise” and the upcoming travel of leading Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te to Paraguay via the U.S. between Aug. 14 and Aug. 16, expect China to conduct this final rehearsal, the Joint Island Landing Campaign, sometime in mid-August.
Beijing has already devoted considerable attention to Mr. Lai’s visit, and it clearly concerns the CCP.
We argue that the timeline is now even shorter, as we expect the landing campaign to commence in the next eight weeks. It will be conducted on the mainland coast of Fujian and Guangdong provinces.
It will be the final rehearsal before any real invasion of the main island.
At that point, all China will need to do is increase the scale of each of these key campaigns for the real invasion. This should not be a problem given the greater numbers of ballistic missiles, aircraft, ships, submarines, civilian RO-ROs and amphibious assault ships that have been tested.
Thus, as China is putting the big pieces in place for an invasion, the U.S. and its allies are far too passive given the urgency of the invasion timeline. U.S. and allied support for Taiwan must be rushed to provide Taipei with the ability to deter an invasion and defend itself should deterrence fail.
The Biden administration has made Ukraine’s defense a priority. It must make Taiwan’s defense a greater one immediately as, first, Taiwan is a key economic, political and strategic partner, and second, the U.S. has the chance to deter an invasion rather than fight a war with China.
Deterrence is going to require the deployment of more U.S. forces on and around Taiwan to provide an impact on Mr. Xi’s invasion calculus.
These forces and capabilities are urgently needed. Other, longer-term developments are important as well, such as the U.S. Navy’s request to increase the production of key missile systems.
This is long overdue, and it remains unclear whether industry will be able to respond successfully in the near term.
The U.S. military presence in the Western Pacific must be visibly reinforced now to provide the robust deterrent that Taiwan requires at once. The invasion is coming.
• James Fanell is a government fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, a retired captain in the Navy and a former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Bradley A. Thayer is director of China policy at the Center for Security Policy. He is the co-author with Lianchao Han of “Understanding the China Threat.”
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