GOP candidates tell skeptical primary voters why to back Ukraine: Russian win would help China

Republican presidential hopefuls have been struggling to explain their support for Ukraine to a party electorate decidedly skeptical of America’s interests in the war with Russia.

They have settled on saying the war in Europe is just as much about China.

“When the Ukrainian military drives Russia off their soil and reclaims their sovereignty, I think we’ll send a deafening message to China and other countries that might be considering military aggression,” former Vice President Mike Pence declared during a surprise visit to Ukraine last month.

Nikki Haley, a former ambassador to the United Nations, struck a similar note in a speech to the American Enterprise Institute. She said China is the primary threat to the U.S. and is closely watching Europe to see how the world responds to an aggressor nation’s intervention.

Stopping Russia, she said, will pay dividends as the U.S. tries to constrain Chinese ambitions toward Taiwan and the South China Sea.

“If we do that, China will see our resolve and rethink its plans for Taiwan,” Ms. Haley said. “It will see the true cost of war before it launches one.

“It will realize that America will not roll over — that we will do what is necessary to defend our interests and defeat our enemies,” she said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been divisive for Republicans.

On one side, high-profile Republicans, particularly inside the foreign policy establishment, insist that the U.S. must provide whatever assistance Ukraine needs to prevail.

On the other side, a loud chorus of isolationist voices led by former President Donald Trump warns that the U.S. is meddling in a regional conflict where it has limited strategic interests and insists the money would be better spent at home.

That sentiment was laid bare during negotiations over the annual Pentagon policy bill after Trump-inspired Republicans tried but failed to cut funding for Ukraine and roll back U.S. involvement in the war. The measures to bar or restrict funding for Ukraine were defeated in bipartisan landslides in the Republican-run House.

The Republican split on Ukraine is reflected in polls. A recent Gallup survey found that half of Republicans concluded that the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine and preferred to end the conflict quickly — even if that meant Russia would keep captured territory.

Roughly half of Republican voters take the opposite view and support Ukraine’s campaign to reclaim its territory even if it prolongs the war.

Overall, 62% of Americans want to support the Ukraine war effort.

For Republican presidential contenders who want to support Ukraine, tying Russia to China is a way to tip voters in favor of the war effort. It also gives Republican candidates an avenue to ding Mr. Trump, who has been staunchly noncommittal about backing Ukraine.

“There is more conservative support for Ukraine than commonly believed,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at AEI who specializes in U.S.-China relations.

He said Republican candidates have room to attack Mr. Trump on China “because the reality is that he was quite deferential to Beijing in several instances.”

Mr. Cooper said the former president didn’t follow up when China broke the terms of a trade deal, expressed support for President Xi Jinping’s crackdown in Hong Kong and “questioned U.S. support for Taiwan in several publicly reported cases.”

“I think that will provide an opening for others to criticize his record on China,” Mr. Cooper said.

That’s encouraging for 2024 presidential hopefuls struggling to drive a wedge between Mr. Trump and his dedicated support base.

Republicans, particularly hard-line conservatives, are more skeptical of China than Democrats, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.

“Nearly nine-in-ten conservative Republicans say China does not contribute much or at all to global peace and stability relative to around eight-in-ten moderate and liberal Republicans,” Pew found.

New Hampshire Republican Party Chair Chris Ager, who remains neutral in the race, said the message has yet to break through to voters.

“Most voters I’ve interacted with have not made the correlation between Ukraine and China,” he said. “Kitchen table issues like inflation, taxes, education, the border and crime top the list of what’s on people’s minds.”

In her AEI speech, Ms. Haley blamed President Biden and Mr. Trump for doing “too little” to confront the China threat.

She said Mr. Trump showed “moral weakness” in his “zeal to befriend” Mr. Xi by congratulating the Communist Party on its 70th anniversary of conquering China.

“That sent the wrong message to the world. Chinese communism must be condemned, never congratulated,” she said.

In a recent interview on Fox News, Mr. Trump was reluctant to mix it up over Russia or China.

“If I tell you an answer, it’s going to hurt me in negotiations, on the assumption that I win,” he said, though he added that he has a “very good relationship” with China’s president.

He said China didn’t invade Taiwan during his term in office and took a less-aggressive rhetorical approach to the island it claims as its rightful territory.

Mr. Trump said he could strike a deal to settle the Ukraine-Russia conflict within 24 hours and claimed that he deterred Russian President Vladimir Putin from aggression in Ukraine while in office.

Mr. Pence, his vice president, said Mr. Trump did show a striking amount of “clarity” on China policy.

Still, Mr. Pence has mocked Mr. Trump’s pledge to wind down the war in one day. He said the only way that would happen is if Mr. Putin gets everything he wants.

Mr. Pence said Mr. Trump has been shortsighted in terms of Ukraine and, therefore, China.

“China may not be an evil empire, but under President Xi, it certainly aspires to become one,” Mr. Pence said earlier this year. “President Xi’s vision for the world is one in which freedom is constrained but Beijing’s power is not.”