OPINION:
As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan begins his third decade in power, he has solidified his place as Turkey’s second-most consequential leader after Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded the republic a century ago.
With the opposition disempowered if not in disarray, Mr. Erdogan now seeks to fulfill his lifelong ambition: the complete and permanent reversal of Ataturk’s legacy of modern reforms.
American and European officials who believe, with the election in the rearview mirror, that they can return to business as usual with Turkey are dangerously mistaken. The issues that concern Mr. Erdogan most are neither interest rates at home nor Swedish NATO accession abroad, but rather laying the groundwork for the renewal of an Islamic state if not formal caliphate.
Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin considers the downfall of the Soviet Union the 20th century’s greatest “geopolitical catastrophe,” Mr. Erdogan believes it was the Ottoman Empire’s collapse.
None of this is idle speculation. Mr. Erdogan has said exactly what he wants.
He has described himself as the “imam of Istanbul” and as “servant of Sharia.” He declared that his goal is “to raise a religious generation.” He has described Turkish forces invading Syria as the “Army of Muhammad.” The reconversion of the Hagia Sophia into a mosque did not occur in isolation.
The latest foul play by Mr. Erdogan involves Armenia, the world’s oldest Christian nation. As Mr. Erdogan seeks to extend the reach of the Turkic and Islamic world from Turkey’s border with Greece and Bulgaria to China, Armenia, a country just slightly larger than Maryland, stands in his way.
Today, Mr. Erdogan believes he has found his moment to reverse this geopolitical inconvenience. The Turks tried more than a century ago, wiping away more than a million Armenians in a genocide Adolf Hitler cited as an inspiration for the Holocaust.
Armenians say it was no coincidence that Turkey’s chief ally, Azerbaijan, used Turkish-piloted, U.S.-provided F-16s while operating alongside Turkish special forces to launch a surprise attack in September 2020 on the Armenian-populated enclave Nagorno-Karabakh.
The attack came on the 100th anniversary of the Ottoman invasion of newly independent Armenia.
That the two countries act in conjunction is no surprise. Both leaders often describe their relationship as “one nation, two states.” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev today is to Mr. Erdogan what Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is to Mr. Putin. Mr. Aliyev is essentially Mr. Erdogan’s Mini-Me.
Today, Russia plays a cynical game. Traditionally, it guaranteed Armenia’s security. But in 2018, Armenia committed what Mr. Putin considers an unforgivable sin: choosing democracy. Today, Mr. Putin sides with Messrs. Erdogan and Aliyev to punish Armenia’s transgression.
The situation now comes to a head. As the Biden administration seeks to negotiate peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Mr. Aliyev demands the 120,000 Christians of Nagorno-Karabakh become sacrificial lambs.
Azerbaijan has blocked the Lachin Corridor that allows the free flow of aid and people in and out of the Christian enclave. Russia had been the guarantor, but now it looks away.
Messrs. Erdogan and Aliyev are sophisticated. Genocide occurs best in the dark, so he bans journalists and diplomats from Nagorno-Karabakh, so that his propaganda need not confront truth.
After the Holocaust, the world said, “Never again.” Fifty years later, after the slaughter of Bosnian Muslims at Srebrenica despite supposed international protection, diplomats swore again, “Never again.”
Today, Nagorno-Karabakh’s regional capital, Stepanakert, is becoming the new Srebrenica. The region’s Christians need action, not empty rhetoric.
The Biden administration seeks to broker peace, but lasting peace rests on values. If democracy will triumph and Nagorno-Karabakh Christians are to survive on land they have lived on for millenniums, the West needs more than words.
Fortunately, Congress already has the necessary policy arrows in its quiver.
Rather than look the other way or waive Section 907 restrictions on providing Azerbaijan military equipment it uses against Armenians, it is time to stop subsidizing slaughter. Azerbaijan’s promises to help Ukraine are as irrelevant as they are cynical.
Like Turkey, Azerbaijan plays both sides of the issue and today serves as a hub for Russian gas exports.
The Safeguarding Humanitarian Corridors Act has no waiver. If Azerbaijan blocks U.S. humanitarian assistance, it must face severe sanctions. Azerbaijan is also ripe for Magnitsky Act sanctions, including those that enable corruption or bless human rights violations.
To act against Azerbaijan but ignore Turkey is akin to treating the symptom but ignoring the disease. It is time to declare Mr. Erdogan’s ambition as incompatible with Western democracy and cooperation. If Lachin remains closed, Turkish steel and aluminum should face American tariffs.
The U.S. presence at Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base should not be a “get out of jail free” card for Mr. Erdogan. Alternatives exist in Romania and Greece. It is time to pull the plug on Incirlik.
Most importantly, the United States must focus on the forest and not the trees. Religious freedom and democracy are not chits to negotiate away to win an agreement that will not last a month.
Standing on principle is not diplomatic inconvenience; sometimes, it is the wisest diplomacy of all.
• Sam Brownback is a former U.S. senator, governor, and ambassador at large for International Religious Freedom. Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
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