The notorious Wagner Group mercenary army hasn’t taken part in major combat operations in Ukraine since its founder, Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, fled on June 24 after abruptly calling off a brief mutiny against Moscow’s military leadership.
That doesn’t mean the paramilitary group, an essential prop for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign and security policy in the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, closed up shop after nearly dragging Russia into a civil war.
The Defense Department estimated that the Wagner Group had about 40,000 fighters in Ukraine alongside regular Russian forces, many recruited by Mr. Prigozhin from Russian jails. Ukraine is only one of the hot spots where the Wagner Group has been involved since its founding in 2014. The mercenary group has been crucial in extending the Kremlin’s influence in Africa through lucrative contracts for security services and natural resources such as gold, timber and oil.
In an angry speech days after the revolt, Mr. Putin revealed that the cash-strapped Kremlin paid Mr. Prigozhin’s company some $946 million for its services in the 12 months ending in May.
After Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin sent diplomats to Mali to reassure its junta that power in Moscow was stable and that Wagner Group contract troops in Africa would continue their mission without their mercurial founder calling the shots.
The Wagner Group “provides a lot of benefits to Russia, and it’s something that these authoritarian governments have come to rely on,” said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russian Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Wagner has been historically allowed to pursue business interests so long as it didn’t hurt the Kremlin’s interests.”
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Many expected Russia’s war on neighboring Ukraine would spell the end of the Wagner Group’s activities in Africa. Moscow pulled many mercenaries out of the Central African Republic and other countries to fight in Ukraine, including the battle for control of Bakhmut this year. Yet analysts say the Wagner Group has mutated into an aggressive and predatory machine not totally under Mr. Putin’s control and more potent than ever in Africa.
“Using corruption, terror, and extreme violence, Wagner has been able to maintain its presence on the African continent ever since,” said Nathalia Dukhan, a senior investigator with The Sentry, a private organization that tracks the financing of armed conflicts and atrocities.
A Council on Foreign Relations profile estimated that 5,000 Wagner Group employees were deployed across Africa. Mr. Putin has allowed other private security forces to flourish inside Russia, but the Wagner Group’s amorphous structure makes it hard to assess and control.
“Rather than a single entity, Wagner is a complex network of businesses and mercenary groups whose operations have been closely tied to the Russian military and intelligence community,” the Council on Foreign Relations said.
The situation in Africa is evolving after the Wagner Group rebellion, and even the most astute analyst would be hard-pressed to fully predict what can happen overnight or in a few months, Ms. Dukhan said.
“The group is resilient, creative, fearless and predatory. The Wagner model has been profitable and successful in projecting Russian influence,” she said. “Wagner may undergo some adjustments, it may shift personnel or even rebrand itself, but its model of ultra-violent domination and plunder remains a serious threat to international peace and security.”
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The Wagner Group’s business model in Africa has been built around military protection to autocratic leaders such as Faustin-Archange Touadera of the Central African Republic in exchange for access to the country’s natural resources such as diamonds and gold.
“The people of the Central African Republic have suffered horrific campaigns of terror and looting,” Ms. Dukhan said.
NBC News reported this month that hundreds of Wagner Group members were captured on camera packing up for departure from an airfield in the Central African Republic. It was unclear whether they were being moved out, had been dismissed or were part of a regular troop rotation.
Fidele Gouandjika, an aide to Mr. Touadera, told the network that there had been “no change” in the Wagner Group’s presence since the failed coup and that the local Wagner Group senior commander was still running operations.
In an unexplained twist, Mr. Putin met with Mr. Progzhin and some of his company’s senior figures in Moscow only days after the revolt, which the Russian president denounced as treason. Although the mercenary army shot down several Russian aircraft, killed a reported 20 Russian troops sent to block the path to Moscow and took control of the Southern Military District headquarters, the meeting indicated that the Kremlin had to tread carefully to rein in the mercenary force.
Skilled fighters and cannon fodder
Analysts say the Wagner Group includes military veterans and professional contract soldiers, many with experience in Russian security organizations. It also has recruited poorly trained amateurs and criminals swept off the street. Each one has use.
“Putin needs the cannon fodder Wagner provides to allow his military to maintain a favorable force-to-force and force-to-terrain ratio against the Ukrainian armed forces, especially as the latter wages a large-scale counteroffensive,” Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute, wrote in an analysis after the aborted mutiny.
The Kremlin employs different strategies to manage Wagner Group troops in Africa and the Middle East. Moscow is trying to rein in the mercenaries’ independence in Syria by pressing them to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry. Those who refuse to sign are reportedly flown out of the country.
The situation in Africa is more complicated, Mr. Kasapoglu said.
“Wagner exerts a strong presence on the [African] continent, and it is hard for even the most powerful elements of the Russian leadership to throw Prigozhin’s loyal triggerman there under the bus,” he said.
Analysts with The Sentry accused the Wagner Group of instituting a campaign of terror in the Central African Republic since it set foot in the country about five years ago. They said Wagner and Mr. Touadera raised a parallel army that could be controlled for the regime’s interests to “annihilate” enemies.
“While Touadera’s inner circle retains control of operations within the capital Bangui, Wagner has managed to establish military control of operations outside Bangui, for which their motto is ‘Leave no trace’ — in other words, kill everyone, including women and children,” analysts with The Sentry wrote in “Architects of Terror,” a recent report about the Wagner Group’s activities in Africa.
The State Department accused the Wagner Group of committing atrocities in Mali in West Africa since its arrival in late 2021 after a military coup. In March 2022, witnesses reported a massacre of 300 villagers by Malian government forces and about 100 Russian-speaking men. They lined up the victims in rows of 15 to 20, ordered them to kneel and executed them.
“The NGO Human Rights Watch has called the Mourah killings Mali’s worst atrocity in over a decade,” the State Department said.
Analysts with The Sentry said the United Nations should establish a coalition to counter the Wagner Group’s influence in Africa, similar to the global effort to defeat ISIS.
“The U.S. should designate the Wagner Group as a foreign terrorist organization,” The Sentry said. “The group meets the three legal criteria for designation — a foreign organization engaging in terrorist activity that threatens national security.”
Regardless of other countries’ actions, Russia will have its work cut out to persuade the Wagner Group’s senior leadership to sign employment contracts with the Defense Ministry. Wagner Group recruits pride themselves on their independent culture and will hesitate to submit to any outside authority, Mr. Hardie said.
“It’s going to be a tough challenge. I honestly don’t know what Wagner is going to look like two months from now,” he said.
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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