OPINION:
Polls repeatedly show that voters don’t want a rematch of President Biden versus former President Donald Trump in 2024.
Republicans are going through a formal primary process to determine their nominee. GOP voters support Mr. Trump’s nomination in early polling by more than 20 percentage points.
Democratic voters are not getting the same choice. Establishment Democrats have chosen to coronate Mr. Biden as their nominee — eliminating debates and an open primary process even with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson challenging Mr. Biden’s candidacy.
Now, the Democratic establishment is freaking out over what could be a third-party run.
No Labels, a centrist group of Democrats and Republicans, is organizing to get on the ballot in 2024 if it’s left to a Biden-Trump race. They’re courting Sen. Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who is scheduled to headline a July 17 town hall for the group in New Hampshire.
Mr. Manchin told CNN last week he hasn’t ruled out anything, including a third-party run. No Labels says it’s spending $70 million to launch an independent unity ticket.
“The prospect that No Labels will nominate a candidate at their April convention and gain ballot access across the country is causing an increasing amount of alarm in the Democratic Party,” Axios reported on July 14. The news outlet quotes Democratic operatives worried that a third-party run would throw the general election to Mr. Trump, noting that Senate Democratic chiefs will be briefed on the third-party threat on July 27.
No Labels insists there’s a path forward for a third-party candidate, citing a recently conducted poll where an independent candidate, on the ballot with Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, starts the race with 21% support. The group insists it would be able to increase that base into a winning margin and not be a spoiler.
No Labels says its polling shows the public is open to a third-party candidate. According to an NBC News poll last month, 44% of registered voters say they are willing to consider supporting a third-party or independent presidential candidate if Messrs. Biden and Trump are the two major-party nominees in 2024.
No Labels is already on the ballot in five states, and hopes to get on all 50.
The most successful third-party presidential run came from Ross Perot in 1992, where he garnered 19% of the vote yet won no electoral votes in the presidential contest. Perot was a spoiler, however, siphoning Republican and independent votes from President George W. Bush, who then lost that contest 35.5% to Bill Clinton’s 43%.
More recently, third-party candidates have helped Republicans win razor-thin elections.
In 2016, 6% of all voters cast presidential ballots for third-party candidates and write-in candidates, with Libertarian Gary Johnson earning more than 3% of the national vote and Green Party nominee Jill Stein getting more than 1%. In the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — where Mr. Trump eked out a victory against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — many political strategists say it was the third-party vote that made the difference.
Contrast that with 2020 — where third-party candidates were denied ballot access in many swing states — and Mr. Biden’s victory. Mr. Trump’s vote share was virtually the same as in 2016. Mr. Biden, however, gained 2 to 3 points across the board. Most notable was in Wisconsin, where the Green Party candidate was denied ballot access, and Mr. Trump lost 48.8% to 49.5% in a head-to-head matchup with Mr. Biden.
Moreover, Democratic voters this cycle appear more willing to jump to a third-party candidate. According to the NBC News poll, 45% of Democrats said they’d consider backing a third-party or independent presidential candidate, compared with 34% of Republicans willing to do the same.
No Labels’ entering the race is indeed a problem Democrats should be worried about. So is progressive Cornel West, who is running as the Green Party nominee and is already on ballots in 16 states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and New Mexico, as well as the District of Columbia.
So, yes, by denying their voters an open primary and coronating Mr. Biden as their presidential nominee, Democrats are worried their base may revolt at the ballot box. It is the voters who decide elections, after all, not the party establishment — no matter how hard they may try.
Third-party candidates, come one, come all. Let American voters have a choice in who they want to be their president.
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