Gretzky’s goals record is in Ovechkin’s sights. When could ‘The Great 8’ pass ‘The Great One’?

The ladder Alex Ovechkin is climbing only has one more rung. Passed are Brett Hull, Jaromir Jagr and, most recently, Gordie Howe. 

Up next: Wayne Gretzky. 

No one has a crystal ball. There’s no way to know if or when “The Great 8” will pass “The Great One” atop the NHL’s all-time goals list. But that doesn’t mean we can’t guess. 

On the matter of whether Ovechkin will pass Gretzky’s record of 894 goals, most in the NHL consider that to be a foregone conclusion. Heck, the Washington Capitals’ superstar is certainly making it seem that way. Ovechkin scored another hat trick Saturday — his second in December and 30th of his career — to put him at 806 goals.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee. Scoring 89 more goals at 37 or older — for nearly everyone in hockey history — is a tall task. Gretzky retired at 38 years old and scored just 32 goals in his final two seasons combined. 

But considering Ovechkin has barely slowed down in the goal-scoring department — 50 goals in 2021-22 and on pace for 54 this season — it’s fair to say his odds of passing Gretzky are more favorable. 

“It’s not even a question that he will pass me, and I think that’s great,” Gretzky told The New York Times during Ovechkin’s 2021-22 campaign. “There is no doubt that ultimately, he will break the record.”

OK, so let’s say he’s going to pass Gretzky. When will it happen? 

There are a few ways to go about calculating this. The first is to assume Ovechkin doesn’t lose a step whatsoever. While this may seem far-fetched for a player graying — literally and figuratively — it’s not so crazy for the Russian winger. 

In his career, Ovechkin has averaged 0.614 goals per game. Over an 82-game season, that’s 50 goals — a tally he’s hit nine times, including last season. If Ovechkin continues to score at his career pace, it will take him about 145 more games to pass Gretzky. 

But, surely, he’s slowed down some in recent years … right? Well, not really. In the last five seasons, Ovechkin is averaging .642 goals per contest — slightly higher than his career mark. 

Yes, he’s no longer the 22-year-old who scored 65 goals and won the Hart Memorial Trophy as the sport’s MVP, but as a goal-scorer, he’s basically the same as he was a decade ago. 

If 145 games are how long it’s going to take Ovechkin to pass Gretzky, when exactly do we all need to mark our calendars and take off work? That’s where it gets tricky. 

Ovechkin has already had three shortened seasons in his career — 2012-13 due to the NHL’s lockout and 2019-20 and 2020-21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In total, he lost about 73 games due to those three shortened campaigns. 

But another pandemic is (hopefully) unlikely, as is another labor dispute (the current collective bargaining agreement ends after the 2025-26 season}. So, in theory, there shouldn’t be another shortened season in at least a few years. 

Injuries, suspensions and other missed games could also hinder Ovechkin in his climb toward No. 894. But Ovechkin has remained remarkably healthy in his 18-year NHL career despite playing with a physical style — totaling 3,023 hits in 1,313 games. Ovechkin has missed just 47 games in his career (almost three a year), and only 27 of those were due to injury. 

As Ovechkin famously said about himself in 2006: the “Russian machine never breaks.”

So, if we assume Ovechkin is going to play 79 games a season moving forward (missing three contests per year) and it will take 145 games at his career goals pace (0.614 per game) to score 89 more times, that means he will pass Gretzky approximately 26 games into the 2024-25 season at age 39 — likely sometime in early December 2024. 

That timeline, however, is quite bullish — even for a player as prolific as Ovechkin. Drop his goals per game moving forward down to exactly half a score per contest (still a high mark for any player, especially one his age), and it would take Ovechkin 178 games to pass Gretzky. That scenario would see Ovechkin pass Gretzky approximately 59 games into the 2024-25 season — likely sometime in late February 2025. 

But what if Ovechkin does slow down? What if he scores at the worst pace he’s ever scored in a single season — 0.402 goals per game in 2016-17? If that’s the case, it would take Ovechkin 222 games to score 89 more goals. That pace would then put him on track to pass Gretzky 24 games into the 2025-26 season — around late November 2025. 

While Ovechkin and Capitals fans would surely like to see him score No. 894 as soon as possible, the most bearish scenario may be the most interesting. At 40 years old in his last season under contract with the Capitals, Ovechkin could be chasing down Gretzky. 

Whether it’s December 2024, February 2025, November 2025 or anywhere in between, every one-timer, wrister and backhand from Ovechkin will be seen as another step toward Gretzky.