OPINION:
The balloon of China was shot down by the U.S. after hovering above Canada and the United States for a week starting on Jan. 28.
Before taking action, the U.S. military had assessed that the balloon posed no danger to normal aviation activities and was unable to provide China with more intelligence than its spy satellites would do.
These assessments could be correct. But those two purposes might not be China’s true intentions of sending it over to the U.S.
There are two logic systems in the world: the common logic and the logic unique to China. Anyone who attempts to use conventional logic to interpret China’s action will inevitably be fooled. China’s deceitful interactions with the world in the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequential losses the world has suffered to this date can serve as a fresh reference to this notion.
So, what might really be behind the China balloon show if the China logic is to be tracked?
China might have used the balloon incursion as a symbolic gesture to boost the confidence of China’s zealous nationalists that China is capable of penetrating the U.S. defense line even with a low-tech aviation tool. This scheme fits well with China’s continued competitive approach toward the U.S. on all fronts. It echoes China’s increasingly confrontational encounters with the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea. That the balloon show has been loudly appraised by China’s netizens also supports this view. In addition, China could harvest a bonus benefit from this show — i.e., rallying its anti-U.S. allies by poking fun at America for its defense flaws.
China might have used the balloon invasion to test America’s tolerance of territory incursion. China’s balloons have been spotted above the U.S. territory at least five times since 2016, three while Donald Trump was president and twice on President Biden’s watch. Emboldened by the previous successes, which were brief and unchallenged, the latest one was bold, with an unambitious approach to its supposed targets over an extended stay.
But China’s gain might way exceed the above two. By observing the American response and the rationale behind it, China has learned that the U.S. would be reluctant to take military action if those measures might cause civilian casualties. This is the Achilles’ heel of the U.S. and its allies. China has taken note for future exploitation.
China might also have a strategy to trick the U.S. into a cry-wolf game. By constantly sending harmless objects into American territory, China could condition U.S. defense resources and civilians to the otherwise unacceptable invasion. Once this is done, it would be China’s call to send the real wolf.
What might the Chinese wolf be like? The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave some hints in its protest to the U.S. shooting down of its latest balloon. The ministry claimed that the downed balloon was a civilian aviation vessel on a research voyage. And here is exactly where the wolf is crouching. China launched an aggressive military development strategy named “Military-Civil Fusion” years ago to mobilize civilian resources to help China achieve military dominance by 2049, enforceable by law. Thus, any civilian entity from China could, in theory, become a military unit at any moment without advance notice.
Huawei, for instance, is on paper a private civilian telecommunications company. But it is secretly funded and directed by China’s military. It functions as a domestic and international surveillance machine.
The U.S. is not the only country targeted by China’s unspoken tactics. Taiwan, for instance, has been experiencing accelerated aggressions in the air by China’s air force and civilian drones, on the sea by its naval vessels and civilian tugboats, and on Taiwan’s soil by China’s pro-unification operations.
While the celebrity balloon from China was destined to be shot down, a second balloon popped up over Latin America. Similar balloons, suspected to also be from China, have visited Japan and Taiwan in the past on mysterious missions.
China does not seem to be changing course. Will the world take note of what China has done in the past and be prepared for what might happen in the future?
• Daniel Jia is the founder of the consulting firm DJ Integral Services. He writes analytical reports on public-related matters, with special focus on U.S.-China and Taiwan-China relations. There is no conflict of interest to be disclosed.
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